NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Memphis Tigers

Our staff provides their prediction and analysis as Florida State searches for its first victory of the 2024 season.

Oct 28, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Florida State is coming off a BYE week as the team tries to steady itself following a 0-2 start. Things aren't going to get any easier on Saturday afternoon with a focused and undefeated Memphis squad traveling to Tallahassee. This is a game that the Tigers have had circled on their calendar for quite some time and they likely sense an opportunity to upset the reeling Seminoles.

Memphis is 2-0 early in the 2024 season with relatively easy victories over North Alabama and Troy. The Tigers are entering their fifth year under head coach Ryan Silverfield, who has a close relationship with Mike Norvell dating back to when they both coached at the program. The team may be considered a Group of 5 opponent but they're vying for an opportunity to make the first 12-team College Football Playoff.

Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Memphis Tigers

This is an opportunity for the Tigers to earn a marquee victory on the road, even if Florida State is no longer the top-10 team it was to begin the year. Memphis sports a fourth-year starting quarterback in Seth Henigan, a tough SEC transfer running back, two standout wide receivers, and an intriguing 3-3-5 defensive scheme. Plus, every starter listed on Memphis' offense and defense are either seniors or juniors.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Tigers.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

This wasn't the beginning to the 2024 season that I anticipated for Florida State or for my streak of score predictions (correct game outcome predictions). The Seminoles just haven't seemed to play together and when things begin to spiral, they don't look like they trust each other. Maybe we undervalued the amount of leadership that the team lost this offseason but whatever it is, the product simply isn't clicking on the field.

I'm not sure how the Seminoles turn things around. There are a multitude of issues on both sides of the ball that can't be fixed overnight. Maybe the BYE week is the beginning of the turning point but that all depends on if Florida State can take care of business against Memphis. I've had concerns about this game ever since the schedule was released earlier this year.

The Tigers are a legit threat and present a veteran team with a chip on their shoulder. This is a massive game for their program, considering the implications it could have on Memphis for the rest of the year. I think they could even have a little extra edge because of Florida State's slow start. Siilverfield and his team were expecting to have a chance to earn a ranked win. If they do walk away victorious, it'll still look good on the resume but not as good as a few weeks ago.

I'm at the point where I can't trust the Seminoles until they translate what we've seen in practice over to game day. I didn't expect to get here just three games into the season but it is what it is. I've got Memphis walking out of the 850 with a win and Florida State dropping to 0-3. This is the first time I've picked against FSU in the regular season since October 14, 2022 (they ended up losing to Clemson). Since then, the 'Noles rewarded me (and the fanbase) with 17 straight wins in the regular season in what was a 20-straight score prediction streak leading up to the Georgia Tech defeat.

Maybe they'll provide another gift by going against my score prediction this week.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 31, Seminoles 20

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Florida State has to get this offense moving more consistently in games. In order to do that though we need to see the run game get going. And for that to happen, the offensive line needs to step up. With this much experience on the front line, there’s no reason why this run game should be as atrocious as it has been in the last two games.

FSU’s pass rush has to be a menace in this game. Right now, your “star” players on the defensive line haven’t shown up to expectations. Memphis has a veteran quarterback that knows how to get the ball downfield with Seth Henigan, can the pass rush show up on Saturday to give him problems?

We shall see but we actually need to see it first happen on Saturday before I can predict another game in their favor.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 27, Seminoles 17

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

I'm at the point where I was a few seasons ago and like I have been with basketball: until FSU proves me otherwise, I'm picking against them. They've shown nothing to this point for me to be confident in their abilities to win a football game. The spread of 6.5 in FSU's favor on FanDuel seems like a gift compared to other sites.

Florida State is going to struggle to stop the run again and it'll open up some deep shots for Seth Henigan, who is as experienced as it gets in college football. I'll begrudgingly take the Tigers.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 30, Seminoles 20

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

It's safe to say that this is not the start the Florida State Seminoles expected for their 2024 campaign. Two conference losses in back-to-back weeks have left the 'Noles without a win entering Week 3 and playing from well behind the sticks. Fans and analysts alike have been quick to poke holes in head coach Mike Norvell's program, and the discourse has reached a fever pitch in Tallahassee. From third down fight songs to stadium renovation complaints, the distractions have begun to surround the Seminoles on all sides as the Florida State faithful hysterically grasp at straws in search of some answer for the team's present troubles. Luckily for the 'Noles, they're coming off of a much needed bye week that has afforded them the opportunity to block out the noise and re-focus their efforts. Hopefully, Norvell and his squad were able to utilize the time to address the team's issues and improve their play, because Norvell's former program, the Memphis Tigers, is coming to town and they're far from a pushover. 

Memphis is currently on a 4-game win streak dating back to November 24th of last year, wherein they've scored over 35 points in every contest (including their loss to SMU just before the streak began). The Tigers have been able to carry that momentum in the 2024 season due largely in part to the overwhelming amount of returning production on the roster, highlighted by their veteran quarterback Seth Henigan. Through two weeks, Henigan has thrown for 469 total yards and 3 TDs and possesses the nation's 19th best QBR (83.4). Under his leadership, the Tigers are averaging 39.5 points per game, 234. 5 passing yards per game, and 135 rushing yards per game. The Florida State defense, which is giving up an average of 352.5 total yards per game, will have its hands full with the rest of the Memphis offense, which possesses playmakers both on the ground and in the receiving room. Memphis RB Mario Anderson is coming off of a 125-yard, 2 TD performance against Troy the week prior, and I fully expect the Tigers to relentlessly attack the Seminole defense, which is giving up an average of 226.5 rushing yards per game, on the ground. The battle in the trenches will be one to keep an eye on come Saturday. Florida State will need to disrupt Henigan in the pocket and stuff the run if it wishes to slow down a Memphis offense that is currently in a groove. 

On the flip side of the ball, Florida State's struggles have been apparent. Surprisingly, the passing game (232.5 yards per game) ranks 62nd in the country, but the 'Noles have found no answer for a run game that is averaging an abysmal 59.5 yards per game and currently ranks among the worst in the country (128th). Not to mention, Memphis' defense has been prolific at stopping the run, thus far. FSU's offensive woes have shown up on the scoreboard as well, or haven't in this case. The Seminoles are averaging 17 points per game, which ranks 118th in the country, and they'll need to rectify that immediately because Memphis is boasting a defense that has allowed an average of 8.5 points per game. Granted, the Tigers have faced off against the likes of Troy and North Alabama, but the way the Seminoles are playing offense right now does not inspire much confidence in the assumption that they're better outright (yes, I know how dramatic that sounds). Plus, recent injuries have forced Florida State to make even more adjustments than initially expected. Like I've said before, there's "talent" on the roster but that talent has yet to materialize into anything serviceable for the 'Noles, which is why they find themselves in their current predicament. 

Most Vegas oddsmakers have the line set at (-6.5) in favor of the Seminoles, and ESPN's FPI Matchup Predictor gives Florida State a 73% chance at victory. Look, on paper, Florida State is the far more talented team (if the reported $12 million price tag isn't already a dead giveaway). If the defensive front plays to its full potential, the 'Noles win. If the Florida State run game gets back on track, the 'Noles win. If the offense finds a quarterback that can operate efficiently, the 'Noles win. If the team plays to the level both the coaching staff and the fanbase believe they are capable of playing to, then the 'Noles win. However, we've seen nothing to date that shows us that any of these pieces are finally going to fall into place. Memphis is a well coached team with a roster that is experienced and harmonized. Right now, Florida State doesn't look like either. The Tigers could very well come into Doak on Saturday and leave the 'Noles with a 0-3 record, which would cause an uproar (plus, the fact that it's Norvell's former program would not help one bit). While I'm hopeful that's not the case, the once cautious optimism that I possessed has been supplanted by pure caution, and until the Seminoles put forth a performance that instills a belief in their ability to win games, I'm not inclined to take anything at face value. This is painful to write but...I would not be upset about being wrong about this one come Saturday evening.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 24, Seminoles 14

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Florida State must come together and fire on all cylinders to overcome its tarnished 0-2 start. With back-to-back losses seemingly coming out of nowhere, a decisive victory over Memphis could help propel them into a salvageable season.

After the loss to Boston College, they’ve kind of isolated themselves into a “prove it” box and need some vocal leadership on the football field within the locker room of both sides of the ball.

The matchup will give the Seminole secondary a chance to be a bright spot after facing two brutal rushing attacks, but issues upfront for the Florida State offense have limited the run game which is something quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hasn’t overcome. FSU will have wide receiver Hykeem Williams back but lost running back Jaylin Lucas with a season-ending injury. Right tackle Jeremiah Byers is questionable, and Florida State will still be without offensive coordinator Alex Atkins.

Until some life is injected into the Seminoles this season, it is what it is. I am going to go with Vegas, however, and have the ‘Noles winning by a touchdown if they can possess and move the ball without giving up control of the clock on the ground. Another loss would be scathing for a team that started the season with such high expectations.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Seminoles 38, Tigers 31

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

With an 0-2 start -- both losses coming in ACC play -- Florida State hasn't proven capable of being able to do enough offensively to win a game. Playing Memphis poses that opportunity for the Seminoles, but it's hard to pick DJ Uiagalelei and the rest of the squad until they've proven capable of winning a game.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 31, Seminoles 28

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

It pains me to say this, but I am just not confident in this football team going into week three, leading me to go with the Tigers. Although I believe that the 'Noles are taking steps in the right direction as the connection between DJ Uiagalelei and wide receivers seems to have improved since the BC game, I don't think anything has improved to the degree it needs to.

It also goes beyond the sheer talent on the field. Last season, even in games FSU was struggling in or when everything was going against them, they managed to find a way to win. I haven't seen anything even remotely close to that since December. 

If this team is going to take a step in the right direction, this is the week to do it, as despite Memphis outscoring opponents 78-17 this season, FSU wins when it comes to talent on the field (granted this has been the case for the previous two games). It really will just come down to how badly they want it. We already know Memphis is going to give it their all this weekend, they have no reason not to go head-hunting in Doak, but if the Seminoles can manage to figure out how to win again, I think it could be a huge turnaround for FSU.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 21, Seminoles 17

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

This Florida State team put simply, is not physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball, or at least they haven’t shown it yet. Memphis’ rushing offense (90th in FBS) appears to be good enough to get the job done in Tallahassee (FSU is 122nd in rush defense) as they gave up 263 yards on the ground to Boston College at home in Week 1. Moreover, the ’Noles still can’t seem to figure out its passing game which invites its opponents to stack the box. Call me a doubting Thomas, but there needs to be a major improvement at the most fundamental levels of football from the Seminoles before they can add a W to their record.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-2

Tigers 27, Seminoles 16

CONSENSUS: Memphis (7-1)

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READ MORE: Wednesday Practice Observations For Florida State Prior To Memphis

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