NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as Florida State tries to continue its winning streak against Mack Brown.

Oct 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell looks on from field against the Miami Hurricanes during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The first two-thirds of the 2024 season are over and Florida State has just one win to show for it through eight games. Though no longer bowl-eligible, the Seminoles have an opportunity to end the season on a strong note and carry some momentum into the offseason after a disappointing year. The good news is that FSU will play three of its final four games at home, the bad news is that three of those four opponents (North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida) are all fighting for a shot at the postseason.

The Seminoles do have a long streak in their favor entering the matchup against the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina head coach Mack Brown is 0-11 against Florida State (0-8 at UNC, 0-3 at Tulane) dating back to his first matchup against the program in 1985. This is probably the best chance Brown will have to defeat FSU, considering the way the season has gone thus far in Tallahassee.

North Carolina is coming off a win over Virginia where its defense recorded a whopping ten sacks. That could present an issue for a Florida State offensive line that has started seven different starting combinations in eight games. Plus, the Tar Heels are averaging 190.8 rushing yards per game, led by Omarion Hampton, who has already crossed the 1,000+ mark in just eight appearances.

READ MORE: UNC Head Coach Mack Brown Discusses FSU Ahead Of Return To Tallahassee

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Tar Heels.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Another weekend, another embarrassing loss for Florida State. Falling by 3+ touchdowns to Miami is unacceptable in any year, even if this is sizing up to be arguably the worst in program history. The majority of the goodwill the Seminoles have built up over the last two years has essentially been thrown into the trash and it's clear major changes are needed if Mike Norvell is going to remain in Tallahassee long-term.

At this point, with eight games played, it's hard to believe that FSU can do anything to fix its pathetic offense. The Seminoles have tried quarterback changes, they've played younger skill players, they've tinkered with the offensive line, and nothing has worked. When something does finally start to go right, Florida State shoots itself right in the foot with a bad pass, dropped ball, missed block, or penalty. It feels like an episode of 'Punk'd' with Ashton Kutcher each weekend spending four quarters watching this offense.

The defense has been playing slightly better but there's still much to be desired. Three of the starting four of the defensive front were missing in action against Miami as Marvin Jones Jr., Patrick Payton, and Joshua Farmer combined for one tackle in 156 snaps last Saturday. That's unbelievably bad and it's worse when you figure out that redshirt freshman KJ Sampson recorded six tackles in just 17 snaps.

I don't know why anything would get better against North Carolina when this team has nothing left to play for. I also thought the practice I viewed on Wednesday was arguably the worst of the season. There's not really much of a reason to think positively going into a matchup against the Tar Heels, who are still trying to clinch bowl eligibility. It might get ugly on Saturday.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-3

Tar Heels 38, Seminoles 13

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

This one I’m going to keep fairly short because of two stats that standout to me.

Number one: North Carolina is ranked 29th in the country in points per game at 32.3. Yes, you can say they’ve faced bad teams to score those points. Surprise! FSU is a bad football team. Doesn’t matter.

Number two: The Tar Heels are averaging 3.3 sacks per game, which is seventh in the country. They recorded 10 sacks LAST WEEKEND against Virginia. Yes, Virginia is not a good team. Surprise! Florida State is worse. And don’t get me started about the Seminoles’ offensive line.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-3

Tar Heels 28, Seminoles 16

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

I don't care how bad a team's defense is, Florida State's offense is worse. Omarion Hampton will likely run all over FSU's defense, and the offense won't be enough to overcome it. UNC's passing game has been rough, but it won't matter towards the final result.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 23, Seminoles 10

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Florida State has shown little development over the course of eight weeks. Therefore, the 'Noles have left me with little reason to think anything will be different going forward. The statistics aren't far off from that belief, as well. UNC has given up an average of 28.4 points per game, which ranks 96th among FBS programs. However, that average is significantly affected by a 70-point performance from James Madison earlier in the season. For the most part, UNC is a middle-of-the-road team, with team averages that rank in the 30-40 range when compared to the rest of the country.

The problem here is that Florida State is statistically poor in all respects. The rushing attack ranks 131st, the passing attack has dipped into the low 100 range, and the defense yields an average of 379.4 yards and 26.4 points per game. FSU's most glaring issue, however, is their inability to find the end zone. The 'Noles average the nation's second worst scoring offense at 14.9 points per game, and as is common knowledge at this point, they are the only FBS team to not score more than 21 points at any point this season. Despite improvements from the defensive side of the ball, Florida State's offense remains dead in the water. As long as that's the case, there's very little reason to believe that the Seminoles can outscore any of their opponents, especially a UNC team that hasn't scored less than 20 since their Week 1 game against Minnesota. 

The outlook is grim, and it's not hard to see why. ESPN's matchup predictor positions UNC as the slight favorite to leave with a victory at 52.9%, which means this game is essentially a coin flip. Vegas oddsmakers share this sentiment with a spread of just (-2) in favor of the Tar Heels at the time of writing this article. For all intents and purposes, most believe the game is a toss-up, and one that the 'Noles can potentially win. As I've stated before, I've seen little from the 'Noles that showcase a team that is capable of scoring enough to keep the Tar Heels close, especially a Tar Heel team that is coming off consecutive performances of 30+ points.

I believe the Seminole defense will keep things within striking distance for a large majority of the game, but offensive deficiencies will keep the 'Noles off of the board and allow the Tar Heels to slowly accumulate points and eventually push things out of reach. Unfortunately, the Florida State home crowd will have to watch yet another first come off of the board for an FSU opponent. UNC will leave Tallahassee with the first win over the 'Noles for a Mack Brown-led football program in the history of the coach's illustrious career. In the meantime, I'll be praying for some sort of Halloween miracle on behalf of the 'Noles.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 17

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

There can’t be much of a case made for Florida State this season. The record speaks for itself, and it appears that whatever transfers they’ve brought in to replenish their team have either been wrought with injury or, for the most part, been misevaluated. There needs to be a spark on offense for any chance at a win this weekend.

It is a home game, and Norvell is arguably the better coach, but if there isn’t anything happening in the offensive line and receiver rooms, the trickle-down effect will likely provide another anemic glimpse into a team that has been put through the wringer, unable to outperform their competition.

This is a tough game to predict because Florida State has a very talented defensive front and secondary that have started to make strides in the right direction, but there have been no answers at wide receiver aside from Ja’Khi Douglas and some of the newcomers on offense. Running backs Lawrance Toafili and Sam Singleton have been bright spots, but in the absence of the players that were brought in, they’ve seemed to be the only bullets in what was once a fully loaded FSU team last year.

Doom and gloom isn’t necessarily my thing, but the two biggest flags that stand out for me are Florida State’s inability to score more than 21 points all season (averaging around 14 per game) and the fact that UNC has a 1,000-yard rusher going against a defensive line that has struggled against the run.

It is a little weird that the over/under is 50.5, and UNC is only favored by 2.5. I’m going to go with UNC winning by three scores.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 35, Seminoles 14

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

The Florida State Seminoles' disastrous season will be one game closer to the end, though it won't come without a tough loss. North Carolina has proven capable of scoring points, which the Seminoles have struggled with. The Seminoles will take yet another tough loss while the young guys are showing flashes of the future.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-3

Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 17

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

It's hard to see any hope in this team, week after week they continue to give me no sense of optimism that things are heading in the right direction this season, and even though even just a few weeks ago I still had hope that the Seminoles would be able to get another win this weekend, I no longer have reason to believe that is going to happen. The Tar Heels are coming off their best win of the season after blowing out Virginia 41-14, and even though I think that the Florida State defense will keep the score a bit lower, this UNC team has scored more than 34 points in five of their eight games, meaning that even though they sit at 4-4, they still have some offensive production, which is what is missing in Tallahassee this year.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 13

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

If Florida State cannot stop the run, I just don’t see a path to victory for them. North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton is fourth in nation in rushing yards. The FSU run defense is, uh, not so great in that regard.

The UNC defense is not exceptional either. They are in the middle of the pack (nationwide) stopping the run and in the bottom tier against the pass.

However, UNC has the luxury of being proficient in what FSU struggles defending, which of course is the run game. The FSU offense isn’t really proficient in anything.

Therefore, it appears the Seminoles will have to either force turnovers, stop the run, hold on to the ball for a while and score with the minimal chances they receive, or win in a shootout.

I truly don’t see any one of those happening, because they haven’t proven they could accomplish those feats against anyone all year.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 27, Seminoles 17

CONSENSUS: North Carolina (8-0)

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