NoleGameday Staff Season Predictions: Can Florida State Remain On Top Of ACC In 2024?

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis with the 2024 season less than a week away.

Apr 20, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) runs the ball during the Spring Showcase at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

There's no more time to waste talking about it. Game week is finally here for the No. 10 Florida State Seminoles. Just five days from today, the Seminoles will kick off their 2024 campaign with an international affair against Georgia Tech in Ireland. FSU is looking to start off the season with a victory for the third straight year while chasing another ACC crown.

Compared to last year, this team looks a lot different. On offense, the Seminoles will be fielding a new starting quarterback, running back, and tight end as well as replacing their top two wide receivers and both starting guards. Looking over to the other side of the ball, Florida State lost a star defensive end, two defensive tackles, both starting linebackers and three starters in the secondary. That doesn't include various members of the two-deep who departed via the transfer portal or due to graduation.

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The schedule starts with a neutral-site matchup against the Yellow Jackets followed by three straight home games. The Seminoles will travel to SMU at the end of September before a monumental rematch with Clemson in Tallahassee. The backhalf of the schedule is no joke with road contests against Duke, Miami, and Notre Dame alongside home tilts with North Carolina and Florida.

Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as the Seminoles undergo final preparations for the 2024 season.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Last season, I pretty much nailed it while predicting Florida State to have an undefeated campaign along with Jordan Travis (OPOTY), Kalen DeLoach (DPOTY), and Shyheim Brown (BOPOTY) as my players of the year. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull off something similar in 2024 because there are so many different versions of this team that we could potentially get on Saturday.

Mike Norvell believes this is the strongest and fastest team that he's ever had in Tallahassee. I don't doubt that's true after watching nearly every preseason practice but consistency is still a work in progress, especially on offense when it comes to the passing attack. That also means DJ Uiagalelei and the wide receivers have a chance to improve as the year progresses - they should be better in November compared to August and September.

I expect the Seminoles to rely on a fierce running attack that will feature multiple backs and a veteran offensive line. Florida State's offensive line has combined to appear in 345 games with 210 starts at the college level. They'll serve well in opening up holes for Lawrance Toafili, Roydell Williams, Jaylin Lucas, Caziah Holmes, Samuel Singleton, and Kam Davis. Plus, there's enough depth to help the unit make it through a long season.

The defense shouldn't see a major drop-off while relying on potential stars such as Shyheim Brown, Azareye'h Thomas, Fentrell Cypress II, Patrick Payton, Marvin Jones Jr., Joshua Farmer, Darrell Jackson, and DJ Lundy. The linebackers were a question mark entering camp but those concerns were alleviated due to Cam Riley's smooth transition and the growth of Blake Nichelson and Justin Cryer alongside the established veteran Lundy.

The schedule is intriguing and it starts Saturday with a team of moving pieces and younger players stepping in bigger roles kicking off ACC play in unfamiliar territory. The Seminoles can't sleep on home games against Boston College and Memphis or their first true road game against SMU in September. Obviously, the matchup against Clemson will be critical but don't sleep on a four-game stretch over October and November where Florida State will be on the road three out of four weekends (at Duke, at Miami, vs. North Carolina, at Notre Dame).

I think the inconsistency will end up biting Florida State a time or two this year. The wide receivers are the difference between this team being good and elite.

How many games did Dustin predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 10-2

Offensive Player of the Year: Lawrance Toafili, Running Back

This is a tough one with the majority of the established pieces from last year no longer in garnet and gold. With that being said, the Seminoles do have a veteran in the backfield who has been through it all at Florida State. Lawrance Toafili is coming off an MVP performance in the ACC Championship Game and is in the best shape of his career. His ability as a gadget player with the skill set to make an impact on the ground or as a receiver will make him a versatile weapon on offense.

Defensive Player of the Year: Shyheim Brown, Buck Safety

Moving on up the list. Last year, I selected Shyheim Brown as my breakout player of the year and he promptly recorded 53 tackles, two tackles for loss, two sacks, one fumble recovery, one interception, and four pass deflections while showing himself as more than a capable replacement for Jammie Robinson. Mike Norvell has noted a handful of times this fall that he believes Brown is playing the best football since he arrived at Florida State. I see that leading to a further leap in his play on the field with Brown already holding an important role in the locker room.

Breakout Player of the Year: Marvin Jones Jr., Defensive End

The Seminoles enter the year replacing first-round pick Jared Verse off the edge but one reason they aren't sweating about the defensive ends is due to the rise of Marvin Jones Jr. After transferring from Georgia this offseason, the former five-star prospect is seeing an expected resurgence now that he's back at his natural position instead of playing outside linebacker for the Bulldogs. Jones Jr. is entering his third year at the college level but he hasn't quite lived up to expectations just yet. His blend of an elite first step, athleticism, and strength should lead to a big year.

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

This season to me all comes down to the quarterback play and depth across the board. You lost Jordan Travis, a Heisman-contending team leader, and multiple NFL products that are now killing it in training camps across the country.

DJ Uiagalelei is a player that I think has the potential to lead this team offensively but in my opinion, the offensive line is going to play a vital part in his success. DJ Uiagalelei is not Jordan Travis. There’s no eluding multiple defensive players in the backfield with Uiagalelei’s game like FSU fans had with Travis. Alex Atkins’ squad has to give Uiagalelei time in the pocket or the run game needs to find its footing other than what we saw last season.

Depth at the defensive tackle position is a massive question mark for me. Who is going to be a viable option behind Darrell Jackson and Joshua Farmer? I’ve been very happy with the growth at the linebacker position and what we’ve been hearing during fall camp and think the sky is the limit for FSU’s secondary in 2024.

The toughest games to me are at Notre Dame and Clemson. Right now, I’ve got the Seminoles falling in those games but if some things are answered in a positive way from what I mentioned above, Mike Norvell and the Seminoles have a chance at finishing the regular season undefeated. Staying healthy and player leadership is going to play a vital role in this team’s success in 2024.

How many games did Logan predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 10-2

Offensive Player of the Year: Malik Benson, Wide Receiver

I believe after what we’ve seen in the spring and fall watching the former Alabama transfer wide receiver come in and be a star right out of the gate, he has my pick to be FSU’s top player on offense in 2024. Matching his speed and catching ability with DJ Uiagalelei’s arm has me excited.

Defensive Player of the Year: Marvin Jones Jr., Defensive End

This one was hard for me. Pat Payton, Azareye’h Thomas, Joshua Farmer, and maybe a few more could have been put in here but I’ve got the legacy ‘Nole taking defensive player of the year. I think under Adam Fuller’s defensive scheme, Jones Jr. is ready to explode and show why he was one of the best players in his class coming in.

Breakout Player of the Year: Sam Singleton, Running Back

Going with this pick is risky but it has to be done. Florida State’s running back room is loaded but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Singleton crack into the rotation this season and show why he’s been turning heads all spring and fall. Watch out, the Seminoles may have a three-headed monster in 2024.

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

Florida State doesn’t have the top-end talent they did last year but you could make the argument they have more depth. The defense should once again be awesome, especially the front four, even if linebacker and secondary depth have me slightly concerned.

My biggest concern is they don’t have Jordan Travis to bail them out on offense anymore. Any time a play broke down, he could make something out of nothing. DJ Uiagalelei is talented and I think Norvell will find a way to utilize him well but he’s not the miracle worker Travis was.

I think talent-wise FSU is a 9-3 football team but the schedule sets up nicely. The only four games I could reasonably see them losing are Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, and SMU (I have weird vibes about that game). Split the difference and call it two losses, one of them being to Notre Dame, and FSU should be playing in Charlotte again.

How many games did Austin predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 10-2

Offensive Player of the Year: The Running Back Room

I expect this to be a run-heavy offense and the room is so stacked that you can’t make me choose just one. Between Roydell Williams, Lawrance Toafili, Caziah Holmes, Jaylin Lucas, etc. this is the best RB room in the conference top to bottom. But we know Coach Norvell is going to rotate these guys to keep them fresh. I don’t think this is an offense where a single person will stand out.

Defensive Player of the Year: Marvin Jones Jr., Defensive End

A lot of good options on this side of the ball between Patrick Payton, Darrell Jackson, Joshua Farmer, AZ Thomas, Shyheim Brown… But something about Shadetree Jr. makes me think he’s going to be a real treat to watch.

Breakout Player of the Year: Azareye’h Thomas, Cornerback

This might be low-hanging fruit but any time a player on defense switches to No. 8, they should be in line for a big season. AZ showed a lot of flashes last year and is next in a long line of great Florida State defensive backs. Some other candidates would be Malik Benson and Blake Nichelson.

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

The Florida State Seminoles are coming off of their most successful season in nearly a decade. Head coach Mike Norvell’s squad was faced with the highest set of expectations they have experienced during his short tenure, and the ‘Noles managed to exceed even the loftiest of goals by finishing the regular season as 13-win, undefeated conference champions. Entering the 2024 season, confidence remains high in Tallahassee as a mixed bag of promising high school recruits and transfer portal acquisitions have bolstered an already talented roster, but replacing 15 starters is a difficult task for any program. Under Norvell, the Florida State Seminoles have positioned themselves as a force to be reckoned with in this new college football landscape, but the potential of their roster additions will need to be realized on-field if they wish to repeat as conference champions and secure a spot in the 12-team playoff.

If my prediction last year was characterized by a sense of unwavering and extreme confidence, then I’d characterize this year’s attitude as one of cautious optimism. Florida State’s 2024 roster possesses the talent to both repeat as conference champions and make the playoff field, but the ‘Noles will face their fair share of challenges as their newcomers become more comfortable in their roles. The early trip across the pond to face Georgia Tech in Dublin presents its own set of challenges and a Monday night matchup against the Boston College Eagles is not something to be overlooked. FSU will walk away with wins, but these early conference matchups will quickly tell us more about the character of this team than anything else. The Seminoles then enter a stretch where they face off against Clemson, Duke Miami, UNC and Notre Dame. Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame are the most likely candidates to serve Florida State a handful of losses. I think the ‘Noles will be able to outlast all but one of them, namely Notre Dame.

Florida State will close out the season with victories over Charleston Southern and Florida before returning to Charlotte to play in a rematch with the Miami Hurricanes for the conference championship.

When the dust settles following conference championship week, the 12-1 Seminoles will be the back-to-back champions of the ACC and punch their ticket to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

How many games did Dillon predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 11-1

Offensive Player of the Year: Lawrance Toafili, Running Back

While beat writers and fans alike are chomping at the bit to watch the likes of Malik Benson or DJ Uiagalelei in this offense, I believe they’re overlooking a veteran who has often played the role of second fiddle and hasn’t quite received the level of notoriety he may deserve: Lawrance Toafili. Entering 2024, however, Toafili will be the featured back for the Seminoles, and he has a prime opportunity to showcase his full skillset. With his pure athleticism, his vast experience within the offense, his knack for explosive plays, and a formidable offensive line clearing the path in front of him, the redshirt senior back will be well-positioned to become a proficient weapon for the Florida State offense.

Defensive Player of the Year : Marvin Jones Jr., Defensive End

Like the offense, the defense has a host of guys that can easily slot into this role. Patrick Payton, AZ Thomas, and Joshua Farmer have all been the recipients of praise and admiration throughout the course of the offseason and for good reason. But once the season starts, I think we’ll start hearing a name that has flown relatively under the radar for the last few weeks: Marvin Jones Jr. Jones Jr., son of Florida State legend Marvin Jones, comes from a Georgia program that experienced its fair share of successes in recent years, and he brings with him the experience of playing in SEC Championships and national title games. Despite a relatively quiet start to fall camp, the 6’5”, 255-pound edge rusher has been a disruptive presence on the defensive line since he stepped on to campus back in Spring. As we near the start of the 2024 season, practice reports have continued to highlight the energy, effort and intensity that Jones Jr. has been bringing to the team, and I believe that will reveal itself throughout the upcoming season.

Breakout Player of the Year: Jaylin Lucas, Running Back

I know the recent depth chart announcement doesn’t really reflect it, but Jaylin Lucas can flat-out ball. All summer long, Mike Norvell has been praising the sheer speed on this iteration of the Florida State football roster, and Lucas is the poster child for that speed. Despite standing at 5’9”, 175 pounds, Lucas has been a natural playmaker throughout the entirety of fall camp, and he’s forged a unique role for himself on the offense. Whether it be on the ground, through the air, or in the return game, I wholeheartedly believe

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Anything less than 10 wins will be an underachievement for the Seminoles as they defend their ACC Title. The road ahead could be rocky, though, as they face top 25 Notre Dame (7), Clemson (14), and Miami (19).

Some games to keep an eye on that could shake up the Seminoles' season are SMU on the road, Memphis at home, and Cal. Rivals Florida and Miami always pose a challenge but both UF and UM have been under-coached these past few seasons. Despite UM holding its No. 19 preseason ranking, a lot will depend on Cam Ward’s ability to move the ball and overcome whatever it is that has been happening down in Coral Gables, FL.

How many games did Tommy predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 10-2

Offensive Player of the Year: Lawrance Toafili, Running Back

Redshirt senior Lawrance Toafili has developed into an all-around player, lining up in the backfield, and out of the slot, and is the fifth player in FSU history with a rushing touchdown and receiving touchdown of over 70 yards. He knows the system and, despite the by-committee approach by Norvell in the backfield, it is his room to take charge of and I believe he will do just that.

He’s added weight and has the reliable hands in the passing game needed to move the chains.(Honorable Mention: Ja’Khi Douglas)

Defensive Player of the Year: Azareye’h Thomas, Cornerback

Azareye’h Thomas will be entering his third season under defensive coordinator Adam Fuller and has been a proven commodity in the 25 games he’s played with the Seminoles. Recording 29 tackles, 4.5 for a loss, and 10 pass breakups last season, his improvement paired with increased playing time should boost those numbers and prove his lockdown capabilities in the secondary. (Honorable Mention: DJ Lundy)

Breakout Player of the Year: Fentrell Cypress II

I’m going to go with Fentrell Cypress II and his ability to take the next step in the secondary. Shyheim Brown and Thomas have already established themselves on defense, and Cypress has had an extremely strong showing in camp and has matured to become a ball hawk in the secondary. With so many unproven newcomers, it would be hard to omit Fentrell from the list. He had 40 tackles and eight pass breakups last season, splitting reps with now-Jacksonville Jaguar Jarrian Jones and 49er Renardo Green, so there is a good chance he will continue his trajectory as a leader in that room.

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

College football is finally, finally back after a long offseason. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell spent that time reloading the Seminoles’ roster after shipping plenty of talents off to the NFL.

Throughout the offseason, Norvell has also been getting accustomed to the new roster. The fifth-year head coach has been known to strongly utilize transfer portal talents, and he’ll blend that skill with the development of underclassmen to lead an unproven team.

Building off a 13-1, ACC Championship-winning season, Norvell has a chance to prove himself as a head coach. If he can post another strong season with a transfer quarterback and new-look squad, Florida State could be a playoff team with the new 12-team format, while proving Norvell is going to keep the Seminoles a perennial contender for years to come.

How many games did Kade predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 10-2

Offensive Player of the Year: DJ Uiagalelei, Quarterback

DJ Uiagalelei might be a common pick, but it also feels like the right one. The quarterback play will be crucial to the Seminoles’ ceiling on the season. He’s going to distribute the ball around and his dual-threat play could open up the offense, and he’ll post a strong season in his lone year in Tallahassee.

Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Payton, Defensive End

The defense has a very new look after sending off a handful of talents to the NFL, and Payton will anchor that side of the ball. The redshirt junior had seven sacks a season ago, adding 14.5 tackles for loss. With a new-look defense, Payton will stand out as a star for the Seminoles.

Breakout Player of the Year: Hykeem Williams, Wide Receiver

There is talent in the wide receiver room and targets will be spread around. One thing is lacking, though, and that’s a star in the room. Hykeem Williams might just be able to burst onto the scene as a star during his sophomore season. There is a starting position for him to go grab by the season’s end after flashing his potential during the 2023 campaign with five catches for 80 yards and one score.

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

A week ahead of the season, I feel better about 2024 than I did 2023. Despite half of the starting lineup having gone to the NFL, I still believe this team is one of the best in the nation. Even without the same star power they had in 2023, the Seminoles return about half of the starting lineup from last year as well as transfers DJ Uiagalalei, Malik Benson, Roydell Williams, and Marvin Jones Jr. just to name a few. Factor in a few potentially impactful freshmen and this team is arguably just as talented as last season.

I also think that this year’s schedule favors FSU more so than it did last year. The only true test I see the team facing is Notre Dame, which is largely because it’s being played in South Bend. Even though the team should never truly be comfortable facing any opponent (they cannot afford to repeat what happened against Boston College last season). If FSU wants to make a run in the playoffs (which I think will happen), an undefeated regular season and/or ACC Championship is almost a must to guarantee a spot.

Overall, I think that, with the right mindset, which I believe this team has, there is no reason they should not be 12-0 come the end of November. After what happened at the end of last season I think the only acceptable outcome for the team is a national championship, and the only way to be one of the 12 teams in the playoff is to win the first 12 games of the season.

How many games did Robert predict correctly in 2023? 14-0

2024 Record Prediction: 12-0

Offensive Player of the Year: Roydell Williams, Running Back

If I had to pick one position group as the most complete on the team, it would without a doubt be the running backs. From top to bottom, it seems as if almost everybody in the room wants to and can make an impact on gamedays if needed. Despite suffering the loss of Trey Benson, who was a staple in the FSU offense over the last two seasons, the backfield remains complete, and that is largely due to a few new additions, one of which I expect to be an essential part of the FSU offense.

After beginning his career at Alabama, Roydell Williams decided to transfer to FSU last spring following Nick Saban’s retirement. He caught my attention during Tour of Duty and ever since I had a feeling he’s going to be a consistent name on the field. Whether it’s on special teams as a returner, or at running back, Williams has the size and speed needed to be a reliable ball carrier and I’m excited to see what he’s going to do in the garnet and gold.

Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Payton, Defensive End

Last season my defensive player of the year was Jared Verse, this year I’m going with Pat Payton. Yes, I think Verse was a beast that this defense will miss badly, but Payton was a huge reason the defense was so good last season. He has the size, speed, and twitchiness to be a great defensive end. 

His experience is another reason I’m putting him here. Payton started every game for the ‘Noles in 2023, as well as making appearances in every game in 2022. He has been a staple to the defensive line and at the end of the day, he simply makes it better.

Breakout Player of the Year: Hykeem Williams, Wide Receiver

With how much young talent there is on the team, this was a hard decision to make. While I think there will be a few surprises in store throughout the season when it comes to younger guys making an impact, I believe ultimately it will be Hykeem Williams as this year’s breakout player.

After two key departures in Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, as well as a promising start in his freshman season which got cut short due to injury, it seems like this is the year for Williams to make a name for himself in the Florida State offense. In the spring, I saw him as one of the more consistent receivers and after putting on some much-needed weight in the offseason, I think Williams has what it takes to be a consistent name on the field if not WR1 for FSU.

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Florida State football is in for perhaps its most compelling season in a decade. In 2014, the Seminoles were fresh off a national championship and returned many starters on both sides of the ball including their Heisman-winning quarterback. 

However, this year is quite different. FSU has three AP Top 25 ranked opponents on its schedule (five in the top 35) and that list doesn’t include the rival Florida Gators at the end of the regular season. SMU, Miami, and Notre Dame all on the road, with a new (but battle-tested) QB at the helm, two new wide receivers, new contributions from the offensive line, a new running back, etc. I forgot to mention, the ’Noles are coming off an *undefeated season and a conference championship as well. 

The schedule is tougher than last season, and more questions to be answered. Last year, the offense returned a ton of talent and was able to plug and play wide receiver Keon Coleman. But with four new players at skill positions expected to make major contributions immediately, things could get testy. I’m not doubting Mike Norvell or the coaching staff’s decision-making in the transfer portal or their ability to get guys up to speed quickly enough, but naturally, it will be more of an uphill climb (pun intended) compared to last year.

I think Florida State goes undefeated at home but loses a game on the road this year. Conventional wisdom would pick a loss at Notre Dame due to their preseason top-10 status, but FSU nearly got it done against ND in 2021 when Marcus Freeman (now head coach of the Fighting Irish) was the defensive coordinator and the ’Noles had a less favorable roster. Florida State has a three-game losing streak against the Irish, but I like the matchup for the Seminoles in South Bend this year. The away games of SMU and Miami could be troublesome, however. The first true road test for the Seminoles and it’s the week before the Clemson game. SMU is also a team that’s new to the ACC and could be undefeated when the game (Sept. 28) is played.

Moreover, Miami is Miami. Whether their squad lives up to expectations or not, they have a talented roster that will come to play against FSU in Miami Gardens regardless of their record.

2024 Record Prediction: 11-1

Offensive Player of the Year: Lawrance Toafili, Running Back

I think running back Lawrance Toafili takes the honor. I think Florida State will see a lot of two high safeties out of respect for DJ Uiagalelei’s arm strength and the speed of FSU wide receivers, giving Toafili the space to roam and break tackles with his impressive ability to make men miss.

Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Payton, Defensive End

I think Defensive end Patrick Payton snags DPOY due to his ability to be disruptive in the trenches. Whether it comes from sacks, tackles for loss, pass breakups, strip sacks, etc., Patrick Payton can do it all. And with Josh Farmer, Darrell Jackson Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr all on the same front, Payton could have a field day.

Breakout Player of the Year: Jaylin Lucas, Running Back

Not sure if he can be classified as a breakout player due to his recent arrival to Tallahassee, but Indiana transfer Jaylin Lucas is someone that I think will turn some heads for the Seminoles this year. His speed will certainly be a factor on special teams, and I think Norvell will capitalize on his abilities in more ways than people imagined from scrimmage. He’ll be more than a gadget player, something like a utility player to use a baseball term. Look out for him.

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