Simulating Florida State vs. Boston College on EA's College Football 25

We simulated Florida State's upcoming matchup against Boston College 100 times and found some intriguing results.

Austin Veazey | Aug 31, 2024

Aug 24, 2024; Dublin, IRL; Florida State University defensive back Edwin Joseph celebrates a tackle against Georgia Tech with defensive back Conrad Hussey at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Maher/INPHO via USA TODAY Sports / Tom Maher/INPHO via USA TODAY Sports

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State fell disappointingly to Georgia Tech last week, losing 24-21 on a last-second field goal. How did the result compare to what we saw in EA College Football 25?

In last week's article, Georgia Tech won 30 of the 100 simulations and we even had an exact score occur! Congratulations to Simulation 99 for correctly predicting the 24-21 final score. Simulation 82 was two points away (23-20) and Simulation 94 was one point away (24-20), so those deserve a shoutout for that. Other than that, the scores were pretty far off.

With the focus now turned to Boston College, let's see if Florida State's defensive line can have a better performance than it showed last week. The only changes I made were to correctly follow the latest depth chart, with Conrad Hussey as the full-time starter at free safety and Kevin Knowles as the primary starter in the slot. 50 simulations came before the title update on Thursday morning, with the other 50 simulations after the update, just to give more variance. The new update also added TJ Ferguson to the game, listed as a co-starter at right guard on FSU's depth chart. Since there aren't co-starters in the game, he's the backup. Some players saw a small rating change as well.

Florida State almost won the exact same amount of games as last week, taking home 69 wins (nice) to Boston College's 31, with an average score of 31-25. Boston College got off to a hot start, winning 6 of the first 10, including four straight, and 9 of the first 17. Things went FSU's way after that.

The newest update slightly favored Florida State, as FSU had a 33-17 record before the update and a 36-14 record after. In FSU's wins, the average score was 35-21, 34-19 in the 50 games after the update, while in Boston College's wins, the average score was 33-24.

DJ Uiagalelei took home 31 "Player of the Game" awards, followed by Thomas Castellanos' 20 (BC), Roydell Williams' 11, Ja'Khi Douglas' 10, Lawrance Toafili's 5, Azareye'h Thomas' 4, Kye Robicheaux's 4 (BC), Malik Benson's 4, Lewis Bond's 3 (BC), Jerand Bradley's 2 (BC), Patrick Payton's 1, Jayden McGowan's 1 (BC), DJ Lundy's 1, Cam Riley's 1, and two players that we'll discuss later.

Uiagalelei had 22 games with 4+ total touchdowns. Some of my favorites include Simulation 40, when he had three rushing touchdowns in a 35-28 loss, and Simulation 72 when he had five touchdowns to five different targets in a 45-27 win. He only had a handful of games where he tossed multiple interceptions but also had a lot of games finishing around 125 yards passing with no touchdowns.

Speaking of interceptions though, Azareye'h Thomas became a turnover machine late in the simulations. After having just four interceptions through the first 56 games, he picked off 16 passes in the final 44 simulations, including 11 in a 15-game span from Simulations 57 to 71. That includes Simulations 60, 67, and 71 where he picked off two Castellanos throws. There was also Simulation 62 where he had an interception and a scoop-and-score, the only such occurrence for FSU throughout these simulations.

Ja'Khi Douglas saw the biggest rating update from last week, improving from a 76 overall to an 81, and you could tell. He had nine different simulations with either 3+ touchdowns or 150+ receiving yards. Monty Jenkins, the auto-generated head coach for Florida State in CFB 25, decided to get Douglas involved in the run game and it paid off on multiple occasions. In Simulation 98, Douglas had 3 catches for 175 yards and two touchdowns, then added another two touchdowns on the ground. He also had a Randy Moss Thanksgiving performance in Simulation 88 with three catches for 168 yards and three touchdowns.

One of the two mystery POTG performances came in Simulation 79. DJ Uiagalelei got hurt in the first quarter and in came Brock Glenn. He didn't play that well but didn't turn the ball over, finishing 11/20 for 203 yards and a touchdown in a 28-20 win. That was enough to be named POTG despite 117 rushing yards by Toafili, two touchdowns by Roydell Williams, and a Fentrell Cypress INT.

We also saw our first spiked baseball in these simulations! Florida State blanked Boston College 48-0 in Simulation 57, a game where the 'Noles outgained BC 467-109. A few other simulations got close, like Simulation 36 when Boston College kicked a 4th-quarter field goal in a 26-3 loss, but only the one true shutout.

Now, for the bad. Thomas Castellanos didn't run for as many yards as he likely will on Monday, usually around 25 yards rushing every simulation. There was the occasional exception, like Simulation 56 when he had 384 total yards and five touchdowns. There's a reason he won POTG in the majority of BC's wins.

There were some absolutely pitiful offensive performances by Florida State as well. They lost 28-3 in Simulation 13, 24-6 in Simulation 64, and 17-9 in Simulation 84. They also somehow won two games with no offensive touchdowns, which both deserve closer looks.

It started in Simulation 45. Florida State won 20-14 with a perfect 4/4 performance from Ryan Fitzgerald and a punt return touchdown (plus a 2-point conversion) by Malik Benson. Patrick Payton was named POTG for his two sacks in the game.

Then there was Simulation 72. At first glance with a 14-7 final score, you might think it was just a low-scoring, heavy-running game but FSU must've eventually broken into the endzone. And then you look at the box score, which I tweeted.

The next simulation article for @NoleGameday for FSU vs. BC is certainly looking…. interesting lol pic.twitter.com/mf925IcHxT
— Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG) August 29, 2024

Yes, you are seeing that correctly. That is a 5-point second quarter for FSU. Ryan Fitzgerald was a perfect 4/4 on his kicks once again but neither offense could get going, finishing a combined 7/24 on third downs, 225 combined passing yards, and both averaging around 3 yards per carry. The safety came courtesy of Marvin Jones Jr., who had one of his few TFLs in this round of simulations in this game. You'd think that would be enough for either Fitzgerald or Jones Jr. to be named POTG, but you would be mistaken, as that honor would go to Kevin Knowles II.

Knowles, Shyheim Brown, and AZ Thomas all had an interception in this game, so why the game chose Knowles, I don't know. I'm just as confused as you are. Knowles finished with 11 interceptions in the 100 simulations, seeing a big bump while being named as the primary starter in the slot.

That all pales in comparison to Simulation 96 when Knowles finished with NINETEEN TACKLES in a 20-13 win. In all of the other simulations, no other Seminole had more than 13 tackles and somehow he came away with 19 in this simulation. I couldn't believe it when I saw it. That game was simply gross, as DJU only had 77 total yards: 74 passing and 3 rushing.

Some other fun simulations included Simulation 84, a 30-29 FSU win with a 51-yard Fitzgerald kick as time expired to win, Simulation 74, when Malik Benson caught three touchdowns in a 49-23 win, and Simulation 69 when DJ Lundy had two interceptions for his lone POTG in a 30-13 win.

The 4th quarter scoring looks to have been toned down from last time but that didn't stop Simulation 71 from going bonkers. Florida State was up 37-18 with 4 minutes to go. They lost 44-37 in regulation despite DJU throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions, Benson and Douglas each having 100+ yards receiving, and AZ Thomas picking off two passes.

And if that wasn't bad enough, Simulation 54 threw everything out the window. Boston College won 31-24, scoring a touchdown to go ahead with 39 seconds left, yet that didn't decide the game. Jaylin Lucas returned the kickoff 100 yards to tie the game at 24 with 26 seconds remaining. But then Castellanos hit Lewis Bond for a 59-yard touchdown with 16 seconds remaining to put them ahead for good, meaning this game had 21 points in 23 seconds. Absurd.

We'll see if College Football 25 can correctly predict a score like last week against Georgia Tech.

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