Simulating FSU Football vs. Georgia Tech in EA's College Football 25

We simulated 100 games between the Seminoles and the Yellow Jackets. What does EA think of the matchup?

Apr 20, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) runs the ball during the Spring Showcase at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

The beautiful thing about EA's College Football 25 game is we get simulations with actual players for real analysis. And with some extra time on my hands, I put those simulations to work.

I simulated Florida State's upcoming matchup against Georgia Tech 100 times, following FSU's released depth chart as best as I could (players like Hykeem Williams and T.J. Ferguson aren't in the game), put it on Heisman difficulty (not sure if it makes a difference for simulations but why not find out), and let the results come in. If there was a notable stat, I made sure to mark those down as well. The results were fairly fascinating and somewhat ridiculous.

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Of the 100 simulations, Florida State won 70 of them. The average score overall was roughly 35-31, but the results deserve a deeper dive.

In Florida State's 70 wins, the average score was 38-28, while in Georgia Tech's 30 wins, the average score was 29-36. And let me just say, some of Georgia Tech's wins were unbelievable.

Take Simulation 12 for example. Georgia Tech's starting quarterback Haynes King gets hurt on the first series of the game, so in comes backup Zach Pyron. All he does is go 25/29 for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions in a 44-14 win for the Yellow Jackets, the second-largest margin of victory for either team out of all 100 simulations.

The largest victory belonged to Florida State in simulation 58, a 55-21 game where everyone ate. Three different runners scored on the ground as did three different receivers and DJ Uiagalelei finished with 5 total TDs.

Speaking of Uiagalelei, he had at least 13 games of four or more touchdowns, including 7 total touchdowns in Simulation 46, a 54-48 2OT FSU win, and 6 passing TDs in Simulation 90, a 46-44 3OT FSU win. Three of those touchdowns in Simulation 90 went to Ja'Khi Douglas, who had a handful of games with 2+ touchdowns. Uiagalelei won Player of the Game more than anyone else throughout this exercise.

There were seven overtime games in total, with FSU coming out on top in four. My personal favorite of these was in Simulation 21, a 41-38 OT win for FSU as Uiagalelei found Malik Benson for his third touchdown reception of the game to win.

Then there was the ridiculous 4th quarter scoring. The one thing CFB 25 really has to fix with their sim engine is the 4th quarter. There were 17+ points scored in the final two minutes of the game in at least 15 of the simulations. That includes Simulation 57, a 37-34 GT win where 28 points were scored in the final 1:36, 21 by the Yellow Jackets. Most of those late comebacks were by GT, as FSU had big leads in their fair share of games before late scores closed the gap.

Shyheim Brown had interceptions in at least 25 simulations, Cam Riley racked up tackles and interceptions, and the defensive line was mostly quiet. There were a few exceptions, like in Simulation 42 when Patrick Payton had five sacks by himself, but the D-Line was usually held to 1-2 sacks for the most part. Earl Little Jr. had a few sims with double-digit tackles too.

My favorite simulation was a toss-up between Simulations 17 and 77. Sim 17 was a bad Uiagalelei game, as he threw three interceptions, but the ground game was dominant. Roydell Williams and Lawrance Toafili combined for 276 yards on the ground, but Uiagalelei scampered for 46 yards for the game-winning touchdown with 15 seconds remaining, as the Seminoles won 39-38.

Sim 77 featured an improbable Florida State comeback as they were down most of the game, but a touchdown with 46 seconds to tie the game and a Georgia Tech fumble on the kickoff gave Ryan Fitzgerald a chance to hit the game-winning field goal, and he did as time expired for a 37-34 win.

Some other oddities throughout the simulations were a Roydell Williams kick return touchdown in Simulation 97, the only time a return touchdown happened. That game also featured a Shyheim Brown scoop-n-score, the only defensive touchdown for Florida State in these simulations. Sim 40 had not just one, but two safeties forced by Florida State in a dominant 49-28 win, the only game where a safety was scored.

Overall, a 70% win rate is above what I expected for FSU. CFB 25's simulation logic needs some fine-tuning, but it does account for the improbability that occurs in college football. If you'd like to see access to all 100 simulations, I can make them available in the future.

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