Simulating FSU Football vs. Memphis in EA College Football 25

We simulated Florida State vs. Memphis 100 times. What were the results?

Aug 24, 2024; Dublin, IRL; Florida State University players ahead of the game against Georgia Tech at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Maher/INPHO via Imagn Images / Tom Maher/INPHO via Imagn Images

After a desperately needed bye week, Florida State returns to action this weekend, facing Mike Norvell's old Memphis Tigers. FSU needs a win just for morale's sake but EA's College Football 25 knows no breaks.

Before starting the simulations for Memphis, we did not get a correct score for the Boston College game. The closest we got was in Simulation 75, a 26-13 BC win where DJ Uiagalelei threw three interceptions. The most "realistic" result came in Simulation 47, a 24-16 BC win, where Florida State had just 44 rushing yards. Somehow, that was more than double what they'd run for in real life but that's a different topic for a different article.

The only major changes in the depth chart came from dropping Jaylin Lucas from the Running Back, Kick Return, Punt Return, and 3rd Down Running Back depth charts, as Mike Norvell announced on Monday that he would be out for the season. Sam Singleton and Macahi Danzy aren't in the game, so it's a smaller RB rotation than they have in real life.

Onto the results!

READ MORE: Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Memphis Tigers

Memphis has won the most simulations of any of FSU's opponents so far, winning 38 of the 100 simulations compared to 31 for Boston College and 30 for Georgia Tech. Florida State had the overall advantage by a score of 31-28, but in their 62 wins, that margin increased to 35-24. Memphis' average score when they won was fairly similar: 35-25.

DJ Uiagalelei only scored 4+ touchdowns in nine simulations against Memphis, a major drop-off from the 22 such simulations he had against Boston College. His results were more realistic this time, but still took home the most Player of the Game awards despite an average statline of around 185 yards, two touchdowns, and a 57% completion percentage. To be honest, he didn't deserve half of the POTGs he won, like Simulation 31, when Roydell Williams scored three touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime, and Ja'Khi Douglas had 9 receptions for 131 yards and two touchdowns.

Some of my favorite bad DJU games include Simulation 11 when DJ was 11/29 for 86 yards in a 37-14 loss and Simulation 99, a 23-17 loss where DJ was 8/20 for 93 yards.

Uiagalelei's 40 POTG awards were only rivaled by Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan, who came away with 29, four of those coming when FSU won the game. The other players that took home POTGs are Roydell Williams (9), Memphis's Koby Drake (6), Malik Benson (4), Lawrance Toafili (3), Memphis' Mario Anderson (3), Ja'Khi Douglas (2), Jalen Brown (1), Memphis' Roc Taylor (1), Memphis' Brandon Taylor (1), and Memphis' Demeer Blankumsee (1).

The running game was on point for the most part in these simulations, with Roydell Williams and Lawrance Toafili often combining for 200+ yards on the ground. Roydell, in particular, had some big performances, like when he ran for 164 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries in Simulation 75. He also had two kick return touchdowns in Simulations 5 and 69, which would be a pleasant sight given FSU's loss of return specialist Jaylin Lucas. Maybe this is the game in which the rushing attack finally gets going.

There was one horrific rushing attack in Simulation 52. Florida State was down big the entire game, entering the fourth quarter down 38-3, so they were throwing the ball the entire game and only finished with five rushing yards from the running backs on nine carries.

Marvin Jones Jr. came to play. I only make note of player sacks if they get two or more in a game, but I still marked him down for 37 sacks. If I marked down every single sack he recorded, he probably finished with 50+. His magnum opus came in Simulation 7 when he recorded six sacks and eight total tackles. Darrell Jackson also had some big games, as I had him marked down for 27 sacks, In reality, he probably finished with 35-40. We also had a Lamont Green Jr. sighting somehow, who popped up with a few sacks here and there, including two in Simulation 98. Aaron Hester even got a fumble recovery in Simulation 58 and I'm for some of the younger guys getting some reps if the starters aren't performing.

The defense was lit up by Henigan, for the most part, who had too many 4+ touchdowns to recall. I normally don't keep track of other teams' stats unless they are notable, but he had at least 35 games with 4+ touchdowns. Memphis often finished with 350-400 total yards, as FSU simply had no answers for them. There were a few exceptions, like Simulation 23, where Memphis was held to just 212 yards, but those were few and far between.

Ja'Khi Douglas was the most consistent Florida State receiver, but Malik Benson had the flashiest games, including a Randy Moss-like three catches for 172 yards and three touchdowns in Simulation 93. Douglas and Benson combined for a big performance in 43, finishing with 12 catches for 246 yards and three touchdowns between them.

READ MORE: FSU Head Coach Mike Norvell Squashes Marching Chiefs Drama: 'Play On'

I thought the 4th quarter scoring was fixed in the Boston College simulation, but I could not have been more wrong. 11 Simulations had a team score at least 55% of their total points in the fourth quarter, including a few where a team scored all of their points in the 4th.

The most egregious of these examples is between Simulations 7 and 78. In Simulation 7, Florida State entered the 4th quarter with a 6-0 lead and lost in regulation 21-20. Henigan hit Roc Taylor for a 27-yard touchdown as time expired to win the game as Memphis scored all of their points in the 4th quarter, and there were 35 total points in the quarter. In simulation 78, Florida State entered the 4th with a 24-3 lead and lost in regulation 27-26, meaning there were somehow enough possessions in the 4th for Memphis to score three touchdowns (and two-point conversions) and for Florida State to tackle Memphis in the endzone for a safety.

Simulation 49 had Memphis scoring 29 points in the 4th quarter to win 42-39 as DJ Uiagalelei threw five touchdowns, but also three interceptions.

There were two simulations that I frankly couldn't believe. One was Simulation 78, which I just talked about with the insane 4th quarter scoring, but then there was Simulation 91, a 31-24 Memphis win.

Florida State led 24-10 with under two minutes remaining. Memphis scored a touchdown with 1:21 remaining to bring the score to 24-17, but Florida State recovered the ensuing onside kick. DJ Uiagalelei takes three knees, which would usually indicate the game is over, except either the sim engine was completely broken or Memphis had timeouts because Florida State punted the ball back to Memphis. Koby Drake set Memphis up with a 20-yard punt return, and they'd score a touchdown 40 seconds later on a 27-yard pass to Roc Taylor to send the game to overtime. And, of course, Memphis would win it in overtime. Here is the play-by-play as proof.

That mostly ends off the noteworthy actions. There wasn't anyone that generated a lot of turnovers or that many great games. In fact, there were a lot of blowouts. 20 simulations had score differences of three scores or more, and a handful of others finished with a 16-point margin or had a few late scores to make it look more respectable. No one team was blowing one out more than the other, it was pretty even.

We'll see if EA can correctly predict one of these scores after not nailing the Boston College game.

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READ MORE: ESPN's Paul Finebaum Praises FSU's Mike Norvell Despite 0-2 Start

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