Three Key Matchups For FSU Football's First True Road Test vs. SMU Mustangs

Florida State has some momentum to build off of after its first win of the season against Cal.

Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell before a game against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Florida State Seminoles will face off against the Southern Methodist University Mustangs on Saturday at Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas, at 8 ET on the ACC Network. FSU will look for its second win of the season and attempt to establish a winning streak after three consecutive losses to open the season.

READ MORE: Tuesday Practice Observations For Florida State Prior To SMU

FSU and SMU have never faced each other on the gridiron before, but with the addition of the Mustangs to the ACC this year, this matchup could be more frequent pending current litigation. SMU comes into this game with a 3-1 record highlighted by a 24-point win over rival TCU last week.

If you’re looking for the pivotal matchups – the game within the game on Saturday – NoleGameday has you covered.

1. FSU Offense vs. SMU Red Zone Defense

Florida State has the 67th-best red zone offense in the country, as it has scored on six of seven of its attempts inside the 20 (3 TDs, 3 FGs). At the same time, SMU is tied for last (T-110) in the country in allowing red-zone scores (13-13 – 11 TDs, 2 FGs). However, what do these statistics tell us? They tell us that while FSU has succeeded in the red zone, they do not enter it often.

Of the top 50 teams in red zone success, a large majority have more than 10 trips to the red zone (a lot of them closer to 20). Moreover, the stats show that SMU is in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing teams to get into the red zone.

Therefore, if the Seminoles are able to put some drives together, season trends show us they should be able to score touchdowns. However, trends don’t decide games, the play on the field does.

2. FSU Rushing Attack vs. SMU Rushing Defense

98, 21, 37, 107. That has been the tale of the tape for Florida State’s ground game in their first four contests. While DJ Uiagalelei has received a lot of jeers from fans and analysts, he is not being helped by the rushing offense which has produced just 66 yards a game, good for 130th in the country. At the same time, SMU has a top-25 rushing defense, allowing 95 yards a game.

Whether it has been the lack of a passing game that is affecting the run or vice versa, at the end of the day, running the ball is about getting push off the line and moving other men against their will. FSU has not done that with any consistency so far. While this seems like a lopsided key matchup, it will be interesting to see how Mike Norvell gameplans for the ground on Saturday.

3. FSU Pass Rush vs. SMU Passing Offense

This key matchup is more about capitalizing on momentum for Florida State. The Seminoles’ pass rush came into its own last week with seven sacks against Cal. However, it did allow 303 yards through the air for 8.4 yards a pop. This is significantly more than the team’s averages, as FSU is 70th in the country in passing yards allowed (207 yards per game).

SMU has the 30th-best rushing attack in the nation, but 93rd-best in passing offense. They will likely run the ball more often than not, but when they find themselves in obvious passing situations, the ’Noles will need to make their mark.

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