Three Key Matchups For FSU's Game Against New ACC Foe Cal

The Golden Bears are coming into Tallahassee with an undefeated record and an impressive win at Auburn in Week 2.

Sep 14, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell looks on during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Florida State Seminoles will face off against the California Golden Bears in Tallahassee, Florida on Saturday at 7 ET. FSU will look to bounce back after three straight losses to unranked opponents (Boston College was unranked but now holds the #23 spot) and avoid starting the season 0-4 for the first time since 2021.

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Florida State and Cal have never faced each other on the gridiron before, but with the addition of the Golden Bears to the ACC this year, this matchup could be more frequent pending current litigation.

Cal comes into this game 3-0, their record highlighted by a touchdown victory over Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 2.

Many fans will be glued to their screens or making the trip to the Sunshine State’s capital this weekend to see their Seminoles in action, but if you’re looking for the pivotal matchups – the game within the game on Saturday – NoleGameday has you covered.

1. Florida State Run Defense vs. California Rushing Attack

Once again, FSU’s upcoming opponent does not possess a spectacular running game. One of the key matchups last week was the Seminoles’ run defense against the Memphis rushing attack which was 90th in the nation after Week 2.

The Garnet and Gold answered the bell, allowing only 65 yards against the Tigers after getting gashed in their first two games. However, through three contests, Cal is 69th in the country on the ground. They’ve rushed for at least 99 yards in all three of their contests, including a 275-yard performance against San Diego State last week.

With all that being said, the ’Noles still have the 103rd-ranked run defense after Week 3. They will need to make a habit of stopping the run game to be competitive against Cal.

2. Third Downs

This statistic is one of the game's greatest microcosms as Florida State is 124th in allowing third downs (.500) and 125th in converting third downs (.263). California is 72nd in converting third down (.404) and 70th in allowing them (.359). When your opponent is about fifty spots better than you in one of the most important categories in the sport, it could be a recipe for disaster.

Against Auburn, Cal was 10-19 on third downs and was 5-11 on defense (including a fourth down stop). Florida State was 2-12 on the money down (3-3 on 4th down) last week against Memphis and allowed seven of 17 attempts on defense (2-3 on 4th down).

It doesn’t appear that FSU’s main problem is specifically on third down. They had an average of 9.5 yards to go on third down against Memphis, which points to penalties and lack of execution on first and second down. That has to be fixed come Saturday.

3. Turnover Margin

Florida State needs to take care of the football. They’re 109th in the country in turnover margin, as they’ve lost the ball four times (five if you include Saturday’s muffed punt) and only forced one takeaway. Cal, on the other hand, has a turnover margin of +8 (with NINE interceptions already), which is good for second-best in the nation.

FSU already has its problems practically everywhere else. They will need to take care of the football, or things could get out of hand.

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