Three Key Matchups For The Sunshine Showdown Between Florida State And Florida

The Gators and the Seminoles have battled it out on Thanksgiving weekend for decades. FSU is looking for an upset in the latest installment of the rivalry.

Nov 23, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Luke Kromenhoek (14) looks to throw during the second half of the game against the Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Florida State Seminoles will face off against the rival Florida Gators in Tallahassee, Florida, on Saturday at 7 ET on ESPN2. FSU will look to build off its momentum after defeating FCS school Charleston Southern. The final score was 41-7.

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Many fans will be glued to their screens or making the trip to the Sunshine State capital this weekend to see their Seminoles in action, but if you’re looking for the pivotal matchups – the game within the game on Saturday – NoleGameday has you covered.

1. Florida State Run Defense vs. Florida Rushing Attack

With this being the final edition of Three Key Matchups for the season, it would be unfitting to leave out FSU’s run game in this installment.

As mentioned multiple times throughout the 2024 campaign, every time FSU gives up less than 200 yards rushing, the Seminoles either lose by one possession or win outright. However, of the Garnet and Gold’s 10 games against FBS competition so far, they’ve accomplished this feat just four times and only won outright once. The ’Noles are 105th in the nation in stopping the ground game and give up an average of 180 yards per contest.

UF, on the other hand, has a mediocre rushing attack (79th in the country) that averages just 149 yards a game.

DJ Lagway is a hell of a player. He’s proven himself over and over since Graham Mertz went down with a season-ending leg injury. But FSU prides itself in playing man coverage and has allowed just 208 yards a game through the air. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seminoles load the box and attempt to force the Gator ground game to defeat the ’Noles on their home field. If the UF offense is successful against FSU in Doak Campbell Stadium while facing a consistent six or seven-man box, then they will certainly deserve to win.

If Florida can run the ball, they should win.

2. Luke Kromenhoek, DJ Lagway vs. The Bright Lights

Everyone knows Florida State cannot run the ball. Except for last week against Charleston Southern, FSU has rushed for over 150 yards in a game just once this season (Duke). If the Seminoles accomplish this feat on Saturday, it will certainly be a surprise even though the Gators give up 161 yards a game on the ground.

Therefore, look for both teams to test their opponent’s true freshman quarterbacks.

While Lagway has proven himself over and over, this will be his first start in a true road game. He started against Georgia in Jacksonville and played well before getting injured and was taken out of the game. Since then, he has shined against teams such as LSU and Ole Miss, leading them to victory as home underdogs in both games. However, this time, he comes into Doak Campbell Stadium against a rival in a hostile environment at night. This will be the first time all season in which Lagway will face a crowd in which a decisive majority will be cheering against him. How will he handle it?

As for Kromenhoek, it will be his first start against an FBS opponent in his career. And it comes against a Florida Gator team that is one of the hottest in the SEC. Also, expect a lot of heat to be sent toward Kromenhoek if the run game sputters.

While Lagway has the experience advantage (for a true freshman), Kromenhoek has the crowd behind him and perhaps the most important thing, he has the gift of low expectations.

3. Turnover Margin

Last week, Florida State was the much better team attempting to evade an upset from 1-9 FCS school Charleston Southern. Now that the Gators are the multiple-touchdown road favorites, they are the ones who will need to avoid a fluke. The best way to avoid flukes is to keep turnovers (including unforced errors that might not be reflected on the stat sheet) to a minimum. Florida State has a -12 turnover margin, which is the third-worst in the country. The bad news for the ’Noles is that UF is not prone to losing the turnover margin as they are +1 in that column on the season.

If the Seminoles want to pull off the upset, they must benefit from the Gators’ errors, whether forced or unforced. A Florida State victory will likely include manufactured points from short fields or defensive scores. It will be paramount for the Seminoles to wreak havoc in any way they can.

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READ MORE: 'Proud Of Our Guys' ... Mike Norvell Pleased With FSU's Focus Against Charleston Southern

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