Which Games Could Florida State Realistically Win In The Second Half Of Season?

The Seminoles have multiple streaks to defend and dignity on the line.

Sep 28, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell during the game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

With Florida State 1-5 midway through college football’s regular season, the once AP top-10 team has a highly improbable chance of making a bowl game. However, of the six games left on the schedule, FSU currently has three contests against teams with winning records (Duke, Miami, Notre Dame). All three of those games are on the road, which is the bad news.

READ MORE: Florida State Releases Depth Chart For Friday Night Game At Duke

The good news is that almost all of these games carry a legitimate chance of a Seminole victory. That might sound laughable to some, but when you break it down game by game, it’s not as crazy as it sounds.

Do I think the ’Noles will go 6-0 in the second half of the year? Of course not. They’re a three-point underdog to Duke in their matchup on Friday, which is pretty telling. However, three points on the road is certainly a winnable game.

NoleGameday will have Duke game predictions and previews throughout the week.

But when you look at each game in a vacuum, the Garnet and Gold could surprise some people, especially as younger teams tend to play to the level of their competition.

Notre Dame

A bit contradictory to my last statement, the game with seemingly the lowest chance of victory is the November 9 contest at Notre Dame. Yes, the Fighting Irish slipped up against Northern Illinois at home early in the season. But a night game, presumably in the cold weather, against a team that has already had a wakeup call, will be coming off a bye, and can’t afford to lose to anyone else in order to control their own destiny to make the College Football Playoff (CFP)? That’s too many factors working against Florida State, and ND has a roster that can compete with the big boys for four quarters. If this were a rivalry game, perhaps I would think differently.

ESPN Analytics: FSU 5.5% chance to win

Miami/Florida

The rivalry games of Miami and Florida do not require much explanation.

While Miami is 6-0 and the ’Noles are traveling down south, the series history is full of both teams ruining each other’s seasons and claiming bragging rights for the next 364 days. Moreover, not that the transitive property is a great measure for picking games, but both teams struggled against the California Golden Bears which will be the only common opponent among the two teams until they play each other.

ESPN analytics give Florida State less than a 10% chance to win on October 26, but I highly question a computer’s ability to account for the atmosphere and historic significance of rivalries.

Most of the time, rivalry wins are not flukes; they are testaments to the passion (and hatred) that schools have against each other.

As for the Florida game, the 3-3 Gators are also favorites by ESPN Analytics by a 2:1 margin. However, with this game being played in Doak Campbell Stadium and a (somewhat) realistic chance that UF will be attempting to reach bowl eligibility status in their final regular season outing, there could be even more extra motivation for the ’Noles to ruin Florida’s season as well.

ESPN Analytics: FSU 9.7% chance to beat Miami/33% chance to beat Florida

North Carolina

Like Florida State’s undefeated streak against Duke, their crosstown rival UNC also has a unique streak attached to FSU football.

North Carolina head coach Mack Brown began his illustrious coaching career as a student wide receiver coach for Florida State. He won a national championship with the Texas Longhorns in 2005 and is currently serving his second stint as the Tar Heels head coach. From 1988 to 1997 and from 2019 until the present, Brown has never defeated his alma mater. With this game in Tallahassee as well, the current 3-4 Tar Heels could end Brown’s 0-8 record against the ’Noles.

FSU head coach Mike Norvell and co. will have to stop the fierce rushing attack of Omarion Hampton, who has already amounted 901 yards on 155 carries through seven games.

Regardless, Florida State is still the favorite, according to ESPN’s computers.

ESPN Analytics: FSU 56.1% chance to win

Charleston Southern

CSU is currently 1-5. They’re an FCS school. The game is in Doak. ESPN Analytics gives the Buccaneers less than a two percent chance to win despite Florida State’s poor performances as of late.

ESPN Analytics: FSU 98.7% chance to win

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READ MORE: Dabo Swinney Praises FSU Legend Bobby Bowden After Record-Breaking Win

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