ESPN FPI projects Florida State's 2022 record

The Football Power Index also provides some interesting analytics on the Seminoles.

No season in recent history may be more important for Florida State than 2022. Over the last five years, the Seminoles have made just two bowl games and finished with a record over .500 one time. There's not a better time than now for the program to begin flipping the script in year three under head coach Mike Norvell.

Though Norvell's first two seasons have yielded only eight total wins on the field, he's worked hard to rebuild a decimated roster since arriving in Tallahassee in December of 2019. With the fall approaching, he's primed to field the most talented and deep squad that he's had so far at Florida State.

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It's hard to provide predictions without the nature of human bias mucking things up but machines don't have those same limitations. 

According to ESPN, "FPI or the Football Power Index, is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.

It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."

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In the current edition of the Football Power Index, Florida State slots in at No. 31 in the country with an FPI of 9.4. The number ranks seventh in the ACC behind Clemson, Pittsburgh, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, and Wake Forest. In comparison, Alabama (28.9), Ohio State (28.3), and Georgia (27.4) all have an FPI that is nearly three times higher than the Seminoles. That's a pretty significant margin.

There are also some other interesting numbers that Football Power Index projects for Florida State. For instance, it has the program's predicted win-loss record at 7.1 to 5.0, which puts the Seminoles squarely in line to make a bowl game according to the system. 

Utilizing the results of 20,000 season simulations, FPI slots Florida State in with a 0% chance to go undefeated, a 0.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 0% chance to appear in or win the title game. However, maybe more importantly with the trajectory that the Seminoles are currently on, the program does provide an 84.5% chance for FSU to win at least six games. That's coupled with a 6.3% chance for Florida State to win the Atlantic Division and a 2.7% chance to win the conference.

While numbers and predictions can be eye-popping, the eventual results will be decided between the lines. The Seminoles probably won't win a national championship in 2022 but getting back to the postseason would be a feat in itself to begin re-establishing consistency.

Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State football throughout the summer.

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