Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
It's a battle of future ACC opponents, barring Florida State finally forcing its way out of the conference, as FSU plays host to SMU Saturday night. It's a much-needed game for both teams, as Florida State is looking to stabilize after a rocky couple of weeks, and SMU is looking for a win that can give their resume some credibility.
The second-ever meeting between the Seminoles and Mustangs will be at 8 pm on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.
Southern Methodist Mustangs Breakdown (6-4)
SMU is in the second year under head coach Rob Lanier, cousin of Basketball Hall of Famer and Detroit Pistons legend Bob Lanier. It's his third stop as a head coach, with a run with Siena in the mid-2000s, but bounced around as an assistant at Virginia, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee afterward before he got his next head gig at Georgia State, and used some regular season success there to land the SMU job.
This was not a good basketball team last year at just 10-22, but they're off to a better start this season. They just haven't really beaten any decent teams yet: having beaten Southwest Assemblies of God University (Not Division 1), Western Illinois, Lamar, West Virginia (remember, Bob Huggins is no longer there), Louisiana-Monroe, and Texas A&M Commerce. The 5 D1 teams average out to a KenPom ranking of 264, and they've won those games by an average of 23.2 PPG. They have played close in almost all of their losses to some good basketball teams: Dayton, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, and Arizona State (the worst team of the bunch, similarly rated to FSU), losing by an average of 6.3 PPG.
It's not a very big team. In fact, their starting "center" is only an inch taller than Jalen Warley, which will fit right into what Florida State wants to do defensively. What they lack in size, they make up for in tenacity, sending multiple people to the offensive glass on every shot attempt, and it's led to an offensive rebound rate that's one of the best in the country right now. They also have a really good interior defense, allowing teams to shoot just 42% inside the 3-point line, currently top-15 in the country.
SMU is really just good at defending shots in general, allowing an effective field goal percentage of 42.6%, which is top-10 in the country. They're okay at forcing turnovers, and will press full-court, but they just make life hard trying to score the basketball. In games teams shoot above 40% on the interior against them, they're 2-4. So Florida State is going to have to find ways to score on the interior, something that has been an issue in their losses.
Leading the way are Chuck Harris and Zhuric Phelps, combining to average around 29.3 PPG. Harris is the more efficient three-level scorer while Phelps prefers to get to the basket, and takes 10 shots per game inside the arc. These two take 40% of all of the team's shots, and will get their points one way or another. The production takes a major drop-off after that. Their combined points scored is more than the next four highest scorers on the team.
Samuell Williamson, a Louisville transfer, is extremely inefficient this season but is a versatile defender. Tyreek Smith is a high offensive rebound, high-energy guy off of the bench, but also fouls a lot for 17 minutes per game. Keon Ambrose-Hylton has been really efficient as their starting 5-man despite being 6'8", but he only takes 5 shots per game. BJ Edwards is their starting point guard, but takes very few shots, preferring to set everyone else up. Jalen Smith is a good defensive guard, but his offense leaves a lot to be desired.
They're still figuring out team offense, but make up for it on the offensive glass. Outside of Harris, there are no known 3-point commodities. BJ Edwards is shooting 42.9% but shoots less than one 3-pointer per game. Emory Lanier is 11/22 on the season, but only plays about 9 minutes per game and is a career 18.2% shooter in the three seasons before this one. No one else that really plays is above 35%. Harris and Phelps will each take 4-5 threes per game, but Harris has been much more effective. To me, if Phelps is settling for 3s, you're living with that result.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (4-4)
There's nothing good to talk about in the last three games coming from this Florida State team. All hope I had heading into the last few minutes of the Georgia game has been sucked out of me with the end of that game and the two games to follow, but especially USF.
So let's focus on something positive. Primo Spears might finally be able to play.
It's not from the NCAA finally deciding on his transfer waiver, though we are a month and a half into the season and it's a little ridiculous that powers outside of the NCAA had to be the one to grant him eligibility. Instead, it's a court case.
In the Ohio vs NCAA case, the judge issued a temporary restraining order on December 13 that allowed for immediate eligibility for all two-time transfers awaiting word from the NCAA for at least the ensuing two weeks. The NCAA originally stated they wouldn't retroactively punish the schools or players if they decided to play, then walked that statement back just a day later, saying athletes would lose eligibility if they played and the order was reversed.
Since then, the Attorney General of Ohio, Dave Yost, has announced that the NCAA has agreed to new terms of the order: the temporary restraining order has been converted to a preliminary injunction and will last until the end of spring sports, and they will not punish players who play while this is in place.
In other words, all two-time transfers in all sports are now eligible. Because this has been such a fluid situation with different moving pieces, it's not 100% clear if Florida State will play Primo Spears yet, but as of this moment, neither he nor the team will be punished if he plays. Knowing Coach Hamilton and FSU's Compliance, I wouldn't be surprised to see him sit one more game until they're 100% confident about the situation, but I think he's going to play. Despite what the NCAA said in their statement Friday evening, they've walked back on their word before and will again in the future, it's just a matter of what Coach Hamilton and Spears feel comfortable with.
That being said, this team needs a player like Primo; someone that can just flat-out score the basketball and break a press. FSU has had major issues scoring the basketball, and needs someone outside of Darin Green Jr and Jamir Watkins who isn't afraid to shoot the ball. They're the only two players on the team even averaging more than 8 shot attempts per game. Even if Spears starts off slowly, just having someone who is a threat to score would benefit this offense massively.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Primo Spears' status is up in the air, as this week has seen a bunch of rulings and reversions of two-time transfer eligibility (more above). As of now, he is eligible for the rest of the season, but we'll see if he plays.
Cam Corhen has sat the last two games with a small fracture in his toe. It's a pain tolerance thing with him at this point, so he's questionable to play.
For SMU, Denver Anglin missed the start of the season with a foot injury, and Coach Lanier has announced he will sit out the remainder of the season and redshirt.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: De'Ante Green
Southern Methodist
G: BJ Edwards
G: Chuck Harris
G: Zhuric Phelps
G: Samuell Williamson
F: Keom Ambrose-Hylton
Keys to the Game
Paint Touches
If you can score on SMU on the interior, you'll give yourselves a chance. Unfortunately, Florida State has had issues scoring on the interior in their losses. SMU has one of the best 2PT% defenses in the country, allowing teams to shoot just 42% inside the arc. If we use that as a line of demarcation, when FSU has shot below that number this season, they're 0-4, and 4-0 when they've shot above it.
SMU's wins and losses come around a similar line. They're 4-0 when teams shoot below 40% on 2s and 2-4 when teams are above 40%. This could become one of those old-fashioned, sloppy games on the interior.
If they're not falling, they can still use paint touches to open up opportunities on the perimeter. USF was great at handling FSU with physicality on the outside, and that made life tough for guys like Darin Green Jr to get open looks. If they can suck in the defense and kick out to open looks, it'll be much easier than whatever they were trying to do against USF.
Turnovers
Both of these teams have a similar turnover rate, hovering around 18%. Again, if we use SMU's 18.2% turnover rate as a line of demarcation, they're 5-0 when they turn it over less than that, and 1-4 when they turn it over more than on 18.2% of possessions (with the one win coming in a blowout over Texas A&M Commerce, who you probably didn't even know was D1).
Same thing with FSU defense, they're 4-1 when forcing a turnover rate north of 18.2%, and 0-3 forcing a turnover rate south of it. So who's going to be taken out of their rhythm with turnovers, FSU's defense or SMU's offense?
SMU will press Florida State, and FSU hasn't handled presses very well this season. Tonight would be a great time to break that trend.
Limit the Impact of the "Others"
Chuck Harris and Zhuric Phelps are more than likely going to get theirs, but their scoring hasn't impacted winning or losing for them so far. It's really the other guys you have to keep limited; guys like Samuell Williamson (5-0 when he scores 8 points or more, 1-4 with 7 or less), Keon Ambrose-Hylton (6-1 when he scores 8 points or more, 0-3 with 7 or less), and BJ Edwards (3-0 when he has 5+ assists, 3-4 with 4 or less).
If Florida State can keep those guys from putting an impact on this game, it will force Harris and Phelps to push harder, which could be beneficial for FSU, as long as they aren't putting up something absurd like 30 points each.
Game Prediction
Florida State is currently favored by 4 points, with an over/under of 146.
For now, FSU has hit a temporary state of where they were for me last year: SHOW me you can win again before I pick you to win. This could be a one-game temporary negativity streak, but the last three halves of basketball have not been redeeming for this team. Either way, I'm expecting this to be lower-scoring.
SMU 71 FSU 67
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