Game Preview: No. 4 Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Florida State is back out on the road after a month of not having to leave Tallahassee, and it'll be against a program and system that has given them some issues in the past in Wake Forest. Coach Dave Clawson has made the slow mesh point offense infamous, and they've been able to hang some points on FSU the last few years. Can this year be any different for the 'Noles?
READ MORE: ESPN Analyst Thinks Wake Forest Could Upset No. 4 Florida State This Weekend
On the flip side, Wake Forest enters this game with a 4-3 record, with some interesting multi-score losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech (which was at home), and arguably should've lost at Old Dominion, yet hung in on the road at Clemson, and then would've lost to Pitt this past weekend if Pitt's QB slide was called a first down. Instead, Wake Forest was able to get a last-second touchdown with 3rd string quarterback Santino Marucci.
Despite FSU leading the all-time series 30-9, Wake Forest has won three straight in the series, with Wake Forest averaging 33 PPG in the games against FSU since Coach Norvell took the helm. We'll see if the tables can turn this time.
It's another matchup on ABC for Florida State, their seventh of the season on ABC (Southern Miss was the only game to not be on ABC, and even that was still primetime on the ACC Network). It's also FSU's 4th noon game of the season, much to my disdain.
Seminole Headlines
Some Misconceptions Following the Duke Game
There's been a theme from national pundits that while Florida State won, Riley Leonard left the game and it was a different ball game from that point on. I hate to break it to them, Leonard was not the reason Duke was in that football game. Duke's first two drives started at FSU's 36-yard-line and Duke's 36-yard-line because of two turnovers on downs, which resulted in 71 yards, but 10 points because of the premium field position, and that all happened in the first 8+. minutes of the game.
The only points Duke's offense could manage the rest of the game, a span of over 51 minutes of football, was a field goal at the end of the first half. Leonard didn't leave the game until towards the end of the 3rd quarter on a long drive that ended at the 4-yard line. I'm not sure if you replace the backup Belin in for Leonard that they score on any of those plays, specifically the one on 4th down.
Now, if the argument had been that a healthy Riley Leonard would've made a difference, then that would make total sense. But saying his leaving was the X-Factor in a game where he was 7/16 for 69 yards, 1 INT, and couldn't run is certainly a take.
Shyheim Brown is Finding His Stride
There was a lot of hype for Shyheim Brown entering this season, and rightfully so. He came on in a big way towards the end of last season, and with Jammie Robinson moving onto the NFL, it only made sense Brown would step up into that role.
It started off slowly this season for Brown. He was grading out on PFF anywhere from a 48.2 against Southern Miss to a respectable 74.3 against Virginia Tech, but more often than not fell in the mid-60s. In those first five games, he had 17 tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, no INTS, and no pass breakups. Against Duke and Syracuse, he's graded out above 80 in both games, totaling 10 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 PBU. Coach Fuller has been using him more in the box and it's been working, as Brown has been flying around the field, and made a really impressive diving interception last week.
Brown being this impressive only makes it harder to go against FSU's defense, and it's already allowing one of the lowest completion percentages in the country at 50.2%. Hopefully Brown can keep this pace from the last two games up for the rest of the season.
Injury Updates on Both Sides
Florida State saw Johnny Wilson go down again against Duke this past weekend, while fellow wide receiver Destyn Hill hurt his foot against Syracuse and has been in a boot on the sidelines since then. While Norvell is hopeful to get one or both of these guys back, he's also confident in the depth behind them in case they can't go.
Veteran defensive lineman Dennis Briggs likely won't be playing in this game, with Coach Norvell saying Briggs has been banged up and missed last week against Duke because of it. With the insane depth on the defensive line, it makes sense to rest Briggs until he's 100%.
Wake Forest has played three different QBs this season due to injuries. The normal starter Mitch Griffis has struggled at times, and was benched in favor of Michael Kern, who recently hurt his shoulder. Griffis has been dealing with some sort of ailment that forced him to miss the last game against Pitt, so in came third stringer Santino Marucci, who played... like a third stringer. Coach Clawson has said Griffis is back practicing this week, and that he's splitting time with Marucci, so it's another week where Florida State has to prepare for two QBs, one of which has very limited film out there.
The injuries don't stop there for Wake, as they have some depth at wide receiver, offensive line, tight end, and defensive back that are all out or dealing with injuries, but it's just depth pieces, not key starters.
Burning Questions
Can Florida State Have Defensive Success Against the Slow Mesh?
Wake Forest's slow mesh offense has given Florida State fits under defensive coordinator Adam Fuller, averaging well over 30 PPG in two contests since Coach Norvell and Coach Fuller arrived in Tallahassee. How much of that was Sam Hartman being elite, and how much of it was FSU's linebackers falling for the eye candy?
Hartman transferring to Notre Dame means FSU will find out quickly if it was just Hartman or if it really is the system. Either way, Florida State's linebackers are going to have to play soundly and not fall for the slow mesh point. I'm expecting FSU to run heavy-man defense on the outside to not even give the chance for the DBs to fall asleep with eyes in the backfield, and that should keep anything downfield from being an easy completion. The defensive line is going to have to dominate the line of scrimmage, something that should be doable with one of the five worst teams in the country in sacks allowed at 4.5 per game.
Will Florida State Play Disciplined Football on the Road?
There's been a little home cooking for Wake Forest in their two ACC games in Winston Salem this year, with them being penalized just 6 times for 51 yards, compared to their opponents' 27 penalties for 243 yards. That's an astronomical difference and one that can keep a bad team in the game. You'd hope that Florida State can be a more disciplined team than Georgia Tech (who still won 30-16), and Pittsburgh.
Turnovers will also likely play a huge factor in this game, and Florida State's offense can't start the game how they did last week against Duke with two turnovers on downs and a pick six. Wake Forest will likely give you the ball, with 16 turnovers in seven games. In Wake's losses, they've averaged three turnovers per game and just over 1 takeaway per game. In their wins, it's just under two turnovers per game and just over two takeaways per game. As long as Florida State takes care of the football while taking advantage of what Wake is giving them, this really shouldn't be a game.
What Can Florida State Do to Avoid a Sleepy Start?
I get it as much as anyone. It's a noon game in Winston-Salem against a meddling Wake Forest team and a crowd that very rarely brings good energy, but you'll be playing a program that hasn't beaten a Top 10 team since 1946. They'll want that streak to end eventually. However, Wake has beaten FSU three times in a row. If that's not enough to get up for this game, I'm not sure what will.
Nonetheless, I'd love for the defense to come out firing and set the tone early. We've seen often in early parts of the game where the defense is feeling the other team's offense out early, getting a feel for how they want to play the game and reacting to it instead of coming out swinging.
FSU's offense has to get off to a good start too. Clemson and Duke were much closer games than they needed to be because the offense struggled to get started.
Game Forecast
Florida State is currently favored by 20.5 points, with an over/under of 51.5.
As Kirk Herbstreit mentioned, Florida State won't want to mess around in this game. FSU hasn't beaten Wake Forest since 2018, and it's not exactly an electric atmosphere in Winston-Salem. This has a very real chance to be another sleepy noon game, much like the Boston College game was, and you don't want to be the first Top 10 team Wake Forest has beaten since 1946. There's also a chance Coach Norvell wants to put it on to a Wake Forest team that's given them some fits. I think Florida State starts off slow, much like they have in a lot of these noon games, before turning it on in the second half to get a sneaky backdoor cover.
I'll take the 'Noles 38-13
READ MORE: Florida State To "Probably" Be Without Veteran Defensive Lineman Against Wake Forest
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