Is Florida or Miami a tougher opponent for the Seminoles in 2022?

The Seminoles will be looking to defeat both rivals in a single season for the first time since 2016.

2022 is a pivotal season for Mike Norvell and Florida State. While FSU’s schedule sets up nicely for a comeback season, part of a successful season is beating Miami and Florida. Both programs enter 2022 excited about new coaches, but which one of these games will be the toughest for the 'Noles this upcoming season?

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While Clemson has emerged as a rivalry game for Florida State, the annual battles against in-state teams Miami and Florida are the rivalries that fans from all sides debate all year.

The Seminoles were able to knock off Miami last season, but they came up short against Florida after Jordan Travis went out with an injury. Both games are typically tough, but which one does FSU have a better chance of winning? Can Mike Norvell lead the 'Noles to wins versus both?

Let’s examine each team first.

Miami Hurricanes

What a time to be alive for Miami. The prodigal son, Mario Cristobal, has returned after a successful stint at Oregon, and they seem to be all in, for now, on the NIL stuff.

Tyler Van Dyke is a primary reason for the optimism Miami is getting in the preseason previews. He finished the season throwing for 6 straight 300 yard games. His emergence helped them stay bowl eligible as they finished 2021 at 7-5.

They lose Charleston Rambo after he set the single-season record for receptions and yards, and there isn’t a lot behind him coming back.

Cristobal is known as a run-first coach, and new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis is going to have to fix an offensive line and running game that was below average last year averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

Kevin Steele takes over a defense that needs to replace both starting defensive ends, but Leonard Taylor is someone to watch as a sophomore season standout. Their linebackers are going to struggle, but they have pieces in the secondary as James Williams, Tyrique Stevenson, Kam Kitchens and Avante Williams monitor the back end.

Simply put the defense gave up a laughable 98% scoring rate in the red zone in 2021. Remember, FSU was excellent there last year and has been under Mike Norvell. You can go ahead and highlight this stat.

Florida Gators

Billy Napier is a case study in how he worked his way up from being an assistant, to building a low-level FBS program, to getting his chance at a Power 5 like Florida.

His high-powered offenses dominated at Louisiana, so let’s start there. Ron Sale, their offensive coordinator that came over with Napier, are both adamant about having a strong running game. Florida lost their top 3 running backs from 2021, but they got Montrell Johnson to come over from Louisiana as well. If former 5-star running backs Lorenzo Lingard and Demarkus Bowman are ever going to realize their potential it’s going to be now.

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Anthony Richardson is a wild card for sure. Florida landed former Ohio State quarterback Jack Miller from the portal, so there will be competition. Richardson is boom or bust - when he’s on he’s a major dual-threat.

Florida returns just 13 of 53 offensive scores. That’s a big hole.

Defensively can Florida stop the run? They are 0-7 since 2021 when they give up 4.5 yards per carry. In last year’s game, Jordan Travis and the FSU running game were having success until the shoulder injury hit Travis. 

The defense has a lot of holes to fill.

What’s the Verdict?

While FSU beat Miami in 2021, 2022 seems like the year FSU should beat Florida.

First, new regimes are tough and Florida also has a tough schedule. They’ll have success on offense but that defense is going to be a really sore spot for them in 2022.

I expect FSU to be able to score and control the game running the ball.

But here’s the caveat, I think FSU has a great chance at beating Miami also. Especially if Cristobal and Gattis take the ball out of Van Dyke’s hand and try to be a running team. They return 3 linemen on a unit that was below average last season.

Add the holes in the front seven, and Miami will have to outscore teams in 2022.

Every year I kid about the score of the FSU versus Miami game - but this season I feel confident that the Seminoles can win both. I feel really good about the Gator game right now. 

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