NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma Sooners
It feels like just yesterday Florida State (9-3, 5-3 ACC) was preparing for a showdown with LSU in New Orleans. Nearly four months later, the Seminoles are set to match up with another premier brand in the sport, the Oklahoma Sooners (6-6, 3-6 Big 12), in the 2022 Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium. It's been a season of progression for FSU under third-year head coach Mike Norvell as the program has an opportunity to conclude the campaign on a six-game winning streak while breaking into double-digit victories for the first time in six years.
READ MORE: Game Preview - Florida State vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners are in the process of reloading under first-year head coach Brent Venables. However, the team is dealing with a variety of opt-outs due to NFL draft decisions or transfers. Oklahoma will be missing at least four starters in running back Eric Gray, left tackle Anton Harris, right tackle Wanya Morris, and defensive tackle Jalen Redmond. That doesn't even include players who won't suit up because of injuries like veteran running back Marcus Major and starting center Andrew Raym.
Oklahoma has struggled to stop the run entering the postseason as its defense surrenders 189 rushing yards per contest and has yet to win a game when an opponent surpasses 200 yards on the ground (0-5). With that being said, the Sooners lead the Big 12 in tackles for loss and have a capable and explosive offense behind the reliable Dillon Gabriel and playmaker Marvin Mims Jr.
Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as the Seminoles take on the Sooners.
Dustin Lewis (@Dussttin)
I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that the conclusion of the season is finally right in front of us. There's no doubt that Florida State has an opportunity to enter the offseason on a high note with an anticipated 2023 season waiting in the wings.
For now, the Seminoles will need to put their blinders on and focus on finishing strong against the Sooners in the Cheez-It Bowl. In my opinion, there are two key matchups to watch in this contest.
The obvious one is Florida State's defensive line against Oklahoma's offensive line. The Seminoles are expected to be at full strength on Thursday night while the Sooners will be missing three starters up front, including both of their tackles. That'll mean a true freshman will be manning the left tackle spot against Jared Verse. I like FSU's odds if that's the case.
On the other side of the ball, the Seminoles have rushed for over 200 yards in seven straight games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has struggled mightily against the run and ranks near the bottom of the country in total defense statistically. The Sooners have yet to win a game when the opposition crosses 200+ yards on the ground.
In the end, I expect a competitive game but Oklahoma will find itself a little overmatched due to the number of opt-outs and transfers. The Sooners are missing at least 20 members of their roster against Florida State.
Season Prediction Record: 10-2
Florida State 42, Oklahoma 27
Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)
The season is coming to a close and it's been a wild ride but overall a good one for the Seminoles. FSU heads into this game getting a chance to compete for its 10th win on the season.
Going into this game we've seen a lot of losses for Oklahoma in players opting out, and getting prepared for the NFL draft including two starting tackles, leading rusher, fourth-best receiver, and an impactful defensive tackle. On the other hand, Florida State has its entire roster participating. No opt outs for Mike Norvell's squad.
The Sooners have a talented quarterback with UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel and FSU's pass rush will come in key on Thursday night. Look for Jared Verse and Derrick McLendon to take advantage of Oklahoma's inexperienced offensive line off the edge. On the other side of the ball, the matchup to watch will be Florida State's running game against the Sooners' poor rushing game defense. Trey Benson, Treshaun Ward, and Lawrance Toafili should have a fun night. It won't be to the caliber of Duquesne in week zero but it could get close.
I think FSU wins this one comfortably. A great night for fans in the stands wearing garnet and gold to finish off the 2022 season.
Season Prediction Record: 11-1
Florida State 44, Oklahoma 21
Austin Veazey (@NolesVikesVeaz)
If I want FSU to have any chance at Duke this weekend in basketball, Oklahoma is going to have to win this game. I just don’t see a way that happens.
With them missing their top running back and both of their starting tackles on offense, Jared Verse and company are going to be licking their chops to get after Dillon Gabriel.
Oklahoma is 0-5 when they’ve allowed their opponent to rush for 200 or more yards, FSU is on a 7-game 200+ yard streak. FSU cruises in this one
Season Prediction Record: 9-3
Florida State 41, Oklahoma 24
Charleston Bowles (@Cbowles01)
In their first bowl appearance since 2019, the Seminoles do enough offensively to defeat a more motivated Oklahoma squad than expected. The victory extends Florida State’s win streak to six and builds momentum for a 2023 season gearing up to be full of national expectations.
Season Prediction Record: 10-2
Florida State 38, Oklahoma 27
John Jenkins (@_jmj4_)
Florida State will look to end the season off on a high note with a win vs Oklahoma. A win against the Sooners will be the 10th which would be the best since 2016. With players declaring for the draft and entering the transfer portal on defense for the Sooners, I believe it will give the 'Noles a great advantage heading into the game. The Seminoles are healthy and I expect the theme of the season, which is a dominant rushing attack, to continue again in this game.
I believe FSU has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will favor the 'Noles big time. I expect the Sooners to put up some points but in the end, I expect Florida State to pull away.
Season Prediction Record: 11-1
Florida State 35, Oklahoma 21
Maddox Nebel (@MaddoxNebel)
This score is giving Oklahoma the sense of the doubt that they will come to compete against the 'Noles in the Cheez-it Bowl. Players like Johnny Wilson and Jordan Travis have made it clear that the team is hungry for a 10th win. Each program is on opposite sides of momentum and that should help aid the red-hot 'Noles to a bowl victory.
Season Prediction Record: 10-2
Florida State 28, Oklahoma 17
Jacob Stevens (@Jacob_Stevens26)
FSU has all the momentum in the world right now and it seems everyone is locked in on that 10th win of the season.
Season Prediction Record: 9-3
Florida State 35, Oklahoma 17
Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)
The Florida State Seminoles are still on the hunt for their first 10-win season since 2016. The only thing standing in the way is a matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners.
The Sooners hold the all-time record by a margin of 6-1, their most recent victory against the Seminoles coming in the 2011 matchup in Doak Campbell Stadium. Since, both programs have seen their fair share of the limelight. The 'Noles have won a national championship and appeared in the College Football Playoff once. The Sooners, on the other hand, rank in the top-5 of most College Football Playoff appearances with playoff games in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Now, these two storied programs are set to face off in the Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando.
Florida State's football program has been on a rollercoaster of a ride in the years since that 2014 playoff appearance. But, a promising 2022 campaign that ended with a 9-3 regular season record appears to have the Seminoles on an upward trajectory. The same cannot be said, however, for the Oklahoma Sooners.
Following the departure of head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Caleb Williams to USC, the Sooners were eager to find a proven head coach and veteran quarterback to reload for the 2022 season. Oklahoma turned to Clemson DC Brent Venables and former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and the preseason excitement formulated an expectation that the Sooners could remain a national championship contender. However, the reality has been far from that expectation. OU clawed their way to a 6-6 regular season record suffering losses to TCU and Texas while defeating ranked opponents in Kansas and Oklahoma State.
These two programs appear to share the same goal: right the ship. For the Seminoles, a win in their first bowl game in three years could add that extra bit of momentum heading into what many expect to be a promising 2023 season. For the Sooners, a win in the Cheez-It Bowl game allows them to finish with above .500, and it could signal a course correction in the immediate future. There's no denying that a matchup between the Seminoles and the Sooners promises to be an exciting one.
ESPN's FPI indicates that Florida State has a 65.2% chance of winning with Vegas odds having the 'Noles as a 9.5 point favorite. Oklahoma has a lot of key contributors electing to forgo the bowl game whereas the Seminoles have a lot of their veteran leaders opting in. Personally, that's enough for me to believe that the Seminoles will outlast Oklahoma and come away with a win to close out the 2022 season.
Season Prediction Record: 9-1
Florida State 38, Oklahoma 28
CONSENSUS: Florida State (8-0)
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