Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Tarleton State Texans

Florida State is seeking their first 3-0 start since the 2020-21 season

Austin Veazey | Nov 12, 2024

Nov 9, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward AJ Swinton (19) reacts after a play during the second half against the Rice Owls at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State has started the season 2-0 and has a chance to move to 3-0 for the first time since the 2020-21 season, which was also the last time they made the NCAA Tournament. They'll have a great chance to do so on Tuesday night against a struggling Tarleton State team.

Tarleton State has scored 62 points in each of their first two games while allowing their opponents, SMU and Sam Houston State, to score 90+. This will be a good opportunity for FSU to pad their metrics before playing some tougher opponents as long as they handle business.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN+ from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Tarleton State Texas Breakdown (0-2)

Tarleton State has returned only 121 total points from last year's team, which went 25-10 and finished second in the WAC. That's not even 5% of their production from last season, so, understandably, they've struggled to start. One of those two returners has blossomed into a star in their first two games.

Bubu Benjamin is pacing the team with 19.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG and is a surprisingly good passer for a big with 3.0 APG. He crashes the offensive glass hard for three per game, can stretch out to three-point range, and is shooting 75% from the free-throw line. His biggest downfall so far has been turnovers, with 12 through two games. Against a Florida State team with active hands, that could be a big issue, and they've done a good job against bigs so far this season.

The reason for his assists (and turnovers) is Tarleton State is a heavy back-cutting team. A solid amount of their points come from faking hand-offs and cutting to the basket into an open paint, and back-cuts are a good way to combat a team with ball pressure like FSU.

Unfortunately, they're a small team. Of the nine players who have played double-digit minutes, six are between 6'2" and 6'4". The other three are either 6'6" and 6'7". Against an FSU team that is one of the tallest and longest in the country, that could be an issue.

The other main scorer for them has been Matt Krass, who came off the bench in their first two games. He is second on the team in three-pointers attempted, and he seems to be the only player that they want to run sets for to open up shots.

Chris Mpaka is their other big, who I'd expect to start to combat FSU's size. He's not shooting a lot and rebounds well enough, but he's strictly an interior player. Izzy Miles, their other returning player, is taking ten shots per game but isn't making them at a high level yet. It's a short rotation with players that mostly aren't standing out.

Tarleton State will press on defense, and they've forced a turnover rate north of 20% so far, but their offense is turning it over at a rate close to 30%, one of the worst marks in the country. They've made 40% of their threes, but they've only taken 25 on the season and have been bad inside the arc.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (2-0)

Florida State has gotten off to a strong start defensively, but the offense is still coming around for everyone not named Jamir Watkins. Watkins had 30 points in his last game against Rice, giving him two for his Florida State career and the first time a Seminole has had multiple 30-point games in his career since Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who scored 30+ four times.

Watkins also attempted 22 free throws, which is tied for the fifth highest in a game in program history, behind only Jim Oler, who had games with 30, 29, and 23 (twice) attempts. We knew he'd be responsible for most of FSU's offense, but his 36% usage rate may be unsustainable for team success. If he keeps that up, it'd be by far the most for a player in Coach Ham's tenure, as the highest for a non-walk-on in Hamilton's FSU tenure was Al Thornton's 30% in the 2006-07 season.

They will eventually need someone to step up as a second scorer. Malique Ewin got in a groove in the second half against Rice, and Taylor Bol Bowen had a great first game against Northern Kentucky, but they'll need someone to consistently take the pressure off Watkins. It would also help if the three-point shooting comes along at some point for the team.

The defense is top-20 in the country, forcing a turnover rate of 26.3% through two games. They'll have an opportunity to raise that against Tarleton State.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Tarleton State

G: Jordan Mizell
G: Izzy Miles
G: Nick Krass
F: Bubu Benjamin
F: Chris Mpaka

Keys to the Game

Expect A Lot of Turnovers

Through two games, Tarleton State has turned it over 45 times for a turnover rate of 29.5%, one of the worst marks in the country. They're facing a Florida State defense that has forced 39 turnovers for a turnover rate of 26.3%, one of the best marks nationally.

FSU should force at least 25 turnovers in this game with their ball pressure. Anything under that would likely be a disappointment, given how loose with the ball Tarleton State has been so far.

Florida State's Three-Point Shot

The Seminoles have struggled to shoot the ball in the first two games of the season, shooting just 9/41 (22%) from deep. They have talented shooters but they've yet to convert on open looks so far.

The good news is that FSU is at least generating open looks, but sooner or later, teams are going to put five people in the paint to stop Jamir Watkins and force outside shooting to beat them. Getting open looks against an inferior opponent is a good way to build some confidence and rhythm.

Two Texans To Watch

The only two players that Tarleton State seems to trust to take shots are Bubu Benjamin, a 6'7" forward, and Matt Krass. Benjamin is a better passer than you'd expect, while Krass is one player who TSU runs sets for the most to generate open threes. Izzy Miles takes a lot of shots, but he's shooting poorly early. These two are also great at seeing backdoor cutters, something they want to get a lot of. FSU will need active hands against their two scorers while watching out for cutters behind the defense.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 18 points with an over/under of 152, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Seminoles should run away with this game. They have the size advantage, they'll be able to force a lot of turnovers, and their defense has made it hard for teams to score on the inside. Tarleton State is likely the worst team on FSU's schedule, and they need to dominate this game to build up their metrics a little bit.

Florida State 81, Tarleton State 57

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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