Why Georgia Should Be Confident

As Georgia is set to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide as a 6.5 point favorite, we explain why they should be confident.

Uncharted territory. 

It's seemingly been the theme of this 2021 college football season. A Group of 5 member in the CFP rankings. A confusing Heisman trophy race. Coaching changes in the middle of college football playoff runs. In 2021, following two historically great offensive-led national champions, we have a defense leading the headlines in college football. 

It's uncharted, and it's uncommon. 

That includes Georgia entering an SEC Championship game as 6.5 points favorites against a conference foe in Alabama they haven't beaten since 2007.  

What makes this matchup different?

The biggest difference is Georgia is picked to win by most of the media, and both fanbases seemingly agree.

Georgia is going into the SEC Championship game favored by 6.5 points, and they are at an all-time high in confidence. Georgia has been number one in each College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings this season, the first team since the CFP rankings inception to do so. 

Alabama is on a different trajectory going into the SEC Championship game. After losing a regular-season matchup to an unranked Texas A&M, Alabama showed areas of weakness that you did not see from a Nick Saban-led team.

The Transient Property

Georgia and Alabama had four common opponents in 2021.

• Arkansas
• Auburn
• Florida
• Tennessee.

In the four games listed above, Alabama had an average margin of victory of 9.75 points, compared to Georgia’s average margin of victory of 28 points. While Alabama beat Tennessee by 28 points, Alabama had a 7-point lead going into the fourth quarter.

If you look at all twelve games from the regular season, Georgia still has a more impressive margin of victory. Georgia’s average margin of victory in 2021 was 33.8 points, compared to Alabama’s 22.4 points.

Is Georgia’s confidence warranted?

While it is important to remember the history of this matchup, it is more important to look at the body of work this season. While Kirby Smart has not beaten Nick Saban in the past, Smart is in a great position to do so on Saturday.

Going down the final stretch, Georgia has continued to improve and prove to be the team with fewer problem areas. Alabama on the other hand has been in four-quarter battles against LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn in three of the last four weeks. 

Yes, Georgia’s confidence is warranted. 

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