Athens Regional Preview: Can Georgia Tech Advance To Its First Super Regional Since 2006?

Tech baseball plays its first game of the Atlanta Regional tomorrow against UNC-Wilmington

Freshman outfielder Drew Burress against Florida State in the ACC Tournament / Georgia Tech Athletics

Jackets' baseball has a chance to break an eighteen-year long streak - and it starts on Friday.

Being named to the Athens Regional means Tech has an opportunity to make their first Super Regionals appeareance since 2006. However, the three teams that Tech plays in the regional will not make it easy for them. The tournament is set up in the following format:

Friday, May 31:

• Game 1: Army vs. Georgia, 1 p.m., ESPN+
• Game 2: Georgia Tech vs. UNC Willmington, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Saturday, June 1:

• Game 3: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, noon, TBA
• Game 4: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 6 p.m., TBA

Sunday, June 2:

• Game 5: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 loser, noon, TBA
• Game 6: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 6 p.m., TBA

For Tech to make the Super Regional round, they will need to avoid double elimination against any of the Army Black Knights, UNC-Wilmington Seahawks and Georgia Bulldogs. Fortunately, none of the opponents are a complete mismatch for Tech. However, the Jackets will need to learn from their games against ranked opponents in the ACC Tournament.

UNC-Wilmington (39-19, 20-7 conference record)

As their losses to Cornell, Pitt and Miami prove, Georgia Tech cannot overlook UNC-Wilmington. While the Coastal Athletic Association is not an especially strong conference, the Seahawks have the highest RPI in their conference at 34 per D1 Baseball. They also won the CAA over talented teams like Northeastern and College of Charleston. Offensively, their statistical profile is not especially impressive. They rank outside the top-100 in every metric except home runs. Still, their home run numbers are somewhat mitigated by a 21% strikeout rate, which ranks 225th-best in the country. Georgia Tech's pitchers should be able to readily throw strikes against this lineup and control the zone.

ATHENS REGIONAL
1. Georgia (7)
2. UNC Wilmington
3. Georgia Tech
4. Army pic.twitter.com/aE8coz4ePi

— Friday Starters (@fridaystarters) May 27, 2024

The two hitters Georgia Tech really needs to watch out for are first baseman Tanner Thach and centerfielder Trevor Marsh. One of the best players in the CAA, Thach's power is his calling card. He hit a team-leading 27 home runs and 74 RBIs while slugging .714 in 2024. Marsh is more of a contact hitter, indicated by his team-best .372 batting average and on-base percentage of .442. If one or both of Thach and Marsh get going early, the game could easily get away from the Yellow Jackets. Since head coach Randy Hood often deploys Thach and Marsh in the three and four hole, getting through the top of the lineup will be critical for Georgia Tech.

UNC-Wilmington's pitching staff has strong numbers, but it is fair to question how they will translate against a lineup like Georgia Tech's. RJ Sales is the team's ace, sporting a ERA of 3.70 and 87 strikeouts. The depth cannot be underestimated, either. Fellow starters like Jacob Shafer and Zane Taylor all threw more than 50 strikeouts and do not really walk batters. Some of those numbers are inflated by playing in the CAA, but this is still a talented rotation.

UNCW's pitching stats from 2024 / University of North Carolina Wilmington Athletics

Georgia Tech can put themselves in position to beat UNCW by limiting the Thach-Marsh duo. If they force the other hitters in the lineup to generate offense, it becomes much easier to pitch to them. The Yellow Jackets have been great at getting on-base (sixth-best OBP in the country per Friday Starters) and there is no reason they cannot continue to do so against the Seahawks. It all comes down to whether they can muster the power to turn baserunners into runs.

Army Black Knights (31-21, 20-9 conference record)

On paper, Army's strengths are entirely in their rotation. Although they produce walks at a respectable rate, there are few other strengths in their offensive profile. They struggle to score runs and have very little power in their lineup, which is not a great combination with the 178th-best batting average in the country per Friday Starters. This is a matchup that Georgia Tech's rotation should be able to handle.

If the Black Knights have any chance of making noise in the regional, it will need to come from a rotation that limits runs. When looking at their SOS, one could argue that their runs-allowed numbers are inflated by facing weak lineups. Nevertheless, the starting combination of Matthew Ronnenbaum and Justin Lehman has performed well. Both starters posted sub-4.00 ERAs and respectable strikeout numbers. Beyond them, Andrew Berg is probably their best high-leverage reliever after posting a 2.00 ERA across his 20 appearances. However, neither the starters nor the bullpen project to be an especially difficult matchup for Georgia Tech.

Army reliever Andrew Berg racked up 30 strikeouts in 20 relief appearances on a 2.00 ERA in 2024 / Army West Point Athletics

Army would need to pull off a shocking upset over Georgia in order for Georgia Tech to face them in Game 4 (assuming a Georgia Tech win in Game 2). While that scenario is admittedly unlikely, the Yellow Jackets have the offensive firepower to score against Army's rotation. Even with the massive questions around Georgia Tech's own arms, I am still skeptical of Army's bats being able to take advantage.

Georgia Bulldogs (39-15, 17-14 conference record)

It is basically a guarantee that the Yellow Jackets are going to have to go through Georgia in order to make it out of the Athens Regional. When these two teams played earlier in the year in their three games of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, Georgia took both games after the opening game was canceled due to weather. However, the 0-2 record against the Bulldogs is slightly deceiving. In the first game, Georgia Tech lost 3-1 due to stranding 12 runners on base. They lost the second game, 11-9, after the bullpen melted down over the last three innings. In both games, they got strong performances out of their starters and adequate offense. Converting on their opportunities or a more even bullpen performance would have given them a win in either of those games.

Fortunately, the Yellow Jackets will likely an opportunity to redeem themselves if they can win their first game. It will not be easy - the Bulldogs have a lethal offense headlined by third baseman Charlie Condon. His 35 home runs this year came on a ridiculous .443 batting average and 1.601 OPS. Condon actually was fairly quiet in the first Georgia Tech-Georgia game, going hitless in his three at-bats. He made up for it in the second game by driving in two runs in his five at-bats. The Jackets' rotation will need to adjust accordingly to keep Condon closer to the former statline.

Georgia third baseman Charlie Condon leads the nation in batting average, home runs and OPS. / Georgia Athletics

The Bulldogs are top-10 in the nation in runs per-game, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage largely because this lineup's talent does not stop at Condon. 1st baseman Corey Collins, 2nd baseman Slate Alford, shortstop Kolby Branch and DH Dylan Goldstein all hit double-digit homers and posted OPSs over .900.It is easily one of the most talented lineups Georgia Tech's pitchers have faced all year - they will have their work cut out for them to keep them off the scoreboard.

Things get a bit easier on the pitching side. The Bulldogs are a team that generates a lot of whiffs - their strikeout percentage of 26.5% ranks 11th in the country. However, everything else is rather mediocre. Leighton Finley has played like a clear ace this year, garnering an ERA of 4.53 and 69 strikeouts in his fourteen starts. Christian Mcrna has only one less strikeout, but his ERA of 5.61 indicates he is a bit more susceptible to being tagged. Still, the pitcher that poses the highest chance of making batters look silly is Kolten Smith. His staggering 94 strikeouts on a 4.40 ERA gave hitters plenty of problems last year. Georgia's bullpen is more of a mixed bag - DJ Radtke and Zach Devito rarely allow runs, but do not force many strikeouts. Zach Harris and Josh Roberge have far better strikeout numbers, but allow runs at ERAs of 6.83 and 7.41 respectively. Georgia Tech's lineup has a good chance of doing some damage if they are able to get past the starter.

Georgia is one of the few teams that could win a shootout against Georgia Tech. This matchup is likely contingent on which team executes better in the game's pivotal moments. The Yellow Jackets' bullpen is going to have to play above its head to close out this lineup, but it would not be surprising to see Georgia's starters struggle against Georgia Tech's bats. Based on the last two games, there is a reasonable chance that Tech's starters can go five or more innings against this lineup, so starting pitching is less of a worry.

To be clear, Georgia Tech's opponents in the Athens Regional are not going to let them sleepwalk to breaking their streak. However, with the exception of Georgia, I think the Yellow Jackets should be favored in all of those games. Georgia Tech's advantage in any matchup is their ability to get on base at an elite clip. It is merely a matter of converting that traffic into runs while the pitching staff gives the offense the space it needs.

The Jackets will have an opportunity to do exactly that against the Seahawks this evening at 7 pm on ESPN+ at Foley Field in Athens, GA.