Georgia Tech Basketball: ESPN's BPI Does Not Like the Yellow Jackets Chances of Upsetting Clemson
After two ugly performances last week against Syracuse and SMU, Georgia Tech is hoping to put that behind them and move forward. That is not going to be easy however, as the Clemson Tigers are coming to Atlanta to face the Yellow Jackets and Clemson has been one of the ACC's better teams this season. While the ACC is certainly not the top basketball conference as they have been in the past, the Tigers are still an NCAA Tournament-level team and made a run to the elite eight last year. Georgia Tech is coming off a disastrous performance vs SMU, a game in which they trailed by more than 30 points at times. The Yellow Jackets turned it over 22 times on Saturday vs the Mustangs and allowed them to score 27 points off of those turnovers. SMU shot 14-28 from three and was completely outmanned.
Not surprisingly, Georgia Tech is an underdog in both the betting markets and with ESPN's BPI (Basketball Power Index). BPI is giving Clemson a 75% chance to win the game tonight.
But what is BPI? Here is how ESPN describes it:
"The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."
Clemson (13-4, 5-1 ACC), who spent one week in the top 25 in December and is currently tied for second place in the ACC behind Duke, has won all four of their conference games at home, including a 77-57 victory over Florida State last Saturday, and are 1-1 in ACC games on the road.
The oldest and longest-running series the Yellow Jackets have with an ACC member, the 146 all-time meetings are more than 30 greater than Tech has played with any other ACC opponent. The series dates back to the 1912-13 season, when John Heisman coached the Tech basketball team. The teams have split the last 10 meetings, and split the two games in 2023-24 each team winning on the other’s home court. Tech won 93-90 in double-overtime at Clemson, and the Tigers defeated the Jackets, 81-57, in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets have swept the season series just once (2019-20) since the 2004-05 season. Tech has an all-time record of 46-28 against the Tigers at home, including a 27-15 record at Alexander Memorial Coliseum and a 6-6 mark at McCamish Pavilion.
A win over Clemson would give Georgia Tech its first Quad 1 win of the 2024-25 season. The Yellow Jackets are 0-5 vs. Quad 1 teams this season with losses to Duke (2), Georgia (26), North Carolina (39), SMU (44), and Oklahoma (47). Tech was 4-7 vs. Quad 1 teams in 2023-24.
Sophomore guard Naithan George remains the ACC leader in assist average (6.5 per game) and ranks 13th nationally. He is the first Tech player since Iman Shumpert to reach 100 assists in each of his first two years. George’s assist average is the highest rate for a Tech played since Drew Berry averaged 6.6 in 1995-96 (and 6.7 in 1994-95). It is also the 6th-highest average in Tech history behind those two Barry seasons.
Tech players have missed a total of 39 games this season because of injury, illness or other absence. Kowacie Reeves, Jr., has missed the last 11 games with a foot injury, Luke O’Brien missed the last 6 games, also with a foot injury, and Doryan Onwuchekwa has missed the last 7 for personal reasons. Those three players had combined to start 20 games before their current absences.
Duncan Powell has scored in double figures 6 times this season, all vs. Power 4 opponents, 4 vs. ACC teams. He is averaging 10.5 ppg vs. ACC teams, 10.0 vs. P4 teams. Powell has averaged 11 points and 6.2 rebounds over his last 6 games. The Sacramento State transfer has hit 47.7% (21-of-44) from the floor, 47.6% (10-of-21) from three-point range and 14-of-23 from the foul line in that stretch.
Javian McCollum has scored 20 or more points in 3 of his last 5 games (21 vs. Notre Dame, 20 vs. Boston College, 20 at SMU), and has averaged 17.0 points over his last 5 games (scored 18 vs. Alabama A&M). He dropped 5 3-point field goals at SMU, a season-high.
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