Georgia Tech Basketball vs North Carolina: Official Preview and Prediction

Will Georgia Tech win its conference opener against North Carolina?

Jackson Caudell | Dec 10, 2022

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech opens conference play on the road today against the preseason No. 1 team in the country today. The Yellow Jackets come into the game today winners of two straight while the Tar Heels have been unable to live up to their lofty preseason ranking and have lost four straight. You can bet that North Carolina and head coach Hubert Davis are going to be anxious to end this losing streak and get their season back on track against Georgia Tech.

One of the main storylines of this game will be the status of one of North Carolina's star players Armando Bacot. Bacot did not play in the loss to Virginia Tech, but he is reportedly trending in the right direction to be able to play against the Yellow Jackets.

Hubert Davis says that Armando Bacot practiced yesterday on a limited basis and is "trending in the right direction," and today his reps will go up.

Has a chance to play tomorrow vs. Georgia Tech.
— Brendan Marks (@BrendanRMarks) December 9, 2022

If Bacot plays, that could be a huge problem for Georgia Tech. Bacot was the preseason ACC player of the year and is the No. 6 scorer in the ACC (16.1 PPG) as well as the No. 2 rebounder. Georgia Tech is a team that lacks size and if Bacot plays, that will make this game much more difficult.

The biggest key in this game might be whether Georgia Tech can score enough on the Tar Heels. The Yellow Jackets come into the game with the 12th-ranked offense in the ACC, but UNC is dead last in scoring defense. The defensive numbers for North Carolina have been dreadful this season. No. 15 in the ACC in scoring defense, No. 11 in opponent field-goal percentage, and No. 13 in opponent three-point field-goal percentage. If Georgia Tech wants to get its offense going today, this is the opponent to do it against.

Georgia Tech guard Miles Kelly — Miles Kelly has been Georgia Tech's top scorer this season / Georgia Tech Athletics

While the Tar Heels can't seem to stop anybody, their offense is among the ACC's best. UNC ranks No.2 in scoring offense in the conference and guard Caleb Love is the top scorer in the ACC at 19.0 PPG. Another player to watch is guard R.J Davis, who is the No. 10 scorer in the ACC at 15.4 PPG.

The defense has been Georgia Tech's calling card so far this season. The Yellow Jackets rank No. 2 in the ACC in opponent three-point field goal percentage and are near the top half of the league in most defensive categories. This will also be a matchup of the top-ranked defensive rebounding team in the ACC in UNC vs the No. 2 offensive rebounding team in Georgia Tech.

North Carolina comes into this game as a 13.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks. Playing at home is a huge plus and North Carolina is still one of the most talented rosters in the country despite the losing streak. Advanced rankings and stats also favor the Tar Heels heavily in this game. UNC is 24th in the KenPom ratings compared to Georgia Tech at No. 119. In the Sagarin Rankings, UNC is No. 34 and Georgia Tech is No. 102. ESPN's analytics gives the Tar Heels a greater than 85% chance to win this game.

Historically, North Carolina has not had a lot of trouble with Georgia Tech. North Carolina has a 71-27 lead in the all-time series between the two teams, and a 57-25 advantage since Tech joined the ACC. The Tar Heels have won 11 of the last 14 games in the series and each of the last two (Per Georgia Tech PR).

Score Prediction:

Georgia Tech forward Ja'von Franklin — Can Georgia Tech upset North Carolina on the road today? / Georgia Tech Athletics

If Bacot does indeed play, this is going to be a tough game for Georgia Tech to win. While the defense for the Yellow Jackets has been good, they have not had to face a talented team of scorers like UNC has in Bacot, Love, and Davis. While North Carolina does not have a good defense, I have not seen anything from Georgia Tech's offense that makes me think they can consistently take advantage of that.

The home-court advantage is also going to be in North Carolina's favor. I think that is going to be the deciding factor. North Carolina's terrible defense allows Georgia Tech to hang around and cover the spread, but UNC is just to talented to keep losing and will beat the Yellow Jackets in Chapel Hill today.

Final Score: North Carolina 80, Georgia Tech 72

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