ESPN's FPI Predicts Every Game on Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule

FPI is not optimistic about the Yellow Jackets chances of getting back to another bowl game this season

Dec 22, 2023; Tampa, FL, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) warms up prior to the Gasparilla Bowl against the UCF Knights at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 season is getting closer and Georgia Tech is going to be participating in the first big game of the season when they face off against Florida State in Dublin, Ireland. It will be a huge test for both teams that will give us a sense of how their seasons might go.

Georgia Tech has one of the nation's toughest schedules and that has played a huge factor into why their projected season win total has been low at most sportsbooks. Not only are the sportsbooks low on Georgia Tech from a wins perspective, ESPN's FPI is too and they just released predictions for almost every game on the Yellow Jackets schedule.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

ESPN's FPI predicted almost every game on Georgia Tech's schedule and here were the results. 

Game 1 vs Florida State: ESPN's FPI gives Florida State an 80% chance to win (0-1, 0-1 ACC)

I think FPI is wrong about Georgia Tech's chances in this game. I am not saying the Yellow Jackets should be favored, but they have a much better chance to win this game than most might think. If the defense has taken enough of a step forward and the offense remains potent, they have a chance to pull a big upset in the first game. FPI likes Florida State by a lot here though.

Game 2 vs Georgia State: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 67% chance to win (1-1, 0-1)

While I do think that Dell McGee is going to get Georgia State competing in the Sun Belt, it might be a rocky first year for him. I like Georgia Tech quite a bit here and think they will win handily against the Panthers.

Game 3 at Syracuse: ESPN"s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 52% chance to win (2-1, 1-1)

FPI views this as a true toss up game and I think it is an interesting matchup. Syracuse is entering into a new era with Fran Brown as the head coach and they brought in some talented transfers, namely Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, and have a favorable schedule. This is a home game, but I like Georgia Tech to get the road win while Syracuse still figures out how to fit these pieces together.

Game 4 vs VMI: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 98% chance to win (3-1, 1-1)

No disrespect here, but this should be a game that is over by halftime.

Game 5 at Louisville: ESPN's FPI gives Louisville a 78% chance to win (3-2, 1-2)

FPI sees Louisville as a pretty big favorite in this game. It will be tough to beat the Cardinals on the road, but I think Georgia Tech has a chance to get the victory. This is a game that they had last year, but let slip away in the second half and that will be plenty of motivation for them to try and get the win on the road against a stout Louisville defense.

Game 6 vs Duke: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 58% chance to win this game (4-2, 2-2)

FPI likes Georgia Tech against Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils and so do I. Diaz might get the Blue Devils back to winning in the future, but they lost a lot from the talented teams of the Mike Elko and don't have better replacements. It could be a rough first year for Diaz at Duke.

Game 7 at North Carolina: ESPN's FPI gives North Carolina a 65% chance to win this game (4-3, 2-3)

Another FPI pick that I disagree with. I know it can't account for these kinds of things, but Georgia Tech has made it a habit to beat North Carolina and plays them well nearly every year. I also think the Tar Heels might be in for a tough year in 2024. While they have a favorable schedule, they no longer have an NFL quarterback under center and there is no guarantee their defense is going to be any better. The game might be on the road, but this is a very winnable game for Georgia Tech.

Game 8 vs Notre Dame (Mercedes Benz Stadium): ESPN's FPI gives Notre Dame an 86% chance to win this game (4-4, 2-3)

Notre Dame is a heavy favorite here according to FPI and the preseason No. 7 team is going to be a very tough team to beat. The Fighting Irish did suffer a big loss last week when their starting left tackle went down for the year and there is still some unknowns to their offense as a whole. Notre Dame deserves to be favored and will be a very tough test for Georgia Tech.

Game 9 at Virginia Tech: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 60% chance to win this game (4-5, 2-4)

FPI leans towards the Hokies here in Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech is a team that is getting a lot of love in the preseason as a possible ACC darkhorse and it is not hard to see why. They return a lot of production, have a dynamic quarterback, and a very good defense. After the Notre Dame game, this is a tough test to get ready for.

Game 10 vs Miami: ESPN's FPI gives Miami a 61% chance to win this game (4-6, 2-5)

Miami came in at No. 19 in the initial AP poll yesterday and are thought of as one of the main contenders in the ACC. Everyone remembers what happened last year, including Miami. It will be interesting to see where Miami is at during this point of the year. They have one of the most talented rosters in the ACC, but if they are not living up to expectations, will they be up for a trip to Bobby Dodd Stadium? If not, Georgia Tech will be ready.

Game 11 vs NC State: ESPN's FPI gives NC State a 61% chance to win this game (4-7, 2-6)

Another game in which FPI makes Georgia Tech a slight underdog. Like Virginia Tech, NC State is getting a lot of preseason love, but a Thursday night trip to Atlanta might be tough. The Wolfpack have to figure out if Grayson McCall is the guy at quarterback and if he can improve the passing attack. This should be a fun game and Georgia Tech's final ACC game of the year.

The only game that FPI does not have a prediction for yet is for the rivalry matchup with Georgia in Athens, but it is safe to say that the Bulldogs will be favored heavily in that game, leaving Georgia Tech with a projected 4-8 record according to ESPN's FPI. While the schedule is tough, that would be a disappointing result for the season. I don' think that is going to happen though because one thing that Brent Key has shown he is capable of doing is pulling off an upset, which the Yellow Jackets are going to have to do in 2024 if they want to get to another bowl game or possibly contend in the ACC.