Georgia Tech Football: ESPN's FPI Favors Notre Dame This Weekend vs Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has been given a 16.7% chance to win this game by ESPN's FPI

Running back Jamal Haynes (11) and Georgia Tech will face Florida State in the first game of the 2024 college football season at noon EDT Saturday on ESPN. Photo by Danny Karnik/Georgia Tech Athletics

Georgia Tech picked up another ACC win against rival North Carolina, sending them into a four-game losing streak. It was a game controlled by the Yellow Jackets throughout until the fourth quarter when the Tar Heels scored 10 points unanswered and tied the game. As you know by now, Jamal Haynes had the game-winning 68-yard touchdown run to propel Georgia Tech to a 5-2 overall record and third win in conference play. 

Georgia Tech is just one win away from clinching bowl eligibility after defeating UNC. This week will present a different challenge and the Yellow Jackets will have their work cut out against No. 12 Notre Dame at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Yellow Jackets defense just had one of its most promising performances in key areas they have struggled in: sacks and turnovers. In the win against North Carolina, they had 3.5 sacks and two turnovers. They are going to need to be disruptive again if they are going to be able to pull off an upset. 

Notre Dame has won four consecutive matchups since their week two 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois. The defense has been a key factor for the Irish. In three of the four contests, Notre Dame has held opponents to under ten points. The Fighting Irish just had one of their best games of the season against Stanford holding them to just 200 yards of offense and seven points. In the win against the Cardinal, Howard Cross III had two sacks, Rylie Mills had a sack, Ben Minich a half sack, and Loghan Thomas a half sack. The Fighting Irish are good at getting after the quarterback and forcing the opposing offense into mistakes.

Georgia Tech is a heavy underdog in their matchup against Notre Dame, with the spread now at 11.5 favoring the Fighting Irish by more than a touchdown. ESPN’s FPI gives the Yellow Jackets just a 16.7% chance of winning the game. The Yellow Jackets have jumped four spots in the rankings after their win over North Carolina and are now at No. 42. Their chance to reach six wins has also increased to 92.7%. Georgia Tech remains the No. 8 team in the ACC despite their recent wins and trailing Miami, Clemson, Louisville, SMU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and California. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 30-6-1 and has won three consecutive games dating back to 2021. Georgia Tech's last win vs Notre Dame was in 2007.

A win for the Yellow Jackets can go a long way in building momentum and confidence for the rest of their tough schedule to end the season. Georgia Tech is facing a good defense and a team with College Football Playoff aspirations. They are good at every position and have a depth of players. It would be a marquee win in the Brent Key era.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."