Georgia Tech Football: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech the Edge In Saturday's Game

Georgia Tech is a heavy underdog against an ACC Rival

Oct 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. (2) runs the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech is coming off a loss to Notre Dame in a game where they were without star quarterback Haynes King. The Yellow Jackets hung tight in the game in the first half trailing 14-7 before Notre Dame pulled away in the second half. Georgia Tech struggled to muster up anything on the ground rushing for only 64 yards in the loss. It will be interesting to see how well the Yellow Jackets run the ball. In wins, Georgia Tech dominates the run game and gives opposing defenses fits. They will need that in order to knock off the Hokies.

An interesting stat that pertains to this matchup is that Georgia Tech has not lost at Virginia Tech since 2012, and has won four consecutive games in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech leads the all-time series 11-8 but the Yellow Jackets have won five of the last eight contests. 

Georgia Tech will leave the state one final time this season and hit the road. The Yellow Jackets are a heavy underdog for the second week in a row, with the spread at -9 for the Hokies. ESPN’s FPI gives the Yellow Jackets just a 36.1% chance of winning the game. Despite the loss to Notre Dame last week, Georgia Tech has moved up five spots to No. 37 and is now ranked as the No. 7 team in the ACC. Their chance to reach six wins has dropped down a little bit from 92.7 to 90.3. It remains to be seen if Haynes King will suit up on Saturday for the Yellow Jackets. 

Virginia Tech has won two consecutive games after a 2-3 start to the season. The offense has been rolling as of late scoring 30 points in each of its last three games. The Hokies also scored a season-high 42 points against Boston College in their win at home. The offense gained 394 yards against Miami, 337 yards against Stanford, and 532 yards against Boston College. It will not be easy to slow down this offense on Saturday for the Yellow Jackets but it will be important they force some negative plays and turnovers.

Saturday provided a different test for the Yellow Jackets, especially with one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC. The numbers may not prove it, but coming into the season Kyron Drones was considered one of the best and a breakout candidate for Virginia Tech. He has started to heat up lately and has found his groove on offense. A win can help Georgia Tech clinch bowl eligibility and build some momentum for the rest of the season.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."