Georgia Tech Football: ESPN's FPI Heavily Favors Georgia Tech In Thursday's Game vs NC State

Georgia Tech is a heavy favorite on Thursday Night

Aug. 24: Georgia Tech running back Jamal Haynes celebrates a touchdown against Florida State at Aviva Stadium. / Tom Maher, INPHO Via USA TODAY Sports

Georgia Tech is coming off one of its best victories in recent memory and defeated No. 4 Miami, No. 10 Florida State, and No. 17 North Carolina all in less than two years. Coach Key is now 6-1 against ACC-ranked opponents. They certainly aren’t strangers to pulling off big upsets. This matchup against NC State will have a different feel with it coming on a Thursday night and the Yellow Jackets being a featured team on ESPN’s main network for the second week in a row. Georgia Tech is looking to make some history of their own on Thursday night by finishing undefeated at home for the first time since 1999. 

A thing that has been most impressive about the Yellow Jackets is that they are finding other ways to win. For example, last week against Miami they used a two-quarterback system against Miami while Jamal Haynes went down with an injury. A usual significant indicator that they will be able to win is how well they run the football. In the six wins the Yellow Jackets have this season, they are averaging 249 rushing yards per game. When Georgia Tech is dominating the line of scrimmage and running the ball, they are tough to stop. 

NC State comes in at 5-5 and has won two of their last three games. The Wolfpack are looking to clinch bowl eligibility for the second consecutive season after playing in the Pop-Tarts Bowl in 2023. True freshman CJ Bailey has stepped in at quarterback for NC State. He's given the Wolfpack everything you would expect from a freshman highlight reel plays and some mistakes thrown into the mix. It’s been an up-and-down season for NC State as they have been ravaged by injuries. 

ESPN FPI gives the Yellow Jackets a 76.6% chance to win the game and they are currently a nine-point favorite against the spread. Georgia Tech has moved up since its win over top-ranked Miami and its bye week and is currently ranked as the No. 39 team. 

Georgia Tech is ranked as the No. 6 team in the ACC behind Miami, Clemson, SMU, Louisville, and Virginia Tech. Some will see this as just another game on the schedule but this one means more. It will be the final game for a lot of seniors who were a part of the rebuild and turnaround of the Yellow Jackets program. Standout program players like Zyeek Biggers, Jordan Williams, Sylvain Yondjouen, LaMiles Brooks, and many more. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Additional Links

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