Georgia Tech Football: ESPN's FPI Heavily Favors Miami vs the Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech heavy underdog against the Hurricanes

IMG_4929.jpg / Photo Via Arvon Bacon (SI)

Georgia Tech is coming into the matchup against Miami fresh off a bye week that was much needed. The Yellow Jackets have been missing their star quarterback Haynes King and their signal caller on defense LB Kyle Efford. Over the past few weeks, the Yellow Jackets offense has struggled without King at the helm. His presence and his ability to play loom large in this game. Defensively, the Yellow Jackets defense had its best outing of the season against Virginia Tech holding the explosive offense to 21 points and just seven points in the second half. The Yellow Jackets come into the matchup at 5-4. 

This is probably one of the least talked about rivalries in the ACC. The series is tied at 14-14. Georgia Tech has won three of the past five matchups against the Hurricanes and all were by one score. In fact, five of the last six matchups have been decided by one score. 

You may remember the infamous meltdown for the Hurricanes who had the game in hand but decided to run the football instead of kneeling down and ending the game. In the subsequent series, QB Haynes King connected with Christian Leary for the game-winning touchdown and sealed the victory. 

Miami comes into the matchup at 9-0 and is one of the best teams in the country. They are rated as the No. 4 team in the country in the first college football playoff rankings. The Hurricanes pose a different challenge for the Yellow Jackets this season because they are probably the most complete offense they have faced. The Hurricanes can run the football and also they can throw it. They lead the nation in points (47.4) and yards (556.9) per game. Miami has scored 35+ points in every game this season. The Yellow Jackets will have their work cut out trying to slow down their prolific offense. 

ESPN FPI gives the Yellow Jackets just a 23% chance to win the game and they are currently a 13-point underdog on the spread. Since their bye week, the Yellow Jackets have fallen to the No. 43 ranked team in FPI, sliding down six spots. Their chance to win six games has also dropped from 90.3% to 80.7%. It cannot be stated how much a win against a top-ranked opponent will do for what the Georgia Tech program is building. They had a signature win last year against No. 17 North Carolina at home and against No. 10 Florida State at the beginning of the season. It will be a completely different case on Saturday because Georgia Tech can prove they can defeat top teams in the country with playoff aspirations. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Additional Links

Georgia Tech Football: Yellow Jackets Reveal Uniform Combination For Saturday vs Miami

ACC Football: Predictions For Every Week 11 Game

Georgia Tech Basketball: Big Takeaways From Yellow Jackets Season Opening Win Against West Georgia