Georgia Tech Football: SP+ and ESPN's FPI Give Yellow Jackets a Slight Edge vs Virginia

Georgia Tech is favored by both analytical systems to continue its winning streak

Georgia Tech is trying to win their third straight game this Thursday and will welcome the 2-4 Virginia Cavaliers to Bobby Dodd Stadium for an important ACC Coastal clash for both teams. This feels like a game with two teams that are going in two opposite directions. Georgia Tech has gone 2-0 under interim head coach Brent Key and is hoping that a win on Thursday night can get them closer to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018. 

Virginia on the other hand has lost three straight games and appears to be one of, if not the worst team in the ACC. It has been a challenging year for first year head coach Tony Elliott, but his team is hoping a win over the Yellow Jackets on Thursday night can get them back on track. 

Georgia Tech has lost three of the last four matchups against Virginia / Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

The betting markets for this game have Georgia Tech as a small favorite over Virginia, but the analytical systems also seem to like Georgia Tech for the first time this year against an FBS opponent this season. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

This week, FPI is giving Georgia Tech a 56.5% chance to take down Virginia. FPI has not been kind to Georgia Tech this year, but has come around in the last couple of games. 

An identical look is also coming from ESPN's Bill Connelly, who uses his own SP+ system.

Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:

"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

SP+ is projecting Georgia Tech to win the game 28-26 and has a 54% chance of victory. 

The projections are picking a close game tomorrow night. Let's see how it plays out for the Yellow Jackets. 

Georgia Tech and Virginia will kick off tomorrow night at 7:30 p.m at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

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