Georgia Tech Football: What Does ESPN's FPI Say About The Matchup Against Rival Georgia?

Georgia Tech heavy underdogs against rival Georgia and are looking for first win over the Bulldogs since 2016

2T9JN61 ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 25: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Quarterback Haynes King (10) audibles during the college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on November 25, 2023, at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)

Georgia Tech is coming off a thrilling finish against NC State led by true freshman quarterback Aaron Philo who had an 18-yard game-winning touchdown run. For most of the game, the offense struggled to muster up anything besides a few big plays in the passing game. The running game struggled. Philo led the team with 57 rushing yards.

Defensively, the Yellow Jackets were exceptional through three quarters forcing three turnovers and limiting NC State to just 4.8 yards per play. However, NC State was able to get it going in the fourth quarter on the ground rushing for 150+ yards in the fourth quarter and QB CJ Bailey finished with three touchdowns. At the end of the day, a win is a win and the Yellow Jackets will look to improve to 8-4 after clinching back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2013 and 2014 last week. 

Georgia won its second consecutive game against UMASS in a dominant offensive performance for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs scored a season-high 59 points in the 38-point win. A thing to note for Georgia is they clinched a spot in the SEC championship game after a chaotic weekend in college football saw three ranked SEC teams fall in Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss. It’s been a roller coaster ride for the Bulldogs who have impressive wins against Texas, Clemson, and Tennessee. Georgia also has losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. You’ve seen flashes of how good Georgia can be this season and also an inconsistent group in other games. Regardless of how it has been, Georgia is one of the best teams in college football and the betting odds and computer ratings think the same. 

ESPN’s FPI gives the Yellow Jackets just a 10.2% chance to win against rival Georgia and they are currently a 21-point underdog on the road. It is hard to believe but Georgia Tech dropped a spot in the rankings this week despite their win over NC State on Thursday night. UCF and Vanderbilt are both ranked higher despite having worse records. The Yellow Jackets are ranked as the No. 40 team. Georgia Tech remains the No. 6 team in the ACC behind Miami, Clemson, SMU, Louisville, and Virginia Tech. 

Georgia leads the all-time series 71-39-5 and has been dominant in the series as of late. The Bulldogs have won 19 of the past 22 contests. Georgia Tech last won at Georgia in 2016 in a stunning 28-27 win in Athens. The Yellow Jackets showed some signs in last year’s contest between the rivals being competitive and falling short 31-23. This game will be a little different, especially with the health of quarterback Haynes King. Both teams have been winning a lot of games recently. Georgia has won four of its last five contests and Georgia Tech has won three of its last five contests. 

The Yellow Jackets are trending in the right direction with the program and are continuing to build great buzz and momentum around the program after another winning season. A win against Georgia would only further cement the direction this program is headed as the 2024 regular season comes to a close. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

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