Georgia Tech vs Duke: SP+ Predicts Final Score Between Yellow Jackets and Blue Devils

Who will win the matchup on Saturday between Georgia Tech and Duke?

Sep 14, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key on the sideline against the Virginia Military Institute Keydets in the second quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The game might not be getting a lot of national attention, but Georgia Tech is welcoming in an undefeated Duke into Bobby Dodd Stadium on Saturday for a primetime showdown. Duke reached 5-0 for the first time since 1994 last Saturday when they had a dramatic 20-point comeback vs arch-rival North Carolina and they have a lot of momentum coming into this game. Georgia Tech on the other hand is trying to recapture momentum and are coming off of a needed bye week. The Yellow Jackets had already played five games and after the loss to Louisville, needed the bye week to try and address some of the problems that they have been having this season.

While Duke might be an undefeated team, Georgia Tech is a pretty big favorite on Saturday. On Fanduel Sportsbook, the Yellow Jackets are 8.5-point favorites on Saturday vs Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils. Bill Connelly's SP+ sees the game differently. SP+ has Duke winning the game by a score of 28-27 and it gives the Blue Devils a 52% chance to win the game.

😍🧐 WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS 🤩😼

Mizzou 29, A&M 24
Ohio St 29, Iowa 12
Louisville 30, SMU 24
UGA 34, Auburn 20
Clemson 30, FSU 22
Miami 33, Cal 23
Ole Miss 32, S Caro 21
Huskies 24, Wolverines 23
Ducks 39, Spartans 11

Last 2 weeks: 55.7% ATS, 59.4% O/Uhttps://t.co/w7ALlZmRqT pic.twitter.com/rJD8fjMjo0

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 29, 2024

What exactly is SP+? Here is how Connelly himself describes it:

"As always, these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Whom do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don't have coming back? That's loosely what we ask when we're setting expectations for a team; it's also what these projections attempt to do objectively.

As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date."

Duke has been able to create a lot of havoc on defense and Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key noted this in his press conference yesterday:

"They are either first or second. I think maybe second right now in the country in TFLs and Havoc plays in stuffed runs, which are 0 to minus 1, minus 2 yard runs. 42 % stuffed runs right now, it's a credit to the way they play, the physicality they play with, the speed they play with. But when you look at who's creating the negatives, it's not just D-Linemen, it's not just D-Lineman. There's a lot of DBs. There's a lot of safety pressure, nickel pressure inside /outside. That's what Manny is, that's who he's been. They're able their blitzes with with because that's who they are to different motions and different things you know, he's a good football coach and you know he's a good defensive football coach going against him a bunch in my in my career I respect him as it's not just a coach but as a person you know I think he's a he's a good man and he's a heck of a football coach so excited to have him here and play here at Bobby Dodd."

Georgia Tech vs Duke kicks off this Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET and will be televised on the ACC Network.