Georgia Tech vs Georgia: Matchup Breakdown and Score Prediction
It's gameday in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech is one week removed from clinching bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018. While that is a big accomplishment for Brent Key in his first year as the head coach, there is an even bigger prize for them tonight.
Georgia comes into this game on a 28-game winning streak and aiming at their third straight national championship. On top of that, the Yellow Jackets have not won in this rivalry since 2016 and aside from the first half of last year's game, this has been a lopsided rivalry in favor of Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs.
When talking with the media this week, Key was asked if, as a Tech alum, how lopsided the rivalry has gotten in recent years bothered him and he was pretty honest about how he felt about it:
"To answer the first part of your question, you are damn right it does. Yeah it does. Rivalries are not one-sided, rivalries are competitive games between two games, that is what makes rivalries great, this is hands down one of the greatest rivalries in the country. Well, in order for that to be the case, outside of our scope, it needs to be competitive. That is on us, that is on us at Georgia Tech to be able to go out and compete for four quarters in a football game.
As far as selling it to the team, we have another opportunity to play another game and our rival. If you have to do that, you have to have ice water running through your veins."
Georgia Tech has not beaten Georgia since 2016
So can Georgia Tech make this a game tonight? Let's break the game down.
Georgia Tech's offense vs Georgia's defense
This is the best offense that Georgia Tech has brought into this game in quite some time, but they are still going to have their hands full with this Georgia defense tonight.
Georgia Tech is 5th in the ACC in yards per game (435.1), 2nd in rushing yards per game, (196.4), 6th in passing yards per game, and they have allowed the fewest sacks in the ACC.
This is going to be the best defense they have played all season, however.
While Georgia Tech's offense has been one of the most improved units in the entire country, they have not done very well against some of the better defenses they played. Until the final drive where they won the game, Georgia Tech only had 176 yards of offense. The Yellow Jackets finished with 254 yards against Clemson, but most of that came in the second half when the game was well in hand.
A big reason for that is the defensive lines both teams had. Miami and Clemson both have NFL players on their defensive lines and Georgia does as well. The offensive line for Georgia Tech has been a strength instead of a weakness, but if they can't handle Georgia's front seven, it will be a long day for the offense.
The Bulldogs defense is still among the nation's best, but I don't think it is as good as the last two seasons. Georgia is 2nd in the SEC in yards allowed, 1st in passing yards allowed, 3rd in rushing yards allowed, and 1st in PPG allowed.
What I am watching closely tonight will be Georgia Tech's run game vs Georgia's rush defense. If there has been a weakness in this Georgia defense, they have had games where their rushing defense was not a strength. Auburn ran for over 200 yards on the Bulldogs and Missouri had success a couple of weeks ago. Haynes King is a really good running quarterback and I think you might see Georgia Tech use similar concepts that Auburn used in the QB run game.
In the games against Miami and Clemson, King had a problem turning the ball over and if does that tonight, it will be a long night for Georgia Tech.
Keep the turnovers low, run the ball well, and use the running game to open up the passing game and the explosive plays. That should be the game plan for Georgia Tech tonight.
Georgia Tech's defense vs Georgia's offense
Carson Beck has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season
This is the part of the game where the mismatch is the greatest. Georgia has one of the best offenses in the country and Georgia Tech has one of the worst defenses in the country. There are not a lot of scenarios where I picture Georgia Tech being able to stop the Bulldogs and they are going to have to force some turnovers to stay in this game.
Georgia is second in the SEC in yards per game (501.8), 2nd in passing yards per game (323.3), 5th in rushing yards per game (178.6), 3rd in offensive success rate, 3rd in passing success rate, and 9th in rushing success rate.
On the other side of the ball, it has been a struggle for Georgia Tech on defense, but they have done a pretty good job of creating turnovers.
The Yellow Jackets are last in the ACC in yards per game allowed, 8th in passing defense, last in rushing yards allowed, 100th in passing success rate allowed, and 124th in rushing success rate allowed.
It is not easy to take over for a quarterback who won two national championships and is a legend. Stetson Bennett set the bar pretty high for quarterbacks at Georgia, but it is hard to not look at what Carson Beck is doing right now and not be impressed.
Beck is 7th nationally with 3, 320 yards and has a 72.9% completion percentage to go along with 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He had to deal with his top target (Brock Bowers) missing time, but that did not stop Beck and this offense.
Key acknowledged that Georgia has playmakers all over their offense and made sure to mention how well Beck is playing:
"I am usually pretty quick-witted... put three guys on him, I don't know. Put one person on him and cross your fingers and hope things don't happen. We will put a game plan together, they have a lot of explosive players on their offense, they have a quarterback that is doing a heck of a job this season, playing as good as anyone in the country right now. They generate explosives with a lot of different players, he is not just the only one. I think they have 40+ explosive plays over 20 yards this year, 48 if I am not mistaken in the passing game.
They have two running backs that are very quick and efficient runners, running backs that can take it the distance at any time, they can condense sets and be able to play bully ball and able to spread you out and go different motions and unbalanced and they have a really good play-action game so if you just focus on one person, you are really going to leave yourself open all over so it will be a big challenge for us this week."
Brock Bowers is a player to watch tonight
Georgia Tech has faced some good quarterbacks this year like North Carolina's Drake Maye, Louisville's Jack Plummer, and Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart, but Beck is playing on a different level right now. The Yellow Jackets are going to need to force Beck to make mistakes and find a way to put pressure on him. No team has been able to do that this season, but Georgia Tech in certain games has been able to. Against Miami and Wake Forest, the Yellow Jackets forced multiple turnovers and it was the main reason they won. Now, Georgia is much better than those teams, but it is still a top priority for this defense.
Finding ways to get pressure on Beck and force turnovers is what this defense has to do. Let's see what Kevin Sherrer can cook up on that side of the ball.
X-Factors
Being able to run the ball successfully, creating turnovers, the offensive line playing well, and Haynes King not turning the ball over are the big keys to the game. If Tech can run the ball with success, that could open up the explosive passing game down the field. I don't think the defense will get many stops against Georgia's offense, but if they can get turnovers and run the ball well, the can control the tempo of the game and slow things down.
Score Prediction
Key has pulled big upsets before and he got his team to play Georgia tough for 2 1/2 quarters last season and I think this Georgia Tech team is much better than last year's.
I just don't think the Yellow Jackets are ready yet.
I see this game playing out similarly to the Clemson game. The Bulldogs will control the line of scrimmage and get a big lead and then the Yellow Jackets will close the gap in garbage time. Key has done a wonderful job with this team this season, but Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs continue their winning streak tonight.
Final Score: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 24
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