Georgia Tech vs North Carolina: Game Preview, Matchup Breakdown, and Final Score Prediction

Will Georgia Tech beat North Carolina this weekend in Chapel Hill?

Oct 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton (28) is tackled by Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets linebacker Paul Moala (13) and linebacker Trenilyas Tatum (7) in the second half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

For the past three seasons, Georgia Tech has been a double-digit underdog vs a ranked North Carolina team and they have won each game outright. Now, the roles are reversed somewhat.

Georgia Tech might not be ranked heading into their matchup against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, but they are a small road favorite. Brent Key's team comes into the game 4-2 after a win vs Duke and tye could move to 5-2 with a win, which would be their best start through seven games since the 2014 season, which ended with Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.

North Carolina on the other hand comes into this game on a three game losing streak. They started the year 3-0 but have lost to James Madison, Duke, and Pitt since. This feels like a bit of a gut check for them at home on Saturday.

The biggest non-football storyline in this game of course has to do with former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins being the defensive coordinator for the Tar Heels. Both Collins and Key have downplayed it this week when asked about it.

When speaking with the media earlier this week, Key talked about facing Collins for the first time:

"Yeah, I mean I wish nothing but the best for Geoff in the future except for this Saturday. Yeah, so good football coach, he's on the staff with good football coaches. It's not been the first time we've gone up against someone that I've worked with before."

While facing his former team is certainly a storyline, Collins maintained in his press conference yesterday that the focus this week is not about him:

"You guys like to hear about the team meetings that we have and the unit meetings and the big thing with the defense last night is that this is not about me. I do have deep, personal relationships with players on the team, I am very proud of them, when I see them play well, I am excited for them because I care about them and I care about their families, but this week is about being the best defense that we can be, coach our guys to play at a high level, they (Georgia Tech) have a lot of really good weapons, they are doing a really good job with the offense and we have a complete focus on what we have to do to play really well on Saturday, schematically, motivationally, all of those kinds of things, but this week is not about me at all."

Collins was then asked about his relationship with Key, for which he gave a very short answer:

"We have been friends for a very long time"

So how do these two teams matchup? Let's break the game down.

Georgia Tech Offense vs North Carolina Defense

This is of course the matchup that most want to see. UNC's defense had a horrific performance against James Madison earlier in the year, giving up 70 points, and the passing defense is where they struggle most. North Carolina has given up at least 380 yards passing in two of their three losses in this current losing streak and they will be trying to stop one of the better quarterbacks and receiving duos in the ACC.

Coming into the game, Georgia Tech ranks 7th in the ACC in yards per game, 7th in passing yards per game, 8th in rushing yards per game, and 8th in points per game. They are second in the nation in sacks allowed.

North Carolina's defense comes into this game ranking 15th in the ACC in yards allowed per game, 14th in passing yards allowed per game (112th in the country), 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (52nd in the country), and 15th in points per game allowed (96th).

Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King has thrown for 1,441 yards this season with eight touchdowns and one interception. He also leads the ACC in completion percentage at 74% and is one of the most effective runners at the quarterback position. He has the potential to have a great day vs the Tar Heels defense if Georgia Tech wants to throw it downfield.

Rutherford (37 catches, 474 yards, and two touchdowns) and Eric Singleton Jr (380 yards and two touchdowns) are one of the best receiving duos in the ACC and with North Carolina's problems in the secondary, I can see one or both of those guys having a big day.

The Yellow Jackets offensive line has only allowed one sack, but if there is one thing that North Carolina does well on the defensive side of the ball, it is get after the quarterback. The Tar Heels are one of the top teams in the ACC in getting pressure on the quarterback and they have 15 sacks this season. Jahvaree Ritzie (5 sacks, 3rd in the ACC), Amare Campbell (3 sacks), Kevin Hester (2 sacks), and Desmond Evans (2 sacks) are going to be tough to block, but this is one of the best offensive lines in the ACC and has done a great job at protecting the quarterback.

One of the most encouraging things to come out of last week's win vs Duke was that Georgia Tech ran the ball much better than they had been over the past few weeks. Jamal Haynes had 128 yards on 19 carries, averaging 6.7 yards per carry and Chad Alexander had 10 carries for 59 yards. The team finished with 245 yards rushing and the only thing you could really nitpick with the run game is that the QB run game was not very efficient.

If Georgia Tech does not make mistakes (think Louisville game) then I think there are points to be had against North Carolina's defense.

Georgia Tech's Defense vs North Carolina's Offense

The biggest matchup in the game comes here. The Yellow Jackets rush defense vs North Carolina's running game might be what decides the game.

Coming into this game, North Carolina's offense ranks 9th in the ACC in passing offense, 2nd in the ACC in rushing offense (31st in the country), 7th in the ACC in points per game, and 6th in total offense (30th in the country).

Georgia Tech's defense ranks 3rd in the ACC in yards per game allowed, 8th in points per game allowed, 1st in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense. They are however just 116th in the country in sacks, but they are going agianst an offensive line that has allowed pressure on the quarterback this year.

This weekend though, this run defense is going to be put to the test against North Carolina.

If you wanted to poke holes in Georgia Tech's rush defense, you can point to the opponents that they have faced this season. Louisville is the top ranked rushing offense the Yellow Jackets have faced, but they rank only 61st in the country in rushing offense. Georgia State (106), Duke (112), Syracuse (113), and Florida State (132) all rank outside of the top 100 rushing offenses in the country. North Carolina ranks No. 31 in the country and No.2 in the ACC in rushing offense and they have the nation's third leading rusher.

Omarion Hampton is a future NFL starter at running back and has 764 yards in six games this season. He is averaging nearly six yards per carry and has only one game this year in which he did not total 100 yards. Earlier this week, Key highlighted Hampton as a great player in this offense, but also thinks there is more to this North Carolina offense than just Hampton:

"Yeah you know they're you hear about about the running back all the time time, and rightfully so. He's a good, good, good football player, a really good player. But when you look at their offense, they're pretty balanced. I think they're 55 -45 somewhere in there as far as run past. So it's not like they're lining up and running 65 -70 % of the time, you can just load the box. I mean they are gonna add in the RPOs and the And then they take their shots down the field, which, you know, their last game, they were trying to get a few more of those shots down the field vertically. So, you know, it's a challenge. We've got to be able to make sure we read our keys, we get aligned with the tempo, reading our keys. That's going to be big, especially at the second and third level, you know, for the run pass. And then we've got to be able to control the front, you know, control the game up front and not to, obviously, D -Lines is the one position that didn't have conflict run pass he played the game, so we've got to be sharp with our keys and our read"

This defensive line for Georgia Tech has been huge in stopping the run. Jordan van den Berg is starting to play really well and Zeek Biggers, Makius Scott, Thomas Gore, and Jason Moore give them a solid rotation. Linebackers Kyle Efford and Trenilyas Tatum are going to be huge in stopping Hampton as well. North Carolina is 76th in the country in sacks given up so this could be a big game for Romello Height, Kevin Harris, and the other pass rushers for Georgia Tech.

The secondary for Georgia Tech has been the weak point of the defense this season, but they played against Duke and North Carolina's passing game is not the best one they have faced this season. Ahmari Harvey, Warren Burrell, Taye Seymore (who has really emerged this season), LaMiles Brooks, and Clayton Powell-Lee will look to continue their success from last week.

The passing game from North Carolina is spearheaded by quarterback Jacolby Criswell. Criswell has thrown for 1,158 yards this season as well as seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He has thrown for at least 250 yards in each of his last three starts, but has struggled with accuracy in the last two games, not completing more than 53% of his passes in either game vs Duke or Pitt.

Criswell's favorite targets this season have been wide receiver JJ Jones (18 catches for 300 yards and one touchdown) and tight end Bryson Nesbit (21 catches for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns). Former Georgia Tech wide receiver Nate McCollum, Kobe Paysour, and tight end John Copenhaver are other guys to know. This is the best tight end duo that Georgia Tech has seen this season and I am interested to see how they matchup.

X Factors

I will once again go back to the matchup against North Carolina's rushing offense and stopping Omarion Hampton. If Georgia Tech can limit him, they can force North Carolina into passing situations, where they are not as good. Winning early downs on defense will be crucial because North Carolina is not a good 3rd/4th down team.

Protecting Haynes King is the X-factor for the offense. North Carolina has been good at disrupting things for the opposing offense this year with 15 sacks, but they have struggled at most other things on defense. Protect King from the front four and I think a big day is in store.

Prediction

After the James Madison game, I wondered if North Carolina would not continue to play hard this season, but to their credit, they have done so in their last two games against Duke and Pitt and I don't think they are going to roll over against Georgia Tech. Still, I like the Yellow Jackets in this matchup and think they pick up the road win.

Final Score: Georgia Tech 38, UNC 24