Georgia Tech vs North Carolina: Matchup Breakdown and Prediction

Georgia Tech is hoping to pull another upset over North Carolina tonight at 8:00 on the ACC Network

Georgia Tech and North Carolina will meet for the 57th time tonight and it will be under the lights at Bobby Dodd Stadium. 

Both the Yellow Jackets and the Tar Heels are coming off of tough losses to ACC opponents and are hoping that they can use this game to get right. Georgia Tech plays well as an underdog under Brent Key and they have historically played well against North Carolina in Atlanta. 

So who wins tonight and why? Let's break down this matchup and make a prediction. 

Georgia Tech's offense vs North Carolina's defense

Georgia Tech has shown an ability to be able to score points and throw the ball around, but they have started turning the ball over more and more over the last three games. Haynes King has thrown seven interceptions in the last three games and he is facing a North Carolina defense that is 14th in the nation in takeaways. 

The Yellow Jackets are 5th in the ACC in yards per game (434.1), 5th in passing yards per game (265.0), 7th in rushing yards per game (169.1), and 6th in scoring offense, averaging 29.7 PPG. Georgia Tech is 70th in offensive success rate, 62nd in passing success rate, and 76th in rushing success rate.

King is the guy that makes the engine go on offense. He is 3rd in the ACC in passing yards and has 17 touchdowns and nine total interceptions while completing 59% of his passes. King had a big day running the ball against Boston College last week and he might need to use that part of his game on Saturday.

Eric Singleton Jr did not play last week due to illness and Chase Lane did not see much action after returning from injury. Singleton is still the leading receiver for the Yellow Jackets in terms of yards, but Malik Rutherford, Christian Leary, and Dominick Blaylock have picked up the slack.

Running back Jamal Haynes is 8th in the ACC in rushing yards with 465 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

The offensive line has done a good job in pass protection, as Tech is 12th in the nation in sacks allowed, but the run blocking leaves a lot to be desired and the run game as a whole needs to get going this week. 

North Carolina's defense has improved year-over-year, but it is not a unit to be feared. The Tar Heels are 8th in the ACC in rushing yards allowed per game, 13th in passing yards allowed, and 8th in points per game allowed. They are 62nd in defensive success rate, 38th in passing success rate allowed, and 92nd in rushing success rate allowed.

North Carolina has some studs on the defensive side though. Linebacker Cedric Gray is second in the ACC in tackles with 70, Kaimon Rucker leads the ACC in sacks with 7.5, and Alijah Huzzie is tied for the ACC lead in interceptions with three.

I think that Georgia Tech can have success against North Carolina's defense if they don't turn the ball over. That has been the Achilles hill of the offense in recent weeks and if Haynes King can't protect the football, North Carolina will score.

Virginia's offense was able to move the ball effectively against this Tar Heels defense and I think Georgia Tech can too if they take care of the ball. 

Georgia Tech's defense vs North Carolina's offense 

North Carolina wide receiver Tez Walker catches a touchdown vs Miami / Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

This is the matchup that should be worrisome for Georgia Tech fans. North Carolina's offense is one of the best in the country and the same can't be said about Georgia Tech's defense. The Yellow Jackets are going to need a performance like they did against Wake Forest and Miami, where they forced at least four turnovers and got stops in the red zone. 

Everyone who watches college football closely enough has heard about how talented quarterback Drake Maye is. He is a likely top pick in next year's NFL Draft and is currently the ACC's leading passer with 2,249, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He is completing 65.4% of his passes as well. Last season, Georgia Tech did as good of a job as anyone of limiting him, holding him to a season-low in passing yards, but Maye is still very good.

 This is a deep group of receivers for North Carolina. Tez Walker made his much-anticipated debut against Syracuse and he has exploded for big games against Miami and Virginia since. In just a short amount of time, Walker has 23 catches for 321 yards and four touchdowns. He is the scariest player outside of Maye on this offense and will be a tough cover on Saturday night. Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum is having a solid season as well, catching 33 passes for 385 yards and one touchdown. J.J. Jones is another guy to watch.

North Carolina has the leading passer in the ACC and the leading rusher. Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton is a physical runner and leads the conference with 770 yards, averaging close to six yards per carry to go along with eight touchdowns. He could be a major difference-maker against what has been a horrible Georgia Tech rush defense.

North Carolina has the No. 1 offense in the ACC in terms of yards per game (499.7), the No. 1 passing offense (321.3 YPG), and the No. 4 rushing offense in the ACC (178.4 YPG). They are ninth in offensive SP+, 21st in offensive success rate (how good you are on a down-to-down basis), 35th in passing success rate, and 24th in rushing success rate. They are a tough matchup for any defense, let alone one that is last in the ACC in multiple categories.

If there is one area where North Carolina is not strong on the offensive end, it is the offensive line. They are 94th in the country in sacks allowed, having given up 18 this season.

It is hard to find a spot where the Georgia Tech defense matches up well with the Tar Heels offense. The Yellow Jackets are 12th in the ACC in scoring defense (giving up 30.3 PPG), dead last in rushing defense in the conference (227.7 YPG), and 10th in the ACC in passing yards allowed per game (225 YPG). They are last in the ACC in yards given up (452.7 YPG). They are 103rd in sacks.

The advanced stats look even worse. Georgia Tech is 122nd in defensive success rate, 88th in passing success rate allowed, and 127th in rushing success rate allowed. The best chance that Georgia Tech has on defense is being able to force three turnovers (like they did against Wake Forest and Miami) and force field goals in the red zone. The defensive line needs to find a way to get pressure on Maye so he does not get comfortable and in a rhythm. 

X-Factors

Georgia Tech defenders tackle Miami running back Don Chaney Jr / Nathaniel Caudell

I think there are three things Georgia Tech has to do if they want a shot at pulling this off. 1) They have to win the turnover battle. North Carolina is going to score points, but if Georgia Tech can steal some possessions and take care of the ball on offense, they can win this game. 2) They have to be able to run the ball. I think King has forced some throws downfield into double coverage because the passing game has been the only thing working recently. The Yellow Jackets have been unable to run the ball for the past three games and that has hurt their offense. 3) They have to get stops in the red zone. If they can hold North Carolina to field goal attempts and keep them out of the red zone, their defense will have a chance. 

Player to watch

I think Haynes King is the guy to watch tonight. There are a lot of things that have to go right for Georgia Tech to win this game, but if he can't play well today and keeps turning the ball over, this won't be much of a game. King has shown the ability to move the offense down the field when he is taking care of the ball. 

Prediction

It would be foolish to count Georgia Tech out of this game as an underdog with Brent Key as the head coach, but I think North Carolina has too much offense for them to win this game. If the Tar Heels take care of the ball, they will likely score at will tonight and I don't know if Georgia Tech can keep up. I have been wrong before, but I don't think Georgia Tech will win this game. 

Final Score: North Carolina 41, Georgia Tech 30

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