Georgia Tech vs UCF: Matchup Breakdown and Score Prediction For Tonight's Gasparilla Bowl

Can Georgia Tech finish off the 2023 season with a win over UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl?

College Football Bowl Season rolls on tonight in Tampa Bay where Georgia Tech faces UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. This is the first bowl game since 2018 for the Yellow Jackets and this is actually the third time in the last four seasons that Georgia Tech and UCF are going to play each other. These are two teams that actually have some interesting history between them. 

There are going to be plenty of headlines in this game.

The two programs met last season and that loss would be the final game that Geoff Collins would coach at Georgia Tech. UCF went 6-6 in their first season in the Big 12 but did have some signature wins, like a 45-3 blowout over Oklahoma State.

Brent Key coached at UCF from 2005 to 2015 before becoming the offensive line coach at Alabama and later, Georgia Tech. Former Georgia Tech head coach George O'Leary was also the head coach of the Knights.

These two teams also go head-to-head with each other a fair amount in recruiting as well.

So which team will end their season with a win tonight? Let's break down the game and make a prediction. 

Game Preview

Ethan Mackenny lines up at tackle / Petre Thomas - USA Today

When you take a look at these teams, there are a lot of similarities. Both have high-powered offenses, both struggle to stop the run on defense, and both have dynamic duel-threat quarterbacks. 

Georgia Tech comes into the game with the best rushing attack in the ACC (No. 15 nationally) and the running game has really come on since their upset win over North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets had over 300 yards in that game and outside of a poor game against Clemson, they have been able to run the ball on everyone, including Georgia. 

Jamal Haynes is the headliner at running back when it comes to the ground game. He is the fifth leading rusher in the ACC this season and 4th among running backs. He is a dynamic playmaker that can take any carry the distance and he and Dontae Smith make up a good pairing on the ground. 

The running backs are not the only threat when running the ball though. Quarterback Haynes King is one of the best-running threats at the quarterback position. He is the second-leading rusher on Georgia Tech with 648 yards and nine touchdowns. He does a good job on improvised runs as well as designed runs and I think you will see a healthy dose of both tonight from him. 

Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King / Nathaniel Caudell

King is the leader in touchdown passes in the ACC and needs 330 yards passing to set the Georgia Tech single-season record for Georgia Tech and 391 yards total yards of offense for a new Georgia Tech record. King leads an offense that is 30th nationally in total offense and 42nd in scoring offense. 

He will also have his full allotment of receivers to throw to tonight. True freshman Eric Singleton Jr leads with 706 yards and six touchdowns, but guys like Malik Rutherford, Christian Leary, and Dominick Blaylock are also threats on the outside. 

The offensive line for Georgia Tech is one of the most improved in the country. After struggling in 2022, the offensive line is 19th in sacks allowed and they lead the way for the top rushing attack in the ACC. 

Georgia Tech is 45th in overall success rate, 27th in rushing success rate, and 73rd in passing success rate. I think the key to tonight's game on offense is staying ahead of the chains and not getting in third and long situations. King does lead the ACC in interceptions and in games against Bowling Green, Boston College, and Miami, he had some turnover-prone games because of the lack of success in the running game. UCF has a poor run defense and Georgia Tech should be able to have plenty of success, but King must avoid the mistakes in obvious passing situations. 

Speaking of the UCF defense, they are 1st in the Big 12 in passing defense, but dead last in rushing defense. They are 120th overall in defensive success rate, 96th in passing success rate allowed, and 120th in rushing success rate. UCF is going to be missing their top playmaker in the secondary. Corey Thornton transferred to Louisville and he had three interceptions for the Knights this year. Georgia Tech should be able to have success against this defense but must avoid turnovers and stay ahead of the chains. 

Connor Scaglione (#65) and Weston Franklin (#72) drop back into pass protection against Wake Forest / Georgia Tech Athletics

Like Georgia Tech, UCF has a dynamic offense centered around its running game. The Knights are 2nd in the Big 12 in total offense, 6th in passing, and 2nd in rushing, averaging 232 yards on the ground. Quarterback John Rhys-Plumlee is one of the most dynamic athletes at the position when healthy and Georgia Tech is going to have to contain him on defense. 

UCF has the 3rd leading rusher in the Big 12 in RJ Harvey, who had 1,296 yards on the ground this year and a whopping 16 touchdowns. The Knights have a pair of dynamic receivers on the outside as well. Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson both had close to 1,000 yards this season and were the 2nd and 4th leading receivers in the BIg 12. The Yellow Jackets defense is going to have a big chore with those guys on the outside. 

In terms of success rate numbers, they are pretty solid for UCF. They are 30th in offensive success rate, 43rd in passing success rate, and 24th in rushing success rate. Their ground game is the most dangerous part of the offense, but they can air it out with guys like Baker and Hudson on the outside. 

Georgia Tech is going to be down a pair of defenders tonight. Kyle Kennard (South Carolina) and Kenan Johnson (Utah) both entered the transfer portal and both played plenty of snaps. Kennard was the best pass rusher on the team and Johnson was the highest-graded defender on the team per PFF (Pro Football Focus). 

It is not a pretty picture for Georgia Tech on defense. They are 129th in success rate allowed, 113th in passing success rate allowed, and 128th in rushing success rate allowed. They are going to have to force turnovers and obvious passing situations tonight. Rhys-Plumlee is a far better runner of the football than a thrower and Georgia Tech is going to need to have success in the early downs to put them in third and long situations. 

How to Watch Georgia Tech vs UCF

Who: Georgia Tech vs UCF

When: 6:30 p.m., Friday Dec. 22nd

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: FuboTV (Start your free trial)

Betting odds per Caesars Sportsbook: UCF -5; Over/under 67.0; Moneyline: UCF - 205, Georgia Tech +170

RADIO: Georgia Tech Sports Network

• Play-by-Play: Andy Demetra

• Analyst: Joe Hamilton

• Sideline Reporter: Chris Mooneyham

• In Atlanta: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Across Georgia: Visit RamblinWreck.com for station affiliate list

• Satellite: SiriusXM 371

• Mobile Apps: GT Yellow Jackets, 680 The Fan, SiriusXM, TuneIn

• Online: RamblinWreck.com, 680TheFan.com

Prediction

Will Georgia Tech beat UCF tonight in the Gasparilla Bowl? / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

In Bowl games, motivation plays a big factor. You see it every year. One team wants to be there more than the other for whatever reason and that propels the other team to victory. Tonight, you have two evenly matched teams and I think a motivation factor could be what tips the scale in this one. 

Having not played in a bowl game since 2018, I think Georgia Tech is going to want to cap its season off with a win and show that this program is trending in the right direction under Key. Is there a chance that GT is just happy to be at the bowl game and does not come out fired up and ready to play? Sure. Those types of factors make bowl games unpredictable and hard to pick for even the smartest college football analysts. 

It is not that I think UCF won't be motivated to be there, just that a win might mean more for this Georgia Tech program. On top of that, Key has a way of having his team play well as an underdog. Expect a shootout and take the over in this game, as well as Georgia Tech winning the game outright. 

Final Score: Georgia Tech 38, UCF 34

WATCH: Georgia Tech Releases Hype Video for Tonight's Bowl Game vs UCF

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