How can Georgia Tech upset Louisville?

Georgia Tech is a touchdown underdog going into the first game

Jackson Caudell | Aug 31, 2023

How can Georgia Tech upset Louisville? /

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Brent Key is used to coaching Georgia Tech and being an underdog. As the interim head coach last season, Key and the Yellow Jackets were only favored once (against Virginia) and an underdog in the other seven games. Wins against Duke, Pitt, and North Carolina showed that Key can coach a team to an outright win as an underdog, and in Friday night's season opener against Louisville, Key, and his team are going to be 7.5 point underdogs.

The opponent has been undergoing change this offseason as well. Like Key, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm is coming back to coach his alma mater and try to win at the expected levels. When at Purdue, Brohm led them to a Big Ten title game appearance in 2022 and the Boilermakers consistently had one of the top offenses in the conference. The Cardinals brought in one of the top transfer portal classes over the offseason and are being viewed as a dark horse to potentially make the ACC title game in Brohm's first season.

So how can Georgia Tech pull off another upset under Key? Let's break it down.

1. Get pressure on the quarterback

Georgia Tech defensive end Kyle Kennard — Can Georgia Tech disrupt the Louisville offense? / Georgia Tech Athletics

This is an area of concern for me about Georgia Tech heading into the season. The Yellow Jackets lost Keion White to the NFL, but an underrated part of Georgia Tech's ability to get pressure on the quarterback last season was Charlie Thomas. Thomas was utilized well as a blitzer during his career on The Flats, but he is no longer there.

Louisville is going to be led by transfer quarterback Jack Plummer, who has experience in Brohm's system as a former Purdue quarterback before he transferred to Cal. Plummer does not turn the ball over much and is a good decision-maker and Brohm trusts him.

I think Georgia Tech is going to have to get consistent pressure on Plummer. The Yellow Jackets coaches have talked about how they like the depth on the defensive line and I think the interior is a strength, but the pass rush is unproven. Guys like Sylvain Yondjouen, Kyle Kennard, Noah Collins, and others are going to have to make their presence known and knock Plummer off his spots and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.

2. Win the turnover battle

This is a cliche in college football, but to pull off an upset, you almost have to win the turnover battle. Georgia Tech was one of the best teams in the nation in terms of turnover margin last season, ranking 6th with a +11 margin. In two of the four wins under Key in 2022, Georgia Tech won the turnover battle and I think they are going to need to force multiple in tomorrow's game while keeping their own to a minimum. Georgia Tech has a talented secondary, led by safety LaMiles Brooks, and they will need to help take the ball away from the Cardinal's offense.

Georgia Tech has to make sure that they don't give Louisville extra possessions either. Haynes King is going to be making his first start for the Yellow Jacket tomorrow night and is playing with a new group of receivers and is behind an offensive line that was shaky last season. There could be chemistry issues with the new pass catchers right away and if the offensive line has not taken a leap, it could make life difficult on the new Yellow Jackets quarterback and force some bad decisions.

3. Create explosive plays

Georgia Tech was not a good offensive team last year, especially when it came to creating explosive plays. The Yellow Jackets ranked 124th in scoring offense, 90th in rushing, and 108th in passing. The Yellow Jackets were 121st in offensive EPA (expected points added) and 119th in success rate.

To improve those numbers, head coach Brent Key went out and got a new offensive staff, notably offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. Faulkner is going to be calling plays for the Yellow Jackets and looking to make this team more explosive and efficient. Creating big plays and getting the ball in the hands of the playmakers is something this staff has been working on since spring and tomorrow is going to be the first test to see the progress.

Louisville has a talented secondary but lost one of their starting safeties due to injury in preseason camp. They still have cornerback Jarvis Brownlee, but I think Faulkner is going to test the secondary with guys like Malik Rutherford, D.J. Moore, and Dominick Blaylock. Dontae Smith and former Louisville running back Trey Cooley have explosive potential out of the backfield as well.

Georgia Tech can be methodical and wants to keep the ball away from the Cardinals, but I think a few explosive plays are going to be needed to emerge victorious on Friday night.

4. Win on the line of scrimmage

It is another cliche in football, but it is true. Games are usually won or lost on the line of scrimmage and Key wants his team to be able to do just that.

But will they?

I have already talked about the defensive line for the Yellow Jackets and they are going to be a big factor in creating pressure on Plummer. The offensive line however is going to have to show that they have made progress from last season.

The Yellow Jackets were 117th in sacks allowed and 127th in tackles for loss allowed, as well as having the running game rank among the bottom half of the ACC and the country. The good news for Georgia Tech is that most of the snaps from last season are back and the Yellow Jackets were very young last season on the line. The Cardinals were one of the top teams a year ago in terms of getting pressure on the quarterback and creating negative plays, but they lost a lot of production and there will be some new faces along the Cardinal's front seven. Whoever wins that battle can change the outcome of the game.

Betting Odds

Betting odds per Si Sportsbook: Louisville -7.5; Over/under 49.5; Moneyline: Louisville -300, Georgia Tech +220

1. Get pressure on the quarterback

2. Win the turnover battle

3. Create explosive plays

4. Win on the line of scrimmage

Betting Odds

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