Mapping Out Georgia Tech's Path To The ACC Championship Game in 2024

Could Georgia Tech Make a Surprise Run to the ACC Title Game in 2024?

Nov 4, 2023; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) runs with the ball past Virginia Cavaliers defensive tackle Jason Hammond (91) during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports / Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

I would bet that most don't realize that if Georgia Tech had not blown a double-digit lead against Louisville in the season opener, the Yellow Jackets could have made the ACC Championship.

Yeah, that almost happened. There would have been a three-way tie for second place between Louisville, Georgia Tech, and NC State. The Yellow Jackets finished in 4th place in the ACC behind Florida State, Louisville, and NC State. A couple of games go the Yellow Jackets way (Boston College) and they would have faced the Seminoles in Charlotte for a shot at the ACC crown.

I just wanted to put that out there before I dived deeper into talking about Georgia Tech can make this year's game.

I think it would be on a similar path as last year's team. Georgia Tech went 6-6 in the regular season, but three of those losses were in the non-conference slate, with losses coming to Georiga, Ole Miss, and Bowling Green. They were 5-3 in ACC play, almost getting them into second place. The only ACC game that ended up being non-competitive was the game against Clemson.

I am sure that you have heard about Georgia Tech's schedule going into the 2024 season. 247Sports Analyst Brad Crawford ranked the Yellow Jackets 2024 schedule as the 6th toughest schedule in the country:

"One of only two ACC teams in our toughest schedules rankings, Georgia Tech has a difficult road ahead, especially if November when the Yellow Jackets play Miami, NC State and Georgia to end it. Brent Key must have this team ready to go every week, or else getting to bowl eligibility will be a challenge."

Seven of Georgia Tech's opponents appeared in the 247Sports post-spring top 25. 11 of Georgia Tech's 12 opponents played in bowl games last season. With a schedule that is this tough, how can Georgia Tech possibly get in the ACC Championship?

Well, as we saw last year, they are probably going to need to go 6-2 in the conference and I do think that is possible. The Yellow Jackets could have losses to Notre Dame and Georgia and it won't mean anything when it comes to the ACC title race. I don't think there are any ACC games on the Yellow Jackets schedule that they can't win either. The opening game against Florida State is going to be difficult, but Georgia Tech can win that game. Notre Dame and Georgia are likely going to be three-touchdown favorites over Georgia Tech, but there is not an ACC game where they will be that big of an underdog.

Because they are facing so many of the ACC's best teams, they won't have much margin for error. If you lose the game to Florida State, you lose the tiebreaker and FSU has one of the easier schedules in the ACC and I don't see many losses on the schedule for them. Same thing goes to Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech. At worst, Georgia Tech is going to have to go 6-2 in ACC play if they want to win the league.

What is the most likely way they get to 6-2? On paper, Florida State and Miami are probably the two best teams that Georgia Tech will play in the conference. They both are tied for the highest win total in the ACC at 9.5 and are expected to contend for the conference title. Can the Yellow Jackets get wins vs Syracuse, Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and NC State? It won't be easy but those are winnable games and something that Brent Key has shown in his time as the head coach and before as the interim coach. He got wins against Miami and North Carolina as a big underdog last season and almost had a win against Louisville. Georgia Tech will be underdogs in games vs Florida State, Miami, Louisville, NC State and North Carolina. They might be an underdog vs Syracuse due to it being a road game, but it won't be a large spread.

There is a chance that some of these teams disappoint and a few of them will. Virginia Tech has a lot of hype around them heading into the season, but they did not score any impressive wins last year. The Hokies return a lot of production from last year's team, but could end up not living up to the hype. I don't have to tell anyone that follows ACC Football that Miami and NC State generally disappoint when they have high expectations. NC State can't seem to get over the 10-win mark and drops a couple of games each year that they shouldn't. Dave Doeren has a great program, but there is a reason they have never been to the ACC Title game, despite having years where they looked like they were capable of doing that.

Miami arguably has the best roster in the ACC. They have brought in back-to-back top ten recruiting classes as well as having one of the top transfer portal classes in the country this offseason. The question is if Mario Cristobal can get the most out of this talent and finally win big at Miami. Until he proves he can, there is always going to be doubt.

Louisville might have a really good defense, but they lost some of their best incoming transfers and is Tyler Shough an upgrade over Jake Plummer? Georgia Tech let the Cardinals off the hook last year, but winning on the road will be tough. Duke, North Carolina, and Syracuse are all winnable games.

If Georgia Tech can improve its defense and the offense does not have a drop off, this team should be better. If some of the teams on their schedule disappoint, Georgia Tech could take advantage and get to 6-2 or better in the ACC. It is possible that Georgia Tech could get to Charlotte with an 8-4 record (two ACC losses + losses to Notre Dame and Georgia), after all they almost got there with a 6-6 record last season.

I am not picking Georgia Tech to get to the ACC Championship game, but there is a path for it to happen. This team is not getting enough love leading up to the season, with most just focusing on the schedule. If the defense makes enough of a jump and the turnovers are cut down, a trip to Charlotte can't be completely ruled out.