SP+ Predicts Final Score Of Georgia Tech-Georgia Matchup

Can Georgia Tech find a way to upset Georgia this weekend?

Nov 25, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) runs for a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs in the first quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

One of the biggest games of the weekend will be on Black Friday between Georgia Tech and Georgia. the Yellow Jackets are hoping to finish the regular season 7-4 and earn their first win over the Bulldogs since 2016 while Kirby Smart's team is hoping to avoid a third loss this season ahead of their SEC Championship game next Saturday. Under Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have played the Bulldogs close in two games, but unable to come up with a win. The Bulldogs opened as big favorites in the betting market on Sunday and SP+ is predicting this game to be lopsided as well. SP+ is giving Georgia a 95% chance to win the game on Friday night and predicts the final score to be 41-15

WEEK 14 SP+ PICKS

Texas 29, A&M 23
UGA 41, Ga Tech 15
Clemson 27, SC 26
Ohio St 36, Mich 10
Miami 41, 'Cuse 23
ND 32, USC 21
Bama 34, Auburn 18
Buffs 38, Pokes 23
Tulane 33, Memphis 27

Lots of BIG disagreements with the spread, which is ... odd.https://t.co/0IuE15fpus pic.twitter.com/XinpDuCrEL

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 24, 2024

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Georgia Tech played Georgia almost as well as anyone did last year. Georgia won 31-23, but the Yellow Jackets were an onside kick away from getting the ball back and having a chance to tie the game up. In 2022, Key had his alma mater within six points of the No. 1 Bulldogs (13-7) in the middle of the third quarter before Georgia finally pulled away. In each of the past two seasons, Key has had this team playing better against the Bulldogs since the last time the Yellow Jackets won in 2016. In 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021, Georgia handled the Yellow Jackets with ease, but they have had to fight for the past two seasons to put Georgia Tech away. Can Brent Key and his team have a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter?

The Yellow Jackets are much improved on defense as opposed to a year ago, especially in run defense. They do struggle to consistently get pressure on the quarterback though and force turnovers and that feels like a must vs Georgia. In the Kentucky game, he was limited to just 160 yards passing, he threw three interceptions in their loss to Alabama, two interceptions in the win over Mississippi State, three interceptions in the win over Florida, and he threw zero touchdowns vs Ole Miss. Georgia ranks 98th in rushing offense and the best way to slow down the Bulldogs is to get pressure on Beck and force him to make mistakes. Can Tyler Santucci come up with a gameplan to slow down Georgia's passing game? If he can, the Yellow Jackets have a chance.

Additional Links:

Georgia Tech Football: Three Biggest Storylines For Matchup With No. 6 Georgia

Georgia Tech Football: Yellow Jackets Release Depth Chart Ahead of Matchup With No. 6 Georgia

Georgia Tech Football: Brent Key Talks About What a Win Over Georgia Would Mean For Georgia Tech