SP+ Predicts Georgia Tech vs Syracuse Score

Can Georgia Tech win their sixth game of the year on Saturday when they take on Syracuse?

It might be another nailbiter at Bobby Dodd this weekend for Georgia Tech. 

The Yellow Jackets host Syracuse and both programs need another win to get to bowl eligibility. Georgia Tech has not been to a bowl game since the 2018 season and it would be a huge thing for this program to achieve this season. Head Coach Brent Key recognizes that going into this weekend: 

"So up until Sunday, I had not said the word at all, it is the same mentality each week, it is a one-game season each week and that is the mentality each week and taken, but yeah on Sunday, I brought it up, I did. This is playoff football now, this is NFL Championship, win and you're in. There is no... there is no dwelling on the last game, it is boom and you have to move on and that is the way it works and we brought it up. We talked about it. It is a big deal for these kids, a really big deal. As an alumni here, it is a really big deal for me, it is a big deal for these guys coming back here, it is a big deal for Georgia Tech, it is a big deal for the athletic association, it is a big deal for the entire Georgia Tech community so heck yeah we talked about it and these guys understand that and know it is something special they have in front of them to work and get."

Georgia Tech can clinch bowl eligibility with a win over Syracuse / Nathaniel Caudell

When the oddsmakers released the lines for the games on Saturday, Georgia Tech was listed as a six-point favorite over the Orange. Bill Connelly's SP+ has Georgia Tech winning, but at slimmer margins than what the odds suggest. 

SP+ has Georgia Tech favored by a point and winning by a score of 27-26. It gives the Yellow Jackets a 51% chance to beat Syracuse on Saturday. 

WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS

Washington 31.1, Ore St 30.9!!
Dawgs 33, Vols 22
Louisville 26, Miami 25!
Utah 28, Arizona 27!
Clemson 29, UNC 28!
K-State 34, KU 25
Mizzou 34, Florida 23
Bama 46, Mocs 5

45% of lines are w/in 2 pts of SP+, 63% w/in 3. Good times.https://t.co/fjsWyQPXfP pic.twitter.com/1FsGISvnob

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 13, 2023

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

I will update these numbers in May and August, after further transfers and roster changes have come about (and after I've had a bit more time to tinker with handling transfers and other factors). But for now, let's look at what SP+ has to say about the college football landscape.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date."

Everything From Brent Key Ahead of Matchup With Syracuse

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