Stat Preview: How Georgia Tech and North Carolina Matchup on the Stat Sheet

Can Georgia Tech pull another upset over North Carolina?

Jackson Caudell | Oct 26, 2023

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Georgia Tech has a big weekend ahead of them. It is homecoming week in Atlanta and the Yellow Jackets are welcoming in the No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels, who are fresh off of their first loss of the season last week to previously 1-5 Virginia. North Carolina is trying to stay in the thick of the ACC title race, but they are going to have to do something that they have had a hard time doing over the past several years and that is win a game in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.

When talking with the media on Monday, North Carolina head coach Mack Brown talked about the matchup on Saturday with Brent Key and the Yellow Jackets and how tough of a game it has been for his program:

"Georgia Tech is a game that has been tough for us. Atlanta has not been good to the Tar Heels, we have lost 10 of 12. Hear me now. We have lost 10 of the last 12 games in Atlanta to Georgia Tech. Everyone thinks that we have Miami's number because we have beaten them five in a row, well Georgia Tech has had North Carolina's number, and before I got here, in Atlanta so that makes this a game where people project that we lose. Period. Because we have. 10 out of 12 is pretty good percentages. They will be excited and they will feel like they are going to win because they have and we will have our hands full.

Brent Key has done a great job, he is a Georgia Tech alum and has pulled them all together and they are playing really hard and he will have them ready to go with a whole lot of energy and we have to do the same thing"

While the historical aspect of the game might be on the side of the Yellow Jackets, the stat sheet tells a different story.

Let's take a closer look at how these two teams matchup.

North Carolina wide receiver Tez Walker catching a touchdown vs Miami / Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

On offense, the Tar Heels have one of the ACC's best at nearly every position.

Everyone who watches college football closely enough has heard about how talented quarterback Drake Maye is. He is a likely top pick in next year's NFL Draft and is currently the ACC's leading passer with 2,249, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He is completing 65.4% of his passes as well. Last season, Georgia Tech did as good of a job as anyone of limiting him, holding him to a season-low in passing yards, but Maye is still very good.

This is a deep group of receivers for North Carolina. Tez Walker made his much-anticipated debut against Syracuse and he has exploded for big games against Miami and Virginia since. In just a short amount of time, Walker has 23 catches for 321 yards and four touchdowns. He is the scariest player outside of Maye on this offense and will be a tough cover on Saturday night. Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum is having a solid season as well, catching 33 passes for 385 yards and one touchdown. J.J. Jones is another guy to watch.

North Carolina has the leading passer in the ACC and the leading rusher. Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton is a physical runner and leads the conference with 770 yards, averaging close to six yards per carry to go along with eight touchdowns. He could be a major difference-maker against what has been a horrible Georgia Tech rush defense.

North Carolina has the No. 1 offense in the ACC in terms of yards per game (499.7), the No. 1 passing offense (321.3 YPG), and the No. 4 rushing offense in the ACC (178.4 YPG). They are ninth in offensive SP+, 21st in offensive success rate (how good you are on a down-to-down basis), 35th in passing success rate, and 24th in rushing success rate. They are a tough matchup for any defense, let alone one that is last in the ACC in multiple categories.

If there is one area where North Carolina is not strong on the offensive end, it is the offensive line. They are 94th in the country in sacks allowed, having given up 18 this season.

It is hard to find a spot where the Georgia Tech defense matches up well with the Tar Heels offense. The Yellow Jackets are 12th in the ACC in scoring defense (giving up 30.3 PPG), dead last in rushing defense in the conference (227.7 YPG), and 10th in the ACC in passing yards allowed per game (225 YPG). They are last in the ACC in yards given up (452.7 YPG). They are 103rd in sacks.

The advanced stats look even worse. Georgia Tech is 122nd in defensive success rate, 88th in passing success rate allowed, and 127th in rushing success rate allowed. The best chance that Georgia Tech has on defense is being able to force three turnovers (like they did against Wake Forest and Miami) and force field goals in the red zone. The defensive line needs to find a way to get pressure on Maye so he does not get comfortable and in a rhythm.

NORTH CAROLINA @ GEORGIA TECH pic.twitter.com/yhZ4PvMwRw
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 24, 2023

Let's take a closer look at the other side of the ball.

Georgia Tech has a solid offense, but it has struggled in its last three games with turnovers and getting anything going consistently. The Yellow Jackets are 5th in the ACC in yards per game (434.1), 5th in passing yards per game (265.0), 7th in rushing yards per game (169.1), and 6th in scoring offense, averaging 29.7 PPG. Georgia Tech is 70th in offensive success rate, 62nd in passing success rate, and 76th in rushing success rate.

Brent Key on the North Carolina Offense: "It goes through Drake, it's very obvious"

Quarterback Haynes King is the guy that makes the engine go and he has struggled with interceptions in the last three games, throwing seven. He is 3rd in the ACC in passing yards and has 17 touchdowns and nine total interceptions while completing 59% of his passes. King had a big day running the ball against Boston College last week and he might need to use that part of his game on Saturday.

Eric Singleton Jr did not play last week due to illness and Chase Lane did not see much action after returning from injury. Singleton is still the leading receiver for the Yellow Jackets in terms of yards, but Malik Rutherford, Christian Leary, and Dominick Blaylock have picked up the slack.

Running back Jamal Haynes is 8th in the ACC in rushing yards with 465 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

The offensive line has done a good job in pass protection, as Tech is 12th in the nation in sacks allowed, but the run blocking leaves a lot to be desired and the run game as a whole needs to get going this week.

North Carolina's defense has improved year-over-year, but it is not a unit to be feared. The Tar Heels are 8th in the ACC in rushing yards allowed per game, 13th in passing yards allowed, and 8th in points per game allowed. They are 62nd in defensive success rate, 38th in passing success rate allowed, and 92nd in rushing success rate allowed.

North Carolina has some studs on the defensive side though. Linebacker Cedric Gray is second in the ACC in tackles with 70, Kaimon Rucker leads the ACC in sacks with 7.5, and Alijah Huzzie is tied for the ACC lead in interceptions with three.

I think that Georgia Tech can have success against North Carolina's defense if they don't turn the ball over. That has been the Achilles hill of the offense in recent weeks and if Haynes King can't protect the football, North Carolina will score.

Georgia Tech vs North Carolina kicks off at 8:00 p.m. on the ACC network.

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Brent Key on the North Carolina Offense: "It goes through Drake, it's very obvious"

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