Statistical Comparison & SP+ Prediction: Virginia

This weekend's game in Charlottesville is the final road trip of the season.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Before undertaking a three game stretch at home to finish the regular season, Georgia Tech has one more business trip to take care of. Here's how the Yellow Jackets stack up statistically against the Virginia Cavaliers, as well as their chances to come out of Charlottesville with a win:

Offensive Statistics:

	Georgia Tech	Virginia
Total Offense	121st (299.5)	97th (364.3)
Passing Yards	124th (141.0)	41st (255.7)
Yards Per Completion	37th (13.12)	108th (10.75)
Rushing Yards	75th (158.5)	121st (108.7)
First Downs Gained	128th (128)	56th (189)
3rd Down Con. %	120th (32.1%)	42nd (42.5%)
4th Down Con. %	113th (36.4%)	37th (63.6%)
Red Zone Con. %	130th (55.6%)	62nd (84.4%)
Turnovers Lost	91st (14)	106th (16)
Interceptions Thrown	69th (7)	107th (10)
Fumbles Lost	84th (7)	65th (6)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	120th (7.88)	79th (6.22)
Sacks Allowed	110th (2.88)	118th (3.22)
Avg. Time of Possession	126th (26:32)	13th (33:27)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics:

	Georgia Tech	Virginia
Total Defense	74th (405.5)	17th (310.1)
Passing Yards Allowed	20th (187.9)	22nd (189.6)
Rushing Yards Allowed	121st (217.6)	28th (120.6)
3rd Down Defensive %	102nd (43.9%)	29th (33.3%)
4th Down Defensive %	124th (76.9%)	49th (45.0%)
First Downs Allowed	60th (175)	27th (149)
Red Zone Defensive %	10th (70.3%)	32nd (78.3%)
Turnovers Gained	67th (12)	96th (10)
Interceptions Caught	51st (7)	76th (6)
Fumbles Recovered	66th (5)	83rd (4)
Sacks Per Game	100th (1.63)	5th (3.78)
TFL Per Game	96th (5.3)	13th (7.9)
Defensive Touchdowns	39th (1)	15th (2)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics:

	Georgia Tech	Virginia
Net Punting	100th (36.39)	78th (37.57)
Avg. Kickoff Return	58th (21.30)	1st (31.38)
Avg. Punt Return	114th (4.64)	79th (6.50)
Blocked Kicks	49th (3)	48th (1)
Blocked Punts	4th (2)	16th (1)
Field Goal Percentage	3-6	13-17
PAT Percentage	12-12	31-32

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Yellow Jackets have only a 16.01% chance to come out of Charlottesville with a win against the Hoos. According to SP+ ratings, Virginia is the 3rd toughest team that Tech will have faced so far this season, and 4th toughest overall. Going further, it predicts Georgia Tech to finish the season with a 3-9 record, with an "expected wins" value of 2.93. Heading into the rivalry game against the Georgia Bulldogs (3.03% chance to win), the Yellow Jackets have a 68.4% chance of sporting a 3-8 record, and a 22.54% chance of being 4-7.

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