Updated ESPN FPI Predictions for the rest of Georgia Tech's schedule

Georgia Tech started the season 0-1 with a loss to Louisville in week one

Author:
Jackson Caudell
Publish date:
Sep 3, 2023 3:41 PM EDT

In this story:

Georgia Tech has started off the 2023 season 0-1 after a heartbreaking loss to Louisville last night.

The Yellow Jackets looked improved in some areas, but a second-half collapse overshadowed some of those improvements. A win here would have given Georgia Tech's chances of a bowl game a big boost, but the Yellow Jackets were unable to finish the game.

Did Georgia Tech's performance vs Louisville affect how they are looked at in the remaining games? As it turns out, it actually did, at least according to ESPN's FPI.

Last month, I previewed how ESPN's FPI looked at Georgia Tech's season and it had the Yellow Jackets going 3-9. Following Georgia Tech's better-than-expected showing in the first game, ESPN's FPI actually has Georgia Tech picking up a fourth win and their win probability increased in a few others.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Let's take a look at how the FPI odds shifted following Friday's game.

Game 2: vs. South Carolina State

ESPN FPI now gives Georgia Tech a 98.1% chance to win.

Preseason FPI Odds: 96.5%

There has been a slight uptick in Georgia Tech's chances of a win against South Carolina State, one of the easier games on the schedule for GT.

Game 3: At Ole Miss

ESPN's FPI now gives Ole Miss an 88.9% chance to win

Preseason FPI odds: 86.1%

Ole Miss has seen an increase in their odds of winning this game and that is mostly due to how strong the Rebels looked in their opening game against Mercer.

Game 4: At Wake Forest

ESPN's FPI now gives Wake Forest a 61% chance to win this game

Preseason FPI odds: 72.4%

Wake Forest is still projected to win this game, but not as much as they were to start the season. If Georgia Tech wants to get back to a bowl game, this might be a game they need to win.

Game 5: vs. Bowling Green

ESPN's FPI now gives Georgia Tech an 88% chance to win this game

Preseason FPI odds: 84%

Georgia Tech has seen a slight increase in their chance to beat Bowling Green. Like South Carolina State, this should be an easy win for the Yellow Jackets at home.

Game 6: At Miami

Georgia Tech defensive back Clayton Powell-Lee — Miami beat Georgia Tech in 2023
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN's FPI now gives Miami an 84.5% chance to win this game

Preseason FPI odds: 81.7%

Miami looked strong in their season opener and thus saw an increase in their odds of beating Georgia Tech at home

Game 7: vs. Boston College

ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 74.1% chance to win

Preseason FPI odds: 63%

Boston College looked dreadful in a home loss to Northern Illinois and Georgia Tech saw a big increase in their odds of beating the Eagles at home.

Game 8: vs. North Carolina

ESPN's FPI gives North Carolina a 73.9% chance to win

Preseason FPI odds: 71.4%

North Carolina's defense looked strong in the opening win against South Carolina. Remember this though, Georgia Tech has been a big underdog against the Tar Heels in two straight meetings and won both of them.