Updated Game-by-Game ESPN FPI Projections For Georgia Tech After Their Loss to Louisville

What does ESPN's FPI say about Georgia Tech's record after their loss to Louisville?

Sep 21, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets wide receiver Malik Rutherford (8) runs the ball against Louisville Cardinals defensive back Tahveon Nicholson (23) during the first quarter at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech played a poor game Saturday vs Louisville and it resulted in their second loss of the season. Mistakes, turnovers, and poor coaching decisions led to a loss against the Cardinals and dropped the Yellow Jackets to 3-2.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Before the season, FPI had Georgia Tech finishing 4-8. After the win against Georgia State, it had the Yellow Jackets finishing 8-4.

Did this loss change the outlook of the season on ESPN's FPI? Let's look at how FPI thinks Georgia Tech will do the rest of the way.

Game 6 vs Duke: ESPN's FPI Gives Georgia Tech a 72.4% chance to win (4-2, 2-2)

Despite the loss to Louisville and Duke starting the year 4-0, FPI likes Georgia Tech to win this game and it seems comfortably. Duke will have its biggest test of the year on Saturday when they face North Carolina and we will see how they look heading into the 8:00 game in Atlanta on Oct. 5th.

Game 7 at North Carolina: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 60.2% chance to win (5-2, 3-2)

After giving up over 50 points in the first half vs James Madison and 70 points in the entire game, the percentage chance on FPI has risen for Georgia Tech to beat North Carolina. Now, it is still a road game and will be a challenge for them, but the Tar Heels do not look very good right now.

Game 8 vs Notre Dame: ESPN's FPI Gives Notre Dame an 82.3 % chance to win (5-3, 3-2)

Despite Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois, the odds for them to win this game have gone up in FPI. This is going to be a huge challenge for Georgia Tech, as Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country and a strong running game. The passing game with former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is still a work in progress though and Georgia Tech's biggest weakness is the secondary.

Game 9 at Virginia Tech: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 52% chance to win this game (5-4, 3-3)

This result will probably surprise some considering how bad Virginia Tech looks right now, but that could change if Miami dominates them this weekend. This game could be big for both programs in terms of getting to a bowl game. The Hokies have lost to Vanderbilt and most recently to Rutgers. The passing game looks like a disaster, which makes be question whether they can take advantage of Georgia Tech's weaknesses. I would favor Georgia Tech, but FPI thinks differently.

Game 10 vs Miami: ESPN's FPI Gives Miami a 78% chance to win the game (5-5, 3-4)

This is going to be a tough game for the Yellow Jackets to win. Miami's passing game looks elite through four games and considering how Georgia Tech's secondary looks, that could be a long night for Brent Key's team. Still, Miami has to prove they can be consistent, but they should be favored by quite a bit when this game comes around.

Game 11 vs NC State: ESPN's Gives Georgia Tech a 78% chance to win this game (6-5, 4-4)

NC State has looked awful this season and the outlook for their season does not look good right now. How will things look on a Thursday night in November? We'll see, but the Wolfpack have been a disaster right now. If things play out this way, then Georgia Tech will have clinched a second straight bowl bid in this game.

Game 12 vs Georgia: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia a 90% chance to win (6-6, 4-4)

The toughest game of Georgia Tech's season. The Yellow Jackets gave the Bulldogs a tough time right now and UGA just struggled to beat Kentucky, but they will be sizeable favorites in Athens on Black Friday.