Updated Game-by-Game ESPN FPI Win Projections For Georgia Tech After Their Win Over Georgia State

What does ESPN's FPI think of Georgia Tech After two games?

Aug 31, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) throws against Georgia State Panthers in the third quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Through two games, Georgia Tech has seen a big jump in their season projection from ESPN's FPI.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Before the season, FPI had Georgia Tech finishing 4-8. Where are the projections now after a 2-0 start for Georgia Tech, including a win over Florida State?

Game 3 at Syracuse: ESPN"s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 65.5% chance to win (3-0, 2-0 ACC)

The odds for this game have risen since Georgia Tech's 2-0 start. Before the season, FPI gave the Yellow Jackets a 52% chance to win this game. Now it is even more in Georgia Tech's favor.

Game 4 vs VMI: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 99.9% chance to win (4-0, 2-0)

This has not changed. The Yellow Jackets are still being given a very high chance to win this game.

Game 5 At Louisville: ESPN's FPI gives Louisville a 74% chance to win (4-1, 2-1)

FPI is projecting the first loss of the year for Georgia Tech to come on the road against Louisville. The projection before the season gave Louisville a 78% chance to win so it has come down just slightly. The Cardinals looked good in a win over Austin Peay, but this will be their first test of the season.

Game 6 vs Duke: ESPN's FPI Gives Georgia Tech a 79% chance to win (5-1, 3-1)

FPI shifted this game heavily in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Duke had an uninspiring game vs Elon over the weekend, but has a chance for a 2-0 start this weekend vs Northwestern.

Game 7 at North Carolina: ESPN's FPI Gives Georgia Tech a 55% chance to win (6-1, 4-1)

Keep an eye on North Carolina. They defeated Minnesota in week one, but quarterback Max Johnson is out for the season. The Tar Heels were not super impressive in their win, but they do have talent.

Game 8 vs Notre Dame: ESPN's FPI gives Notre Dame a 77% chance to win (6-2, 4-1)

This could be a massive game. Notre Dame went to Texas A&M and got a victory and they have a real chance to be undefeated when they play this game. The matchup between Georgia Tech's offense and Notre Dame's defense would be awesome. This is arguably the second-toughest game for the rest of the year for Georgia Tech.

Game 9 at Virginia Tech: ESPN"s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 63% chance to win (7-2, 5-1)

This is another game that has shifted in Georgia Tech's favor since the weekend. The Hokies were one of the preseason sleepers in the ACC, but they lost to Vanderbilt over the weekend. Despite the game being in Blacksburg, FPI likes Georgia Tech in this game.

Game 10 vs Miami: ESPN's FPI gives Miami a 58% chance to win (7-3, 5-2)

You could make the strong argument that these two teams have been the only impressive teams in the ACC so far this season. Miami throttled Florida on Saturday, while the Yellow Jackets have a win vs Florida State. This could even be a preview of the ACC Championship game. FPI slightly favors Miami to win.

Game 11 vs NC State: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 74% chance to win this game (8-3, 6-2)

FPI has swung Georgia Tech's final ACC game of the year heavily in their favor. NC State was a team that got a lot of love during the offseason, but they looked rough in their season opener vs Western Carolina. We will learn a lot about the Wolfpack over the next couple of weeks as they have matchups against Tennessee and Clemson in the coming weeks.

Game 12 vs Georgia: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia a 93% chance to win (8-4, 6-2)

As much as FPI has started to like Georgia Tech, they still think Georgia is a significant favorite in this game and the No. 1 team in the country. There is zero doubt this is the toughest game on the schedule for the Yellow Jackets, but this is the best chance they have had in years to break their losing streak to the Bulldogs.

FPI has gone from projecting Georgia Tech to finish 4-8 to 8-4. It has been a strong start for the Yellow Jackets and some of their tougher games on the schedule don't look quite as tough.