Updated Georgia Tech Game-By-Game Projections From ESPN's FPI After Week Five

How does ESPN's FPI project Georgia Tech's season to go after week five?

Sep 21, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Donald Chaney (21) tries to break free from the tackle of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defensive back Taye Seymore (7) during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech was off in week five, but all of their future opponents for the rest of the season were in action. Duke, Georgia Tech's next team on the schedule, remained undefeated by beating North Carolina, the team the Yellow Jackets play after them. Notre Dame defeated Louisville, Virginia Tech lost a heartbreaker vs Miami, NC State barely got by Northern Illinois, and Georgia lost an instant classic vs Alabama.

After all of these results. how does Georgia Tech's season outlook on ESPN's FPI look? After Week Four, FPI projected Georgia Tech to finish with a 6-6 record. Before the season, FPI had Georgia Tech finishing with a 4-8 record.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Here are the FPI projections for the rest of the season.

Game 6 vs Duke: ESPN's FPI Gives Georgia Tech a 67.1% chance to win (4-2, 2-2)

Duke rolls into this game undefeated and riding high after beating their arch rival North Carolina, but FPI still likes them to beat the Blue Devils and Georgia Tech did open as a touchdown favorite.

Game 7 at North Carolina: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 54.7% chance to win (5-2, 3-2)

Interestingly enough, Georgia Tech's FPI odds to win this game decreased despite the Tar Heels blowing a 20-point lead to Duke.

Game 8 vs Notre Dame: ESPN's FPI Gives Notre Dame an 83.6 % chance to win (5-3, 3-2)

Notre Dame beat Louisville a week after the Cardinals beat Georgia Tech and their odds to win this game rose just slightly. This will be a challenging game for Georgia Tech, but Notre Dame did suffer a loss as a 28-point favorite earlier this year.

Game 9 at Virginia Tech: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 60.9% chance to win this game (5-4, 3-3)

This game was nearly a 50-50 decision last week, but after the Hokies performance against Miami, their odds went up, which is a little strange considering Virginia Tech is now 2-3. Will the Hokies let the final call against Miami affect them going forward or will they take the good things from the game and use them as a spring board forward?

Game 10 vs Miami: ESPN's FPI Gives Miami a 75% chance to win the game (5-5, 3-4)

Miami looked shaky for the first time all season and that caused their odds to win this game to drop by three percent. Miami still looks very formidable though and the passing attack could certainly give Georgia Tech some issues.

Game 11 vs NC State: ESPN's Gives Georgia Tech a 75% chance to win this game (6-5, 4-4)

NC State won yesterday, but did so in the ugliest fashion as they could possibly imagine. Their offense failed to gain more than 200 yards vs Northern Illinois and they continue to be one of the most disappointing teams in the ACC.

Game 12 vs Georgia: ESPN's FPI gives Georgia a 92.6% chance to win (6-6, 4-4)

Georgia might have lost to Alabama, but their odds to win this game rose nearly three-percent.