What do FPI and SP+ Predict for Georgia Tech's Matchup With UCF?

Both FPI and SP+ see a very difficult game for Georgia Tech against UCF

Georgia Tech is going to be heading out on the road for the first time this season as the Yellow Jackets take on UCF in Orlando. Georgia Tech is going to be a three-touchdown underdog this Saturday, but the betting markets are not the only system that is not giving the Yellow Jackets much of a chance this Saturday. 

Georgia Tech has a tough matchup against UCF on Saturday / Georgia Tech Athletics

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

FPI is not giving Georgia Tech much of a chance on Saturday, with UCF having a 92.4% chance of getting the win. This has been a theme for Georgia Tech, with FPI giving them usually only a 10-15% to win their games this season. 

One of the other popular analytical systems that is out there is Bill Connelly's SP+ system. Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:

"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

For the game against UCF on Saturday, SP+ is giving UCF a 90% chance to win the game and is predicting a 39-17 win for UCF on Saturday. 

It is going to be a tough game on Saturday for the Yellow Jackets and we will see if they are able to bounce back. 

Georgia Tech vs UCF is slated to kickoff at 4:00 on Saturday and the game will be broadcast on ESPNU. 

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