What Does ESPN's FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup Against Duke on Saturday?

FPI is giving Georgia Tech a 67.3% to defeat Duke

Georgia Tech is coming off a bye week that couldn't have come at a better time for the team. The Yellow Jackets had played the most games of any team until this past week. It was a great week to hit reset and get healthy, while Georgia Tech worked out some of the issues they faced at this point in the season. Some of the concerns going into the bye week have been the running game and offensive line. Two areas that are usually good for Georgia Tech and are considered strengths. In terms of protecting star quarterback Haynes King, the Yellow Jackets have done that, but the gaps and lanes created in the running game have been minimal. Against ACC opponents, the Yellow Jackets have struggled to muster up more than 120 yards in a game. Against Louisville, the Yellow Jackets rushed for 98 yards and 37 carries which is 2.6 yards per carry. This category will need to be better if the Yellow Jackets want to get back to the usual balance they are known for on offense. 

Duke is 5-0 for the first time since 1994. Duke had an incredible comeback win after trailing 20-0 late in the third quarter and it was ushered in by a great defense that created pressure and star running back Star Thomas carried the offense. Until that comeback, Duke was 1-72 when trailing by 20 points in program history. It was definitely an emotional win for the Blue Devils and it will be interesting to see how they respond going against the Yellow Jackets. 

Coming into the game, Georgia Tech is a huge favorite in their matchup against Duke, opening as an 8.5-point favorite. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 67.3% chance of winning the game. Georgia Tech has won three consecutive games in the series including a thrilling 23-20 overtime win in 2022 when the teams last faced. Georgia Tech leads the all-time series 54-35. Georgia Tech has dropped to the No. 8 team in the ACC after Week 5, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index. The Yellow Jackets trail Miami, Louisville, Clemson, SMU, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. Georgia Tech is also the No. 49 ranked team according to the index and has dropped eight spots in the poll. 

Georgia Tech will be on the national stage again with its matchup against Duke being broadcast on the ACC Network primetime window at 8:00 PM. The Yellow Jackets have now been in primetime in five of the last six home games and for the fourth time in that period, they will be featured in the ACC Network top-tier spot. It will be another opportunity for Georgia Tech to show the country what they are made of. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.