What Does ESPN’s FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup With Florida State?

Florida State is given an 80% chance to win on Saturday

Georgia Tech vs Florida State will meet this Saturday at the Aviva Stadium. / RTE News

Georgia Tech comes into the season fresh off a 7-6 record under head coach Brent Key which marked their first winning season since 2018 under head coach Paul Johnson when the team finished with the same record. There is a lot of optimism around the program going into 2024 after making a bowl game and defeating UCF. The Yellow Jackets also just landed one of the best prospects since 2004 when five-star Josh Petty chose to be a Yellow Jacket.  

The Yellow Jackets are a heavy underdog against the defending ACC champions. Let’s take a look at what ESPN’s FPI says about the matchup and the chance they give Georgia Tech on Saturday in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Dublin, Ireland against Florida State. 

Georgia Tech vs Florida State 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

ESPN’s FPI gives Florida State a 79.7% chance to win Saturday’s matchup. Georgia Tech is currently ranked #54 according to ESPN’s FPI and is ranked as the 12th-best team in the ACC. Florida State is ranked #11 in the country according to the poll. 

I think Georgia Tech has a better chance to win in this game than what is depicted in the FPI. The Yellow Jackets possess an explosive offense and had the 13th-best rushing attack in the country rushing for 204 yards per game in 2023. Georgia Tech also returns one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, Haynes King. King made several preseason lists including the 2024 Maxwell Award (national player of the year), and Davey O’Brien Award (quarterback), and placed fifth in ACC Preseason Player of the Year. 

This game will come down to the defense and how much they have improved under Georgia Tech’s new defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci. Georgia Tech ranked 104th in points allowed (30.5) in 2023. The Yellow Jackets were also the third-worst rushing defense, the defense gave up an average of 226 yards per game. If this unit can become a top 50 in the country, Georgia Tech has a shot to make some noise. Week 1 doesn’t provide a better test for the Yellow Jackets going up against an experienced offensive line and an experienced quarterback in DJ Uiagelelei. 

As far as projections for the season, Georgia Tech is expected to win 4.9-7.2 in 2024 according to ESPN’s FPI. The same rating gives the Yellow Jackets a 36% chance to reach six wins and a 1.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff this upcoming season.

Another thing to note is Georgia Tech has the ninth toughest strength of schedule (SOS) and plays five teams ranked in the top 25 according to ESPN’s FPI which includes Georgia (#1), Notre Dame (#7), Florida State (#11), Louisville (#21), and Miami (#23). Three of the five teams will play the Yellow Jackets in the final five weeks of the regular season. Talk about a tough finish to the season. We will find out what this Yellow Jacket team is made of come December after enduring that tough stretch of games. For now they will begin the season with the #11 team to see what they are made of.