What Does ESPN’s FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup With Georgia State?

Georgia Tech is given an 77.6% chance to win

Aug 24: Georgia Tech's Zach Pyron celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Florida State at Aviva Stadium.Tom Maher, INPHO Via USA TODAY Sports

After a great upset and program-defining win against Florida State in Ireland, the Yellow Jackets turn the page to their next opponent, Georgia State. The Yellow Jackets have been in the national spotlight since their win with head coach Brent Key appearing on ESPN and the Rich Eisen Show. Key was also named Bobby Dodd Trophy Coach of the Week. QB Haynes King was named ACC Player of the Week. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Compared to last week, Georgia Tech is a heavy favorite to beat their Atlanta neighbor by 21 points going into the primetime matchup at 8:00 PM on ACC Network. ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 78.2% chance of defeating Georgia State after their win against the Seminoles. The percentage has gone down 0.6% since that point to 77.6%. In the grand scheme of things it probably will not make a major difference. A thing to note is that this will be the debut of the Dell McGee era for Georgia State after he spent eight seasons with the Georgia Bulldogs as an assistant coach. 

I think Georgia State will be a good football team in a few years under Coach McGee, especially as he gets his hands on more recruiting classes and builds the program. I think Georgia Tech will have a lot of talent on the field and it could be tough for the Panthers to contend with. The Yellow Jackets are in a good spot and have some of the best players in the country in King, Jamal Haynes, Eric Singleton, and Kyle Efford. There is a question I have going into this matchup, however. 

I think one of the biggest questions is how Georgia Tech will respond to the spotlight. I won’t say success because the Yellow Jackets had a very successful season under Coach Key in 2023 and followed that up with a huge win against Florida State in a game they controlled. They can respond and handle success. Georgia Tech has been a team that has been overlooked by the national media, but now they will garner more attention. Georgia Tech is a talented team that has talent all over the field and has an elite coaching staff. How will the Yellow Jackets handle national attention? 

After the win against the Seminoles, ESPN's FPI has moved the Yellow Jackets 17 spots to #37. Prior to week 1, Georgia Tech was ranked as the #54 team. Other numbers have also changed for the Yellow Jackets including the projection to win six games up from 36% to 77% and to make the College Football Playoff up from 1.5% to now 10%. Georgia Tech is also ranked as the No. 7 team in the ACC after the win. The Yellow Jackets still have a ways to go, but getting an FPI top 15 win against Florida State does great at building towards what you want to accomplish for the season.