What Does ESPN's FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup With Louisville?

Louisville is being given an 78.3 chance to win according to ESPN's FPI

Photo Via Arvon Bacon (SI)

Georgia Tech is coming off a dominant performance against VMI where the Yellow Jackets put up a season-high 59 points. It was a complete performance on both sides of the ball as Georgia Tech gave up a season-low seven points and only 104 yards of offense last Saturday. The defense looked improved vs the passing game and the Yellow Jackets were able to have their best game creating pressure and got home with three sacks on the day. True freshman Tah’j Butler saw more snaps and was the leading tackler for the Yellow Jackets finishing with five tackles and also blew up a screenplay that resulted in a loss. 

Another huge week looms for the Yellow Jackets as they prepare for No. 19 Louisville. It will be the toughest matchup Georgia Tech has faced this season as the Cardinals boast one of the best offenses in college football. Louisville is No. 4 in total yards in the country and has a balanced attack with 655 yards through the air and 526 yards on the ground in 2024. The Cardinals are also ranked as the No.2 offense in the ACC. 

Coming into the game, Georgia Tech is a huge underdog in their matchup against Louisville, opening as a 10.5-point underdog. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 21.7% chance of winning the game. Louisville picked up its only win in the series last year in the season opener in a 39-34 victory. Georgia Tech leads the all-time series 2-1. Since their win against VMI, Georgia Tech has moved up a spot and is now ranked as the No. 5 team in the ACC after Week 3, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index. The Yellow Jackets trail Miami, Louisville, Clemson, and Boston College. The Yellow Jackets will get a chance to face two of those teams this season, with one of the games being at Bobby Dodd (Miami).

Georgia Tech will once again be in the national spotlight with its matchup against Louisville being broadcast on ESPN2. Head coach Brent Key is 5-0 vs ranked ACC opponents in his career with the Yellow Jackets. Saturday will be another great test for the program to see where they are among the elite in the ACC.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.