What does ESPN's FPI Say About the Yellow Jackets Matchup Against North Carolina This Weekend?

Georgia Tech given a 56.7% chance to win this game by ESPN's FPI

Oct 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets wide receiver Malik Rutherford (8) celebrates with offensive lineman Tyler Gibson (74) after a touchdown against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the first half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech is coming off a huge ACC win against rival Duke which handed them their first loss of the season. It was a solid defensive effort for the Yellow Jackets who held Duke to a season-low 14 points. The Yellow Jackets were able to create pressure and stifled the Blue Devils rushing attack holding them to under 100 yards. The offense took over the game in the fourth quarter scoring 14 unanswered points after trailing 14-10 early in the fourth to seal the victory. The offensive line deserves a lot of credit for helping the Yellow Jackets rush for 245 yards and not allowing Haynes King to be sacked once. It was a strong effort and they imposed their will. 

UNC comes in at 3-3 and has hit a bit of a lull, losing three consecutive games after starting the season 3-0. The Tar Heels are 0-2 in the ACC so far. They recently lost to Pittsburgh whose true freshman quarterback Eli Holstein threw for a career-high 381 yards in a win last week. With the explosiveness that Georgia Tech has on offense, they can take full advantage with their veteran QB and electric playmakers.

Coming into the game, Georgia Tech is a road favorite in their matchup against North Carolina, opening as a six-point favorite. ESPN’s FPI gives the Yellow Jackets a 56.7% chance of winning the game. Georgia Tech has risen three spots since their win against Duke to No. 46. Their chances to hit six wins have also increased to 74.5%. Georgia Tech is still ranked as the No. 8 team in the ACC behind Miami, Louisville, SMU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and California. Georgia Tech has won three consecutive games in the series against North Carolina and leads the all-time series 33-21-3. 

You may remember last year’s thrilling home victory against ranked UNC last year in primetime. It was a program-changing win for Georgia Tech as they made their first bowl game since 2018 last year. It will be a great opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to pick up another big ACC win and advance to 3-2 in conference play. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."