What Does SP+ and ESPN's FPI Predict for Georgia Tech's Matchup With Virginia Tech?

Both analytics models expect a close game with Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech

The betting market is expecting a close game between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, with the spread sitting at only three points in favor of Virginia Tech. 

Oddsmakers usually have a good idea of how teams match up with each other and this is one of the few times this year that Georgia Tech has only been a slight underdog. Duke was a similar type of favorite a few weeks ago in Atlanta and the Yellow Jackets emerged victorious. 

Georgia Tech is a slight underdog in most analytical models against Virginia Tech / Atlanta Journal-Constitution-Credit: Don Juan Moore

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

This week, FPI is giving Virginia Tech a 60.5% chance to win. 

SP+ is on the side of the Hokies as well but think it will be larger than the three-point spread set by Vegas. 

Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:

"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

This week, SP+ has Virginia Tech as a 5.5-point projected winner. It has Virginia Tech winning 26-20. 

I also expect a close game from both of these teams and for it to be low-scoring. It will be up to the Yellow Jackets to prove both systems wrong and get their fourth win of the season. 

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