2025 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Gonzaga No. 2 seed in early ESPN prediction

Gonzaga could face two NCAA Tournament teams at the Battle 4 Atlantis — Arizona (projected 3-seed) and Indiana (projected 4-seed)

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

Life outside the power conferences in college athletics isn’t going to get any easier.

As the 27 leagues outside of the Power Five are set to pay $990 million over a 10-year period to thousands of current and former student-athletes as part of a landmark settlement for the NCAA in resolving three antitrust cases, it’s apparent that the opportunities for mid-majors to shine on the game’s biggest stage are dwindling.

In the latest 2025 NCAA Tournament bracketology update from ESPN's Joe Lunardi, only one school from a non-power conference — Saint Mary’s — is projected to earn one of the 36 at-large bids. That would mark the fewest non-power league at-large bids since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011. Since the field expanded, teams outside the power conferences have averaged just over seven at-large bids.

Lunardi’s latest projection is also a stark contrast to how last season’s tournament selection process panned out. Eight non-power schools (five from the Mountain West alone) earned at-large bids, the most since 2014. That includes the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who certainly don’t operate like a mid-major program, though their affiliation with the West Coast Conference, which ranked 11th out of the 32 conferences last season on KenPom, justifies their inclusion. 

Conference realignment has obviously played a role in the recent paradigm shift in college basketball. In addition to laying claim over a few Pac-12 schools this past year, the Big 12 brought in BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston from non-power leagues to form a 16-team conference next fall. As other leagues like the Big Ten and ACC grow and opportunities to schedule premier nonconference opponents dwindle, non-power schools will have greater difficulty putting together a strong NCAA Tournament resume.

The Zags haven’t had such problems in trying to schedule high-profile nonconference opponents in recent years. The trend will likely continue in the 2024-25 season: UConn, Kentucky, UCLA, San Diego State and the Battle 4 Atlantis field should be worthy tests outside of WCC play. Mark Few is set to return seven of his top eight scorers from last season (four of five starters) and added Pepperdine transfer and All-WCC wing Michael Ajayi, Arkansas grad transfer Khalif Battle, Tarleton State transfer Emmanuel Innocenti and Colgate transfer Braeden Smith (redshirt in 2024-25).

A strong nonconference schedule and a talented roster has the Bulldogs as a projected No. 2 seed in ESPN’s latest bracketology, which would send them cross-state to Seattle for the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Lunardi predicts Kentucky (7-seed) and USC (10-seed) will be placed in the West Region and the winner would be Gonzaga’s hypothetical opponent in the second round. Boise State, led by former Gonzaga assistant Leon Rice, would be a potential matchup in the Sweet 16, as the Broncos are slated to be an 11-seed in the West.

ESPN’s four No. 1 seeds are Kansas (top overall), Duke, Houston and UConn. Alabama, which returned All-American Mark Sears last week, is the top-ranked No. 2 seed. Iowa State and Auburn are also on the 2-seed line. 

Gonzaga could see two NCAA Tournament teams at the Battle 4 Atlantis — Arizona (3-seed) and Indiana (4-seed) — while the Bruins checked in as a 7-seed in Lunardi’s bracketology. Counting UConn and Kentucky, the Bulldogs could potentially face five NCAA Tournament teams outside of WCC based on ESPN’s outlook.

Saint Mary’s is the only conference opponent that is slated to earn a tournament bid in Lunardi’s bracketology. Despite losing impactful starters Aidan Mahaney (UConn) and Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State), the Gaels are projected to slide in as a “Last Four In” team, which would put them in a First Four game against one of Missouri, Nebraska or Pitt, according to Lunardi.

San Francisco had been on ESPN’s bubble before Jonathan Mogbo, the reigning WCC Newcomer of the Year, announced he’s keeping his name in the 2024 NBA Draft.